Primary Election Contest - Send your Guesses
Posted by: Barry Jantz | 06/01/2008 6:15 PM
Cross posted at the FlashReport's Sunday San Diego...
It's time for the San Diego Primary Election Contest. Read below and take a stab. Every correct answer is worth one point unless otherwise noted.
Question #1: 75th Assembly (0 points) - Name the winner of the Republican nomination. (That's right, a throw away...you get nothing for answering this correctly, but if you get it wrong, none of the rest of your answers count, 'cuz I'm not even gonna waste my time.)
Question #2: San Diego Mayor - Will this race be decided in the primary, yes or no?
Question #3: San Diego Mayor - Regardless of your answer to #2, which candidate will finish first in the primary?
Question #4: 78th Assembly - Which candidate will win the Democratic nomination?
Question #5: San Diego City Attorney - Name the top two primary finishers, regardless of order.
Question #6: 52nd Congressional - Although they are not presently competing directly with each other, and each is currently vying with a different number of opponents, which candidate will achieve the highest percentage of the vote in his respective primary contest, Republican Duncan D. Hunter or Democrat Mike Lumpkin?
Question #7: 52nd Congressional - Same question, more relevant angle. Which candidate will garner the highest number of votes in his respective primary contest, Hunter or Lumpkin?
Question #8: District 1 SD City Council - Which candidate will finish first in the primary?
Question #9: District 7 SD City Council - Which candidate will finish first in the primary?
Tie-Breaker A (Only if needed): District 3 SD City Council - Will John Hartley or James Hartline get the lesser number of votes?
Tie-Breaker B (Only if needed): District 5 SD City Council - What will be the difference in percentage (the spread) between Carl DeMaio and George George? (If this tie-breaker is needed, the winner will be the person closest to the exact final percentage.)
That's it. Eight points possible; two tie-breakers if needed. The winner and other top finishers get absolutely nothing except a mention here and a tidal wave of awe from a bunch of fellow political hacks.
Send your guesses to barryjantz@cox.net. Heck, wait a few days if you need to see how some of these races play out. In no case will any submissions be considered if received after 7:55 p.m. on June 3. No messing with your computer clocks either.
For you Red County commenters that insist on remaining anonymous, well, either buck up for this (my preference) or trust me that I won't out you if you send me an email that identifies your real name in some way. Either way, indicate in the email a) your name or b) your Red County handle and that you wish to remain anonymous (if you win).
Lastly, in the case of any particularly close races, a final contest winner may not be determined until the election is certified, chad are counted, recounts are finalized, and/or lawsuits run their course.
Yes, chad is plural. Whatever. Have fun!
Your Web Pole asks a similar question Mission Times Courier poll asks. The poll queries readers to vote for the winner of the 7th district City Council race. The poll has been running for about three months if I recall correctly. When it began, Mari Emerald had a huge lead I suppose because of name ID. In a month David Tos superceded all candidates and the poll AND THEN THE POLL WAS TAKEN DOWN. Public pressure and complaints were made and the Courier returned the poll (keeping their promise to leave it up throughout the race). For the last two months, Police officer David Tos has held a daily average of about a 2-1 lead over any contender. Go figure. People may laugh at these straw polls but ask yourself this question…Why remove it when the opposition suddenly exceeds all expectations? I live in the 7th district and a lot of talk under the tables is about the pettiness and mudslinging in this campaign. Maybe, judging from an innocent and unscientific straw poll, people are just fed up.
J.B.
This is not a poll, by the way, it is a contest to see who can get closest to guessing the outcomes as I have indicated in the questions. As the first respondent wrote, "Finally, a way for all those hacks who say they knew the outcome before the election to prove it!"
O.K. I'll bite:
1. Nathan Fletcher - Always a confidence builder to get the first one right.
2. Yes, but this might just be wishful thinking.
3. Jerry Sanders
4. Marty Block
5. Aguirre and Peters, but only because of the GOP's hit pieces on Maienschein. Both Scott and Brian are very popular in districts 1 and 5. Every hit piece on Maienschein moves at least as many voters over to Peters as it does to Goldsmith.
6. Lumpkin
7. Lumpkin, but Duncan D. still wins the general election easily. "Decline to States" can only vote in the Democratic primary.
8. Thalheimer
9. Emerald
A. Hartline
B. 24%
Thanks, Andy. Keep in mind everyone, you can send your responses directly to me as indicated and I will house them and tally the scores after the election (unless you absolutely want to go as public as Mr. Berg has). I have several responses thus far; keep 'em coming.
I assume the winner of this contest gets the government they deserve.
I predict that Andy Berg will not win this competition.
I predict that in District 3, Paul Broadway will get MORE votes than either James Hartline or John Hartley.
If enough people believe in Paul Broadway and get out and VOTE, he has a real chance to place in the primary and go on to the runoff.
http://www.broadwaypub.com
http://paulbroadwayforcitycouncil.blogspot.com/
Don't let the big spenders dominate this election. Paul Broadway is a serious contender, an honest man, and the best choice for District 3.
Thanks, Barry!
David R. Voth
Assistant Treasurer / Campaign Manager
The Committee to Elect Paul Broadway to San Diego City Council, District 3
To David R. Voth:
Experience, and Steve Francis, has taught me that the only candidates that won't take campaign contributions are candidates that are not being offered campaign contributions.