I hope Sycuan didn't spend alot of money to state the obovious.

Wow, I'm disappointed that Brian Jones isn't doing so well. I truly like him and his platform more than Duncan D's. Duncan is not qualified. I heard that he really didn't want run, but he's doing it for his dad. Sad day.

And I'm wondering if those polled (numbers?) were actually contributors to Duncan Sr. I'd be interested to know how the other candidates feel about this polling.

Don't like the numbers so attack the poll...I knew it would only be about five minutes.

For the record, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates is one of the most credible and professional firms around, and I will say that even though more often than not they seem to be engaged by the other party (that doesn't mean they aren't professional). Firms like this base future business on credibility, not tampering with the numbers or calling select folks for a predetermined outcome.

It's also safe to say that Sycuan is not going to purposely skew a poll, as their name is on the line as well.

What the candidates feel about the polling is largely irrelevant. I have yet to see a poll that hasn't been criticized by those not shown well and praised by those shown in the lead. It's about as commonplace as someone asking if the poll is rigged.

Oh Barry, Jenart just questioned, she didn't attack. Don't be so sensitive. It's always good to question authority. :)

So noted. I am too sensitive. I will buck up from here on out.

It's over.

It was over the day Duncan Hunter Jr. filed his papers to run. Some may not like it, but that is the fact. Unless someone had $1 million of their own money to run there never was a question. And even with a million dollar kick start it would have been tough to beat Jr.

Face it, the district loved Sr.

So for all the supporters of the other candidates, you can whine till your blue in the face. Jr. is going to win, the Padres suck this year and American Idol will be on television tonight -- these are all FACTS!

Yeah, ya think??

Not everyone in the district loved Sr. He certainly didn't represent me. I would have preferred that he get us earmark money for fire protection instead of all the wasteful spending he did on "national security." Did you know that the Airforce is scheduled to throw out software the Armed services committee allocated and they haven't even received it yet? When he did spend on national security, he forgot to procure armour for our soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I disagreed with him on just about everything except horse slaughter. Tell me what you agree with him about and why Jr. should be the heir apparent.

Yeah, ya think??

Not everyone in the district loved Sr. He certainly didn't represent me. I would have preferred that he get us earmark money for fire protection instead of all the wasteful spending he did on national security. Did you know that the Airforce is scheduled to throw out software the Armed services committee allocated and it hasn't even been received yet? When he did spend on national security, he forgot to procure armour for our soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. I blame him for leaving them so unprotected. Did you know there is a helmet that could have saved our fighters from many of the brain injuries sustained? Then there's also the fact that the soldiers were wearing Vietnam-era flack jackets if they had flack jakets at all. Technology has come a long way since Vietnam and they should have all been furnished with the most up-to-date technology.

I disagreed with him on just about everything except horse slaughter. Tell me what you agree with him about and why Jr. should be the heir apparent.

There is an interesting research project out there to look at the sucess enjoyed by spouses and children in running for a political position held by a family member. Ultimately the challengers had a near impossible task - convince voters who liked Duncan Sr. that there was a reason for "change" when Duncan Jr. promised "continuity". Jones probably had the right idea - try to go the populist route and argue against earmarks. But he would have needed MUCH more $$ and been willing to attack a popular incumbent congressman.

Ultimately the ONLY pols out there that could have given Duncan Jr. a race was Dianne. Now THAT would have been a race to remember ;-)

Well let's see now Designfreak, I never said everybody, and if you live in the 52nd congressional district then Sr. most certainly does represent you. He may not represent your views or beliefs but he is your representative. Name me one politician that got 100% of the vote EVER that was not a dictator.

What I disagree on with Hunter Sr. or Hunter Jr. is irrelevant. Jr. will be the Congressman elected in November and that is that. What is fair to some is unfair to others. It is not fair that I was not the child of Bill Gates, Warren Buffett or Sam Walton, but should I begrudge their children because of it?

There is not a politician in American that I would probably agree with 100%, but that does not change the facts.

If people want to drive around with Ron Paul for President stickers on their car to show they don't support the other candidates that is their choice. If they waste their time walking door to door or holding meetings honestly thinking that Ron Paul has a chance, then they are stupid and simply wasting their time. When the loss is inevitable you should use your resources for other things/candidates.

Jones, Watkins, Lumpkin are simply wasting their time and have ZERO chance of winning unless, a meteor fell out of the sky and landed on Jr. Since he survived two tours of duty I am going to assume that he will not be struck down by a meteor anytime in the near future

It is amazing this poll doesn't reflect all of the opinions of Jomes and Lumpkins staffers. It must be flawed.

