California Senator Barbara Boxer has the weight of incumbency that keeps Senators in office into perpetuity barring chance encounters with dead girls or live boys. As of June 30, she has a campaign warchest of over $5 million. And her likely Republican opponents include a conservative assemblyman from Orange County with little state-wide name recognition and a former CEO whose corporate track record and $45 million severance package will provide plenty of fodder.

And yet there are some telltale signs that Senator Boxer still doesn't feel too comfortable looking ahead to 2010, if you know where to look. One of the more prominent Congressional Democrats in the world of Twitter, her campaign has Tweeted out the importance of building up a strong online fundraising operation. The Boxer camp aims to raise $100,000 dollars before the 3rd quarter deadline for FEC campaign finance reports. That's not a bad haul for a week in US Senate campaigns, and you can bet she and every other lawmaker is dialing for dollars like crazy as September 30 approaches.

There's some evidence that her voting record is also undergoing some minor treatment as an election year approaches. Generally considered fellow San Franciscan Dianne Feinstein's more liberal counterpart, Boxer actually voted with DiFi to defund ACORN last week! Obviously, more image enhancement is needed than a single vote to reestablish Boxer's street cred with independent voters, but anytime a Democrat can distance themselves from Roland Burris is a good thing to do.

And there's some evidence of national Democratic organizations having some similar concerns for Senator Boxer's seat come next year, firing off shots at her opponents in attempt to define them as wrong for California (or Carlyfornians?) before they have a chance to take on Boxer herself.

Now before I consider the above question, a general caveat is in order. 14 months is still an eternity in elections. In addition to being able to raise millions of dollars between now and the end of June 2010, Senator Boxer has access to constituent services and staff that her opponents simply can't have. Combine that with unpredictable shifts in the state and national political environment, and come next year Boxer's seat may well be out of reach. At this stage in the game, everything going on is part of the prologue of next year's election, with posturing and defining of candidates and issues in hopes that any candidate can gain an advantage over an opponent.

So with that in mind, let's consider the titular question. There's been enough polling out to suggest that Senator Boxer is not invincible. Seeing as Boxer has always been a prickly bomb-throwing type, the right Republican can run away with the independent vote and peel off moderate Democrats in the Sacramento area and SoCal to give Babs a serious run for her money. The question is who is the right Republican for the job? And depending on whether that Republican is state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore or former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, we may very well know who Senator Boxer is scared of right now.

My bet? Carly, partially because polls do show her just a hair outside the margin of error against Boxer and has the potential to be a moderate, business-savvy candidate that would play very well in a state crippled by poor business decisions. But also because of the attacks the DSCC and the DNC have levied against Boxer's opponents, the most acidic and incisive have been against Ms. Fiorina. Her very spotty voting record has been called out, along with aforementioned golden parachute from HP and her dismissal from the McCain campaign in 2008. And of course, who could forget the absolutely, positively GHASTLY CarlyforCalifornia.com and its panning by the lefty bloggers of the world.

Indeed, take those flubs into account, and Carly may find herself buggering out of the Senate race out of a lack of desire to deal with the aggravations of a campaign. If so, that might turn out to be a big win for Boxer. DeVore, while a favorite of the conservative wing of the California GOP, has a massive name recognition and cash disadvantage against Boxer that would make his campaign an uphill battle, especially without a credible primary opponent to run against. Conservatives would really need to put their money where their mouths are for him to have the ammunition to take out Boxer next year. If that happens and the polls stay within single digits two months away from Election Day, Senator Boxer may find herself with a new opponent to be scared of. And that's a far worse time of the year to start getting afraid.

But for heaven's sake, just don't call her ma'am.