For those of us who are conservative political junkies, tomorrow, Friday, January 30, is a big day. That's when the 168 Republican National Committee members who have gathered in Washington, D.C. vote to pick a new chairman.

The six contenders have been politicking and playing a bit of hardball for the past several months, and now, the issue will soon be resolved. None of the six expect to tally up the necessary 85 votes to win on the first ballot, and most insiders expect the voting to drag on to three, four, or five ballots. Apparently, the RNC rules allow contenders to stay in for each ballot, even if they are the low vote recipient.

One of the six -- Chip Saltsmann -  dropped out this evening, leaving Saul Anuzis as the sole candidate in the race under fifty years of age. Any of the remaining five could emerge victorious at the end of the day, and that possibility makes the vote all the more intriguing.

AP handicapped the race today as follows:

Republicans say it's all but certain no one will get a majority on the first ballot when the 168-member RNC votes. Republicans say Duncan leads in endorsements for a second two-year term, with Steele, Dawson and Anuzis in competitive positions, while Blackwell trails. Saltsman is by far the longest shot, Republicans say.

 

Most recent counts depending on which source you choose, break down committed votes as follows:  Michael Duncan 44, Michael Steele 30, Saul Anuzis, Ken Blackwell, Katon Dawson, all around 16, with about 46 uncommitted. (the numbers change pretty regularly). Chip Saltsman, apparently, is a non-factor. 

Conventional wisdom is that Duncan needs to win in the first round or second ballot. If not, his support may start to drop quickly.

Of the three remaining candidates other than Saul - Steele, Dawson, Blackwell -- all have weaknesses which have been documented elsewhere which suggest that each one of them would be objectionable in major ways to a significant number of RNC members.

Only Saul Anuzis has no major flaws, and is generally considered to be the second choice among many who support the other four contenders. He certainly does not have the kind of "not this guy under any circumstances" objections that hold back some of the other candidates.

Saul brings an upbeat, Reagan optimism to the task of "rebuilding" the Republican Party, and that personal charisma and positive attitude have helped him win over friends among his fellow RNC members, if not committed first ballot supporters.

He is widely acknowledged to be the most technologically savvy of the RNC Chair candidates, and his relentless use of Twitter, Facebook, cell phones, and any other communication device driven by electrons is legendary among supporters and foes alike.

As an early supporter of Saul for RNC Chair, I can personally attest to his accessibility and his relentless use of modern technology, seemingly on a 24-7 basis. I'm sure he sleeps, but it's not unusual to exchange a dozen Twitter messages with Saul at midnight

If the RNC vote tomorrow extends into a third ballot and beyond, look for Saul to be the guy who starts to add more supporters. It would be a great first step for the Republican Party to take back Congress in 2010 if he emerges as the new RNC Chair.