Ya think?? Your argument doesn't hold up. People may be born into money, but they can't be born into a congressional seat.

Designfreak have you had your eyes examined lately because you don't seem to read very well. I never said anyone was born into a congressional seat. What I said is that life is not fair, so should you begrudge people (in this case Jr.) because he is benefiting from his father's efforts?

Voters do not have to vote for him, but they will choose to do so. Yeah some may not know, but even if they did the odds are they would still vote for him.

The fact is Jr. will win. Deal with it and move on!

No. I'm not movin' on. You're not going to bully me.

I just figured out that Designfreak is Hillary Clinton. No one is going to bully her out of the race. Well Designfreak you better get outside and start walking door to door in order to spread your message and get your candidate at least into the double digits.

My candidate of choice hasn't been included in any polling. In case your eyes need to be examined, this was a poll of the republican candidates.

Well that is because it is a Republican primary and therefore Mr. Lumpkin being a Democrat is not included. With that being said, good luck, he will get about as many votes as Gastil, Barkacs or Rinaldi.

Lumpkin will get around 40% but it will become obvious to most Democrats that either their party leadership is really stupid or they have no chance at taking the 52nd congressional district when they spend nothing to help Lumpkin out.

You can choose which reason they stay out of the race because regardless it does not really matter.

Speaking of money, what do you suppose the RNC or the RCCC have to spend on jr.'s campaign? You guessed it, nothing. The Reps have no money, in fact, they're in debt. The Dems will finance this race and Lumpkin wins in November.

Since you obviously don't know, there is also a democratic primary going on, genius.

Is there REALLY? Come on now how much money has Butcher spent? I have not even seen one sign nor heard a word from her and I am out in the district frequently.

Lumpkin will win the primary on the Dem side, only to be creamed by Hunter in November. Lumpkin has as much of a shot at winning this seat as the Republicans running against Filner.

You are mistaken if you think Mike Lumpkin is going to be another Democrat sacrificial lamb. This guy is the REAL DEAL and you won't realize it until you meet him or see him in a debate. He has more knowledge about what our country needs than Duncan Jr. has experience in life. Remember Mike Lumpkin has served his country for 21 years. Duncan Jr. is only 31 years old. CHANGE is afoot…. so run fast if you want to keep up.

OK Jenart, you believe that Lumpkin will win, and I will believe that the Republican nominee will beat Filner. That way we can both be in La La Land and have nice pleasant dreams.

In my dream world Ronald Reagan is going to be president again and this time he will crumble China just like he did the Soviet Union.

And just to get under the skin of the liberals I will dream that Ann Coulter is the VP and Bob Dornan is the Sec of Defense.

And for some entertainment I am going to dream that Ted Kennedy retired from Congress and is now the President of Mothers Against Drunk Driving.

Now please don't bother me anymore I have a dream to catch!

Really, do we bother you, ya think?? You really are a genius.

This has really become the art of "nuh-uh" vs. "uh-huh" inanity. May I suggest that unless you have some new or insightful information to add, to try to refrain from posting just so as to get the last word?

It is a shame that Duncan Hunter is doing so well. I think that Bob Watkins is much more qualified. The thing that concerns me about Hunter is that his dad was good friends with Duke Cunningham. I can't help but think that Senior might be as dirty as Cunningham. If he is, then Duncan Hunter Jr will probably be involved with the same people... even if he's just taking their money. IF we can't trust Senior, how can we ever trust Jr?

YA THINK Said, wow, your really giving Lumpkin the credit he so deserves. Are you telling me that the Rep.(Junior) will only pull between 50% to 60% of the heavy sided conservative 52nd. This is going aginist every prediction made. Oh my gosh, so what your telling me is Lumpkin will get all the Dems. plus some DTS and only get 40%. Me says, you better hit the streets sir. I think we are in for a much closer race then you ever imagined.

The U-T is up with the story...

http://weblog.signonsandiego.com/news/breaking/2008/05/poll_shows_hunters_son_far_ahe.html

Ya Think, are you a psychic? The ONLY thing in life that is certain is that NOTHING in life is certain. Those who talk in definites are usually wrong.

I want to see a poll comparing Hunter Jr platform and Mike Lumpkin platform. When they stand side by side, Mike Lumpkin blows Duncan Hunter out of the water. Lumpkin has more experience in the tip of his pinky than Hunter Jr has in his entire family.

