In the cold light of day, this week's primary is giving me a warm glow.

I don't know why the media and the rainmakers want to compare primary elections to general elections, but they do.  One election is supposed to allow us to choose among candidates so that in the other election we can choose between candidates.  It is NOT an apples-to-apples comparison, but rather a tomatoes-to-potatoes comparison - but, hey, they sound the same.

I suspect that most of us want to use the primary to handicap the general, so here it goes:

Look at the Pierce County primary election returns starting with this premise:  seven Democrats vote in the Pierce County primary for every five Republicans. In other words, if you add up the total Democrat votes in a given partisan contested race it should be, say, about 54-58% of the total. The 2004 primary (pick-a-party) showed 85,354 Democrats participating in the primary but only 57,301 Republicans - a little more than 7 to 5. And in the 2006 primary (also pick-a-party) it was 66,607 D's and 49,579 R's - a bit less than 7 to 5.  In 2008, without pick-a-party, it would seem harder to judge who came out to vote.

Moore Information, Inc,  a Portland polling firm, has data that suggests that "perfect voters" (voted in four of the last four elections), obviously the most likely to vote in the primary, are 46% Democrat and 35% Republican - only a little less than 7 to 5.   We also have PCO voting. Remember, voters are asked to vote for either a Republican or a Democrat for PCO depending on what Party the voters consider themselves.

So, if we were to aggregate how many voted for a Democrat or Republican PCO we should get a pretty good indication of the primary voter makeup.  In Pierce County - 31,028 voters (so far) voted for Democrat PCOs and 27,589 voted for Republican PCOs - closer to a 7 to 6 ratio, but well within the historical 7 to 5 norms.

Ok, so in Pierce County Democrats vote in the primary more than Republicans. So what?

So look at the close primary races and see whether the candidates' historical numbers have changed or whether they are significantly outside the 7 to 5 (54-58%) Democrat margins. If they are NOT outside the margins then you cannot draw any conclusions. If they ARE outside the margins, then there is crossover and one party's voters are crossing over to support another party's candidates. This is a significant indicator of strength or weakness.

Here are some examples:

28th District Senate:  Republican Mike Carrell in his first run for the senate "lost" to his Democrat rival in the 2004 primary 12,250 to 9,170 -  a 57% Democrat "win"  (almost exactly the 7 to 5 ratio).  Yet Mike went on to win the seat in the general election 25,159 to 22,903.  This year in defending that seat he has so far gotten 9,838 votes to his opponent's 9,552.   That is a way outside the 7 to 5 margin (a 50+% Republican "win") and shows significant Democrat and Independent crossover.  Mike should be very pleased with his chances for returning to the Senate.  He should also continue to work his buns off.

2nd District Senate:  Long time Democrat Senator Marilyn Rasmussen won her 2000 primary with 56% of the vote reflecting the 7 to 5 ratio.  Her 2004 primary "win" dropped to 54%, just on the edge of the 7 to 5 ratio showing some crossover to her Republican opponent.  (Truth in advertising:  that opponent was me).  Marilyn went on to win the general election in 2000 with 57% but saw a significant drop in her support in 2004 with only a 52% margin.  This year Marilyn is only garnering barely over 50% against Republicans meaning a lot of Democrat and Independent crossover.  Randi Becker, Marilyn's very credible Republican challenger, should be keeping an eye out for Olympia Senate office furniture as long as she keeps knocking on doors and putting out signs like she has been.

Dino, sorry, the Governor's Race:  In 2004, the Pierce Couny Democrats gave 82,361 votes to Democrat gubernatorial candidates, while Republican candidates garnered only 54,943.  Democrats "won" that primary at 59.98%. At the general election, however, Dino won Pierce County 50.8% to 46.8% - close to a 13,000 vote margin. This year, the primary race is much tighter with Christine receiving 52,560 votes to Dino's 49,344 - a 51% Democat "win". But based on a 7 to 5 analysis Christine should be winning with somewhat closer to 54-58% so already there is a 3-4% primary crossover that if it carries to the general may result in an even larger margin in the general election than the 13,000 vote margin of 2004 - maybe even 25,000 (plus 129, of course).

Attorney General:  In the 2004 primary race for AG, the Democrats had two candidates running as did the Republicans.  The total count showed that the Democrats "won" their primary races at 61% (79,803 to 50,922).  This would indicate that not only did the Democrat AG candidates get their base, but a portion of the Republican votes as well.  But the general election was won by (very) Republican Rob McKenna by one of the largest Republican margins in recent memory - a 54% to 42% win with a 35,000 vote margin. 

This year the Democrat candidate, who also enjoys being the home town hero as the sitting two term County Executive, is losing to Rob McKenna 54,090 to 50,484 in his own county.  This 51% to 48% Republican edge means that there is a lot of Democrat and Independent shift to the Republicans when it should be shifting the other way because of John Ladenburg's home court advantage. The general election does not look good for John - the fat lady isn't singing yet, but she is definitely humming. The comment I gave to the TNT was that John Ladenburg is toast. If he can't even win a primary in his home county as the sitting County Exec then the only question is how burned is the toast.

8th District Congress: This is a harder call since the 7 to 5 ratio is based on Pierce County experience and the district is, by population, 80% in King County.  But I can point to the obvious.  In Republican Congressman Dave Reichert's first run in 2004 the Democrats "won" the primary casting 81,172 votes for Democrats while the Republicans could only amass 72,215 - a 52.9% advantage to our Democrat friends.  BUT if the 7 to 5 ratio were to apply, the 52.9% "D" win would show that there was perhaps even then a little Democrat and Independent crossover. 

Dave Reichert won the general election handily 172,298 to 157,148 - 51% to 46%.  In his first defense of the Congressional seat in 2006, Republican Dave Reichert "lost" the primary again - this time by a bit over 2000 votes - 54,776 to 52,598. This 51% Democrat Darcy Burner "win" is still outside the 7 to 5 margin and would still reflect a small to medium crossover from Democrat and Independent voters but it is hard to quantify. Dave Reichert still won the general election in a big Democrat year 51.5% to 48.5% garnering a 7,000+ vote margin 90% of which came from Pierce County. 

This year, Dave is actually "winning" a primary for the first time enjoying a 3.1% advantage over the same Darcy Burner as in 2006. That sounds to me like there is a large crossover in progress. But Darcy sure has money. She bought lots of TV ads to Dave Reichert's none and a 12-page slick Oprah-like magazine mailed only to the district's women voters. What Darcy is probably finding out is that it's pretty darned difficult to spend enough money to counteract the positive image of Dave as the Green River killer catcher and as a successful elected sheriff with some 30+ years of public service - especially when Darcy has none.

If there are any conclusions to be drawn from the above, even though we are comparing tomatoes to potatoes, it would be these:

A.  It is difficult if not impossible to predict the outcome of the general election using the outcome of the primary election.  On the other hand IF you can detect anomalies in candidate support in the primary, like crossover voting, then you can use that fact to further wedge a candidate from his or her base in the general election.

B.  Dino, Dave Reichert, Rob McKenna and maybe even Doug Sutherland (Lands Commissioner) may be receiving significant crossover.  They look very good for the general - but only if they keep working.  There is also great potential for taking back some House and Senate seats in Olympia thereby preventing a Democrat override of Governor Rossi's budget vetoes.

C.  Ladenburg is toast.

D   More Democrats show up for primary elections, caususes, and coventions than do Republicans. Why? I haven't got a clue. But we've got to change it.

E.  Ladenburg is toast.