AD78 Watch: Is Second the New First?
Posted by: Hugh Akston | 05/14/2008 8:31 AM
May 2008
Maxine Sherrard - 22%
Auday Arabo - 14%
Marty Block - 13%
Arlie Ricasa - 6%
Don't Know - 45%
February 2008
Maxine Sherrard - 17%
Auday Arabo - 8%
Marty Block - 16%
Arlie Ricasa - 6%
Don't Know - 53%
You can read the summary of the poll from the Arabo campaign HERE
Arabo's campaign boasts about being in second place, while dismissing Sherrard's vote as "tied to remaining name identification from her loss in 2006 and with nominal campaign spending to date, seems unlikely to grow appreciably." While I am not going to argue that Sherrard's showing is due to residual name ID from 2006, I will say that Maxine has an obvious significant floor of support in AD78, and in a four-way primary, it will take a campaign with its act together to catch-up.
There is a lot I do not know about polling so maybe there is some glaring reality that I am glancing over. The professional pollsters on this blog are encouraged to chime in about this poll.
What I do know is that Arabo's campaign has been atrocious up until this point. Granted, he has sent out the most mail. But a campaign cannot just send out mail for the sake of sending mail. There needs to be a message and that message needs to get across to voters. Thus far, all of Arabo's mail pieces have been focused on the fact that he has an unusual name - and has been void of any discernible message. The one mail piece with a semblance of a message is an 8 page booklet of his 'plan' for California.
I have not seen any mail from Marty Block's campaign committee yet, but there have been a substantial amount of IEs sent out for him, and soon against him. The pro-Block IEs have been a little better than anything Arabo has sent out. Everything I have seen has had a consistent theme and message about education.
The last I heard a major hit on Block was going to come down from CJAC, the anti-trial lawyer group. But who is going to hit Sherrard? It is not like the information is not out there, but if you hit her, you risk alienating a significant portion of the voters in the 4th Council District for the General Election.
In October I predicted a victory for Sherrard due to her residual name ID. I had a few doubts creep up when I saw the impressive fundraising numbers posted by Block and Arabo. Both campaigns have the resources to win this election, but unless they get their act together, they will be fighting for second place all the way to their concession speeches.
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I got a ridiculous piece of mail the other day with a wheel of fortune theme. It had Auday's name spelled with no A's, and then wanted us to buy an A or some damn thing. And then it says "Vote for the candidate with 4 A's in his name". But you are right, no real message. Just about his unusual name. If I hadn't thrown it out I would have sent it to you to post.
These are post-bio numbers for Auday. They hide this in the polling memo, but I saw the February poll and that 8% figure they use as a comparative is AFTER they've already said the basic bio of the candidate. This leaves the campaign itself to create a positive bio and influence the answer on the second horserace question.
Someone should be taken out back and shot. Any consultant that spends that much money on mail and radio, yet can only get their candidate up to 14% needs to be fired. Either they are 1) failing to transmit a winning message or 2) they were negligent in telling a clearly failing candidate that they can win. I think it is the latter. Note how much is being spent on consulting and polling in this race by people who have been in this business for a long time and should have had the ability to tell Arabo that he could not win.
The folks up north are hitting Marty Block, but not sending any mail promoting Auday Arabo. They get it. This is an opportunity for them to beat down Block and get Sherard through the Primary. Then we can come in and win against one of the most flawed candidates the Democrats could put forward.
Democrats are giving us a chance to win here and in the 80th where Pettis has the establishment and three Latinos are going to split the vote. In a presidential general election I didn't think we would hold these seats, but now it seems clear that we will.
Arabo in my opinion is doing a very impressive and outstanding job. I am very sorry that our party lost him.
There is nothing impressive or outstanding about what Arabo has done. The early money was impressive until you realize its all liquor store owners under the umbrella of the cal grocers.
I talked to a couple of union guys and other democrats the other night at an event. They all said the same thing - 'arabo could win this thing if he had a clue about how to spend his money'.
Auday is going to look back on June 4th and wish he either changed his party and waited to run, or never changed his party at all. Either way, he can never run again if he loses this election. Hes a man without a party.
Auday worked at "Party Time" liquor on 2nd Street when he was 16 and attending ValHalla High School. I think his parents/uncle or someone owned it. He sold booze to pretty much anyone in our class that drank, I think I bought from him when I was 15.
We would drive right up on the curb next to the doors, and load up. He wouldn't even "pretend" to ask for ID ( he knew us of cours ), and we loaded up. No fear at all.
No ill will, it's just ironic he's campaigning for family values and safe neighborhoods when he was the #1 contributor of alcohol sales to our Class of 93'!
Ahh, the days.