Officials in Mr. Obama's campaign say they are bullish on the South, and they have signaled their aggressiveness with early campaign appearances in North Carolina and Virginia, major voter registration drives in the region, and television advertising in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.

"If you go in and look at the number of unregistered voters in demographic groups that are important to Barack's candidacy -- younger voters, African-American voters -- the potential is just incredible," Mr. Hildebrand said.

More from the New York Times...


Then again, there is a differing opinion...

The South Will Fall Again
Keep in mind that this analysis (and the speculation that Mr. Obama will generate unprecedented black turnout in the South) does not consider the possibility that white voter turnout will rise, too. Passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Act led to an upsurge in black voting in the South, but it also caused many white Southerners to register and vote as well -- for the Republicans... Virginia, however, is the one Southern state that Mr. Obama has a reasonable chance of winning. And it's precisely because the home of Robert E. Lee...is seceding from the Confederacy. The demographic makeup of the electorate in Virginia is unlike that of any other state in the South. The black population in Virginia is, as a percentage, among the lowest in the region. And during the last two decades, the state has also experienced a huge influx of upscale non-Southerners, who have taken over the Washington suburbs of northern Virginia... In the rest of the South, Mr. Obama cannot overcome reality. Even if unprecedented numbers of black voters turn out to vote for him, the white vote will serve as a formidable counterbalance. Mr. Obama should not hope to capture states in the country's most racially polarized region.

For the complete New York Times article, click here.