The results of the most recent poll in the race for King County executive were released Tuesday morning by the Washington Poll. The results show current councilman Dow Constantine leading Susan Hutchison by a margin of 13 points, with 19 percent of the 400 likely voters surveyed in King County still undecided.

The Washington Poll is sponsored by the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race, and Sexuality (WISER) a research center at the University of Washington. Dr. Matt Barreto, associate professor of political science, directs WISER and was one of the principal investigators involved with this most recent poll. By e-mail, Barreto confirmed that, in order to construct a likely voter model, one-third of the responses in King County came from inside Seattle and two-thirds were from the rest of King County.

The Washington Poll results represent a sharp contrast to October 13 release of the KING 5 poll done by SurveyUSA, a professional polling firm. That survey of more than 500 voters had Hutchison increasing her lead to five points against Constantine, 47-42.

SurveyUSA's poll was taken on a single day -- October 12 -- while the Washington Poll gathered its responses over a twelve-day period -- October 14 through October 26.  That time period during which the Washington Poll's data was gathered was marked by a series of televised debates, breaking Public Disclosure Commission complaints and investigations, and an ever-escalating war of words between Hutchison and Constantine.

A silver lining may be hard to find for Hutchison but if one exists it can be found in the large number of undecided voters and where those voters live. While only nine percent of the responses from Seattle voters are reported as undecided, a whopping 32 percent of those outside of Seattle told the survey gatherers that they had not made a decision of who to support in the race.

Constantine has struggled to shake off his own brand as a son of Seattle in order to reach rural and suburban voters, while Hutchison operates from a background as a communicator to the entire region. If Constantine cannot quickly remedy his inability to connect with the vast population outside of the downtown Seattle liberalopolis, ballots dropping in mailboxes between now and next Tuesday evening could add significant numbers toward a possible Hutchison victory.

Another ray of hope emerges when looking more closely at some of the past polling done by the Washington Poll on non-statewide races, as compared to actual election results. In 2007 the group published results of a survey taken of voter intent on Proposition 1. The sample in that poll was comprised of voters in the Regional Transportation Investment District and Sound Transit's Regional Transit Authority, a demographic and geographic sample much closer in size and demographics to King County. The Prop.1 poll reported 44 percent intending to vote yes, 46 percent intending to vote no, and 11 percent undecided, with the same time left in the election as with the recent 2009 poll. The official election results had Proposition 1 going down to defeat 55-45.

If "No on Prop. 1" cohort also identifies with Susan Hutchison's more moderate positions on transportation policy, and is attracted by her stated commitment to get the County's budget and operations reined in, on November 4 the Washington Poll could be affirmed as accurate and still have pointed the arrow of victory toward the wrong candidate.

All of this translates into the possibility that a very close finish could be the culmination of a very contentious general election. King County voters are accustomed by now to elections that do not end on Election Night, but it would be ironic if one of the central issues of the campaign -- the emergency posed by the unreliability of the Howard Hanson Dam to control flooding in the Green River Valley -- were to become a reality affecting actual ballot counting in a tight race?

If the King County Elections Office is forced to relocate its operations during a possible second or third count, what laws govern the procedure to ensure the accuracy and legitimacy of the count? Can candidates claim rainmakers as a legitimate campaign expense?

(Food for thought: A point of curiosity arose during the researching of this article concerning the Washington Poll's use of the official Washington State seal on their Web site. [See a screen grab below.] Although the group operates under the auspices of the University of Washington, a state-run university, it is not an agency of state government.

The use of the state seal, or any official-looking seals, by non-governmental entities is strictly prohibited by law, unless its use has been expressly authorized by the Secretary of State. The use of the seal could mislead visitors to the site and create the impression that the results of their poll were an official statement of the State of Washington regarding the predicted results of a county election.

A message was left with Washington Assistant Secretary of State Steve Excell to inquire about Washington Poll's authority to use the seal. An update to this will be posted as soon as more information is available.)