If you were to change Duncan Hunter Jr's name to John Doe he would most likely be last on all the polls.

It won't be long before the Congressman's constituency learns that Duncan D. is delusional. At least that's what the acupuncturists say. After the primary, Mike Lumpkin will be the beneficiaries of the voters disaffected by the over-the-top conservative rhetoric. Mike will be good for East County and the 52nd. You'll see.

Sunday, May 4th
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - A Louisiana Democrat won a special congressional election in a district held by Republicans for more than two decades, increasing her party's majority in the House of Representatives, results from the state showed on Sunday...

to read to more: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0433744920080504

I'm filling out my ballot now...sure appreciate the help. Duncan D is the real deal... change for change sake? I hope he keeps the great professional staff-turn key with values.But then some of us saw it from the get go. you'll see.

What do Ya Think about this?

ATLANTA (Reuters) - Mississippi Democrat Travis Childers won a U.S. House of Representatives seat in a special election...in a district considered safe territory in part because it voted heavily for U.S. President George W. Bush in 2004

to read more:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1344676720080514

Ewe Win, can you please tell me what makes you so sure that Duncan Hunter is your best candidate?

I just read that Duncan Hunter Sr received over $40,000 in campaign contributions from Wilkes and ADCS, the same group that bribed Duke Cunningham. I wonder how much of their money is going to help Duncan Hunter Jr.?

I'm sure Mike Lumpkin is an honorable man and a good American but his odds of winning this race are slim to none. His supporters on this blog are cheaping his image with their desperate grasping at straws. to all of you out there, please think about the consequences of your actions on your candidate's image and reputation before you hit the ENTER key.

He is an honorable man and no one is "cheaping" his image or any of that nonsense. Just good ol' American discussion and that is a great reason to hit the ENTER key.

Discussion and debate is fine. I'm all for it. It just seems to me as an outside observer that the tone of the Lumpkin supporters is continuously degenerating. Perhaps you're too far in to the forest at this point to see the trees. As Barry pointed out previously, it's becoming nothing more than a "uh-huh / nuh-uh" conversation, which is less than the readers of this blog deserve. Let Lumpkin at least go out with a bit more dignity than Hillary.

I would have preferred Duncan Sr. get us earmark money for fire protection instead of all the wasteful spending he did on national security. Did you know that the Airforce is scheduled to throw out software the Armed services committee allocated and it hasn't even been received yet? When he did spend on national security, he forgot to procure armour for our soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. I blame him for leaving them so unprotected. Did you know there is a helmet that could have saved our fighters from many of the brain injuries sustained? Then there's also the fact that the soldiers were wearing Vietnam-era flack jackets, and they were the lucky ones because so many more had no flack jackets at all. Technology has come a long way since Vietnam and they should have all been furnished with the most up-to-date technology.

I disagreed with him on just about everything except horse slaughter. Tell me what you agree with him about and why Jr. should be the heir apparent. He's definitely not smarter than his father.

I'm repeating a lot of what I said yesterday because it pertains to the issues specifically, but none of you have had the wherewithal to answer me.

Re: Winds of Change

What you failed to mention in your post about the Louisiana race is this nugget from the article...

"During the campaign, Cazayoux sought to distance himself from the Democratic Party while playing up his conservative stances on social issues like abortion."

I'd hardly say this guy is representative of the Democratic Party as a whole.

This makes me so sad. Don't you know that we can have a GREAT CHRISTIAN LEADER in Brian Jones? Why won't anyone take him seriously? He is exactly what we need right now! Hunter has taken campaign contributions from some shady characters and Brian would never do something like that. He's by far the most ethical and Christian man running. Please change your minds and vote for Brian Jones.

It isn't about Brian's qualities as a candidate, even though it would be great if it were. Wrong timing to run against the equivalent of a "virtual incumbent."

Not necessarily. All we have to do is switch our vote from Hunter Jr. to Jones. I absolutely should be about Brian's qualities. It should be about all of their qualities. I want someone representing me who has the same beliefs and qualities as I have. Don't you?

He shoudn't be a virtual incumbent, that's just not fair. I know, life's not fair. But come on folks, vote for who you really want. You know we have the majority out here and anyone we want can be elected. Vote for Brian Jones!

Abortion is but ONE issue in this incredibly R+ district. They elected people who were still very much D's. By the way, with all the stupidity going on in BOTH parties who DOESN'T want to distance themselves from their party right now?

