Cross-posted at the FlashReport...

Ok, The San Diego Primary Election Contest results are in (see prior post if you missed the opportunity to awe your fellow political hacks with your savvy predictions).

The response was pretty overwhelming for the blogs, with nearly 40 respondents! Before I announce the winners, first a recap of the questions, the correct answers and a brief analysis of the responses on each, as well as some creative comments that were occasionally included:

Question #1: 75th Assembly - Name the winner of the Republican nomination.

Correct Answer - Nathan Fletcher. This one was a throw away, worth zero points if answered correctly, but if wrong I wasn't going to waste my time with the rest of the guesses. Fortunately, everyone got it right. Actually, one respondent nearly muffed it, initially answering Martin Garrick, only to email again and say "Oops," he had mis-read the district number.

"Cutest" Answer - "Mindy's husband...I forgot his name."

Question #2: San Diego Mayor - Will this race be decided in the primary, yes or no?

Correct Answer - Yes. Two-thirds were right on this one. Yawn.

Question #3: San Diego Mayor - Regardless of your answer to #2, which candidate will finish first in the primary?

Correct Answer - Jerry Sanders. Every response except one correctly indicated Sanders. Easy, even though the prior "over in the primary" sentiment wasn't as strong.

Most Creative Answer - "The guy that said f*** you Steve."

Question #4: 78th Assembly - Which candidate will win the Democratic nomination?

Correct Answer - Marty Block. Two-thirds accurately predicted this one, with most of the rest saying Maxine Sherard. Only two guessed Auday Arabo.

Best Answer: OK, it wasn't a prediction, but a great story all the same. Midnight election night, Marty Block was one of only a handful still on the floor at Golden Hall, cautiously eyeing the tote board, as at the time he was leading Sherard by a mere 50 votes. The gentleman with whom I was conversing was asking how Arabo, with his money and campaign army, could do so poorly in the 78th primary. I said, "Well, here's the guy you should ask," and introduced him to pending nominee Block. Upon hearing the question, Marty answered, "Because Republicans don't win in Democratic primaries." Ouch.

Question #5: San Diego City Attorney - Name the top two primary finishers.

Correct Answer - Jan Goldsmith/Mike Aguirre. No, you didn't get half a point for guessing only one of them, you had to get them both (the order of finish didn't matter). About one-third correctly guessed this, with another third saying Aguirre/Scott Peters. A couple of risk-takers thought Aguirre wouldn't make the run-off, saying Goldsmith/Peters. Only one respondent indicated Brian Maienschein (no, it wasn't Tony Krvaric).

One "Interesting" Opinion - "Every hit piece on Maienschein moves at least as many voters over to Peters as it does to Goldsmith."

Questions #6 and #7: 52nd Congressional - Although they are not presently competing directly with each other, and each is currently vying with a different number of opponents, which candidate will achieve the highest percentage of the vote in his respective primary contest, Republican Duncan D. Hunter or Democrat Mike Lumpkin?...and...Same question, more relevant angle: Which candidate will garner the highest number of votes in his respective primary contest, Hunter or Lumpkin?

Correct Answer for both - Duncan D. Hunter. Ok, I have to admit, I had a bit of an agenda on these two questions (what, ME an agenda?), in trying to show the Lumpkin partisans that even in a four-way primary on the GOP side (versus only a two-way for the Dems), that the Republican registration advantage is significant enough in the 52nd that Hunter could still get more votes. It was totally feasible that Lumpkin could have a higher percentage in his primary than Hunter, but that Hunter would still have the higher vote total.

As it ended up, Hunter walked away with both. In fact, Hunter scored over 8,000 more raw votes in a four-way contest than ALL the votes cast in the Dem primary. So, I guess next folks are going to tell me that the 70 percent plus that voted for Hunter in the primary are not going to support him in the general. Or...that those who cast votes for other primary Republicans are going to en-masse deny the GOP nominee in the general. Or...that East County's very conservative decline-to-state population is going to overwhelmingly support a D over an R in November. Or...that turnout will be so lop-sided that Reps will stay home when gay marriage and parental consent are on the ballot.

Uh-huh, and I have some ocean-front property in El Cajon for sale.

But, alas, I digress with my opinion (although it is totally correct). Back to the percentage question, it was about evenly split, Hunter and Lumpkin. On the raw votes, Hunter led the guesses four to one, indicating that a good number of folks understood the nuanced difference between the two questions. But, many still got the first part wrong.

Question #8: District 1 SD City Council - Which candidate will finish first in the primary?

Correct Answer - Sherri Lightner. This one really helped separate the wheat from the chaff, with half picking Phil Thalheimer, one-third correctly saying Lightner and the rest going with Marshall Merrifield.

Most Knowing Answer - "Phil and Marshall will split the primary vote, giving the edge to Sherri, but she's toast in a run-off."

Question #9: District 7 SD City Council - Which candidate will finish first in the primary?

Correct Answer - April Boling. About 66 percent guessed this one right.

Tie-Breaker A (Only if needed): District 3 SD City Council - Will John Hartley or James Hartline get a lesser number of votes?

Correct Answer - James Hartline. This turned out to be a lousy tie-breaker, as every single person except two lone souls correctly predicted Hartline would end up the loser. Obviously, you are all part of the conspiracy. BTW, Hartline currently stands at 673 votes, about 1/5 of Hartley's total.

Tie-Breaker B (Only if needed): District 5 SD City Council - What will be the difference in percentage (the spread) between Carl DeMaio and George George? (If this tie-breaker is needed, the winner will be the person closest to the exact final percentage.)

Correct Answer - 32.50 percent, presently. The guesses on this ranged from five to 34 percent, with the average prediction being a "mere" 18 percent. Closest to the mark was Michael McSweeney with 34 percent, but he didn't make it to the tie-breaker to wield his accuracy.

Most Politician-like Answer - Carl DeMaio himself: "No comment." (I tried to tell him that he didn't have to guess the winner, only the margin between the two, regardless of order of finish. He was very noble and wouldn't budge.)

Winners: That was it on the questions...eight points possible...two tie-breakers if needed, but only one ending up meaningful.

A lot of people scored five or six points. Those few with seven points, meaning they only ended up with one wrong answer: Scott Barnett, Duane Dichiara, John Vogel, and T.J. Zane. Great job to you four!

For the sake of naming an overall third place winner, then, Vogel selected 19.6 percent on the DeMaio tie-breaker, but Zane came in at 20 percent. So, the Lincoln Club's T.J. Zane lands the third place spot, by a hair.

Only two nailed every single question, garnering an amazing perfect score of eight points...Katie Hansen of the California Restaurant Association, and John Hoy of Schuman Hoy & Associates. SHA was consulting Goldsmith's race, so I'm glad John didn't pick Aguirre/Maienschein on the city attorney question.

That said, the whole enchilada comes down to the final tie-breaker, the guess on the margin of victory for DeMaio. Hoy said...19 percent. Hansen said...23 percent! Katie Hansen wins!

Congrats Katie!!! Heck, I've been trying to reach you for a quote, but I think you're at that Lincoln Club retreat in Borrego and I know the cell service there is all about less bars in more places. Get me a comment and I'll post it.

Oh, and in the general, I'm hiring a statistician.