Like Commander Lumpkin says, "When I raised my right hand 22 years ago, I swore to defend the Constitution and the people of the United States - NOT the Republican or Democratic Parties. I took that oath for life and I intend to uphold it in Congress."

Ahh, the winds of change are a breath of fresh air.

Why is Lumpkin quoting himself on this blog? Shouldnt he be walking precincts?

I'm still waiting to hear why all the Republicans think that Duncan Jr is the best qualified candidate, OTHER THAN HIS LAST NAME. If this guy's name was Duncan D. Smith would he still have the same following?

If Duncan D Smith apples looked the same with a shinnier tint, when placed next to granny smith apples. why not give them a shot.

Were actually dealing with reality here on this blog. The reality is that that IS his last name, and that DOES matter.

How sad. I guess real issues aren't important.

Yes, the issues are important. But, Brian Jones is not the only capable person running for Congress. And, politics is more than about how nice a person or qualified you are. It's also about the ability to raise dollars so as to compete, listening to decent advice from qualified people about the reality of a local councilman competing for Congress, and timing. Strike three.

Then, he decides he's gonna flail at windmills with personal attacks? Shoddy consulting. Strike four.

I have news for all you who think Lumkin, Jones, Watkins have a shot at winning this seat -- your right, they do. And the Padres still have a chance at winning the World Series.

So you should go down to TJ (it is illegal to bet on politics in the US) and place $100 on your candidate to win the 52nd and $100 the Padres to win the World Series. And if you really want to be adventurous, you just might put $100 on Ron Paul for President. Heck if all the stars line up you might walk out with about $10,000,000 with the odds that you are likely to get.

Pull your head out of the sand and stop showing you inexperience in politics, especially East County.

Few things are for certain, but this is one of them unless a meteor hits Duncan Jr., or maybe a pilot out of Gillespie Field becomes distracted by a Lumpkin sign and crash into Duncan’s car. Other than those and about two million other oddball and unlikely catastrophes, there is no way Jr. will lose.

Lumpkin might be the nicest guy in the world, but in the real world outside of politics, the nicest or most qualified guy does not always get the job. You can debate till your blue in the face who has the best qualifications but as far as I can tell there are only three qualifications and they all equally meet the only criteria set forth by the Constitution of the United States of America. All the other stuff is fluff and is based on personal preference and opinion.

Qualifications to be elected to the U.S. House of Representatives:

1. Must be 25 years of age (when seated, not when elected).
2. Must have been a citizen of the United States for 7 years.
3. Must be an inhabitant of the state from which elected.

Based on those constitutional prerequisites, that makes Duncan D. as equally qualified as all the others candidates. Gosh, that even makes Vickie Butcher as equally qualified. I think I'll vote for Hunter.

This criteria makes me eligible to run for Congress. Boy, that's a scary thought.

I wonder if Duncan D would still be living in Idaho if Daddy Duncan had not decided to give up his seat...

I also wonder what made Daddy Duncan think he had a snowball's chance of winning the Presidency of the United States.

Points to ponder....

...or maybe he was running for something like Secretary of Defense

Hey Ya Think,

Do I hear you admitting that Mike Lumpkin is much more qualified than Duncan Hunter Jr to be our congressman? That is probably the most intelligent thing I've seen you type since I started reading these blogs.

I find it funny how often “conservative”/ “family values” republicans loudly proclaim that they are anti-gay marriage, anti-gays in the military, and seemingly anti-gay in general. Duncan Hunter Jr’s stance on homosexual rights is very clear. Of course so was Senator Larry Craig’s… and we ALL know how his career ended.

Never said that Lumpkin was more qualified. They are all equally qualified based on the requirements. The rest is all just personal preference.

But it is interesting how you tend to read into something in which I was very clear the first time. Must be those blinders over your eyes.

And when it comes to people like Larry Craig, the Republicans are the most appalled at his actions. Yet it amazes me that the Democrats can sit back and do nothing when one of their own members gets caught taking a $100,000 bribe and puts it in his freezer. How long does it take to figure out it was a bribe and he was on the take? Republican Cunningham is in prison where he belongs, where is Democrat Jefferson? Oh still sitting in Congress!

I WOULD BE INTERESTED TO SEE WHO WAS ACTUALLY POLLED?? MAYBE AFTER THAT I COULD TAKE THIS WHOLE THING A LITTLE MORE SERIOURLY. NO ONE COULD POSSIBLY PULL NUMBERS LIKE THAT UNLESS THEY WERE MAYBE PEOLPE WHO HAD MADE CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE "WINNER". JUST A THOUGHT.