Breaking News: JohnsonClark No Longer Consulting Watkins in 52nd
Posted by: Barry Jantz | 04/24/2008 9:54 PM
Cross-posted at the FlashReport....
With just over five weeks to go, Bob Watkins is out a consultant and a fundraiser in the GOP race to replace Congressman Duncan Hunter. Both Sacramento-based JohnsonClark Associates and a local fundraiser confirmed with me that they ended their respective relationships with the Watkins campaign earlier in the month.
Media consultant Jennifer Kerns issued a statement in response to my resulting inquiry:
Bob Watkins' campaign has confirmed they have concluded their contract with JohnsonClark Associates. Over the last seven months, JohnsonClark has created a strategic framework for the Congressional campaign; now during the final five weeks of the campaign, their execution plan will be carried out on the grassroots level. JohnsonClark remains available to the Watkins campaign as consultants, and will be assisting the campaign for the general election.
What this means for the Watkins effort may be open to some conjecture. Yet, it won't be lost on political watchers that the departure of one of the state's most capable consulting firms at such a late date is significant.
Watkins, currently the president of the County Board of Education and a successful businessman, has been considered by many a strong contender for the 52nd Congressional seat against Marine Captain Duncan D. Hunter, son of the incumbent.
It was further anticipated that Watkins would likely fund much of his own effort if necessary. Yet, the release of recent campaign statements (see post) shows Hunter far ahead of Watkins, Santee Councilman Brian Jones and retired Federal Agent Rick Powell in the money race. Politicos began to question whether Watkins' potential personal funds would come too late -- or be wasted in a quixotic effort against Hunter.
My take: Watkins' great success in business hasn't been due to risky financial moves. Although he will continue some fundraising and stick it out nobly until the end, the departure of JCA indicates he will not be tossing his personal funds down a black hole. The younger Hunter's fundraising prowess has surprised many, meaning the early writing on the wall as to the outcome in the race is instead rapidly becoming engravings in stone.
Added thoughts: Many outside East San Diego County still do not get the strength of the Hunter name in the area. I've witnessed absolutely no meaningful drop-off whatsoever between those that would have supported the Congressman for re-election and those willing to support the younger Hunter. As well, in the public arena, Hunter appears as versed on the issues as local office-holders Jones and Watkins -- if not more so on military and national security matters -- thus giving watchers added confidence that he is his own person.
Send off: The idealistic Councilman Jones will end his foray into the big time smelling like a rose and with a lot of supporters, thus nicely setting himself up for something down the road, whether he knows it now or not.


I couldn't agree more. Junior's best campaign strategy is to be mistaken for his dad. And yes, he is as versed as his Republican contenders...a sad commentary since (and you know this Barry) he begins so many sentences with "Dad says..." There is one thing you did fail to mention. Mike Lumpkin outraised everyone whose father is not a sitting Congressman with thumb screws on everyone on K Street who has an interest in the National Defense Authorization Act that daddy controls until this August. Don't support sonny boy and oops, sorry, your contract doesn't find its way to appropriations. Check back in 2010. So sorry. Talk about politics as usual. Just check the FEC reports and make a few calls and judge for yourself. I hardly call that earned by Junior or qualified for the people of the 52nd.
I think this is a funny article in general. Maybe the title should be "I endorse Junior" or "Things I make up to make a point". Not to be offensive - but honestly?!
There is a whole lot of "in my opinion" and "according to my observations" that really add up to a very eloquent, but ultimately here-say, article. I think the underlying theme of this piece is a Duncan Junior supporter expressing concern that a) Watkins will actually use his fortunes to leach votes out of Junior and b) Jones' massive support base will be sufficient to pull a hair-tight win on June 3rd.
I particularly like the sentence beginning with "Politicos began to question..." I am curious whom these politicos are particularly in light of the fact that the only quotation in this piece is from a member of Watkin's staff expressing complete apathy towards the "death toll" supposed in this article.
As long as the Duncan Jr. campaign continually employs useless tactics (like placing 8ft by 6ft "Duncan for Congress" banners across from candidate Jones' house) - I'm not so sure this race is completely bagged for Junior.
A blog does include opinion and observations, last I heard. These are mine. Also, some hearsay, buzz, rumor and anonymity. You may ignore it, if you wish.
If it's an "article" you want, read the U-T or other straight news sources that ideally "must" give equal time to the AIP and Libertarian candidates in this race that have NO chance whatsoever. It's not my job to waste my time or yours.
I am one of the politicos that did the questioning. I talk to others on a daily basis, some pretty experienced folks so as to make up for my obvious shortcomings. I don't out the folks I talk to as a matter of course, unless they ask to be quoted.
A political watcher of this race would have to be on a "Lost" vacation to not know that it has long been conjectured whether Watkins would self-fund and more recently that time's a wastin' for such an effort.
The buttons to press are 4-8-15-16-23-42 if you are on that vacation.
Fair enough - but even opinion pieces must have some bearing in reality. Make a claim if you would like but it's not reasonable to claim a trend or a public opinion based on "hearsay, buzz, and rumor" - like this blog does - and not expect disbelief and rolling of eyes.
Call a spade a spade. At least preface this article by saying who you support. You gloss over very pressing questions about Junior and his credentials by referencing "critically acclaimed" superiority in matters of national security and supporter's "confidence" that he is not a daddy's boy - while framing the other candidate's as "idealistic", their campaigns as "black holes", and sarcastically suggesting that one of the candidate's will "smell like a rose" when this is all over but definitely lose. Forgive me for losing interest in this opinion piece when I don't understand how you make any of these conclusions.
This brings me back to the humble suggestion I made in my first post - call this "opinion piece" what it is... An extension of Duncan Junior's most recent mailer to his supporters. I won't fault you for not being objective, but at least be honest.
I've endorsed Duncan D. Hunter. That doesn't make my analysis any less of an analysis; it's actually about a change at the Watkins campaign and conjecture (and opinion) as to what it means.
Sarcastically? Hello, Jones is idealistic. What is wrong with being idealistic? I like his passion and I've blogged on it before...in fact, he used my blog quotes about him in a fundraising plea. "Smelling like a rose" is a well-known reference to looking good at the end of the day. This is a compliment...about his potential for the future. Opposite of "smelling like a wet rat."
With all due respect, Andrew, you seem to be so upset over my opinion that Hunter is leading handily, that you are finding implications in my post where none exist.
I do value your insights, however, keep them coming.
Has there been any new polling in this race recently? Anecdotal evidence and financial reports support the claim that it's Duncan D.'s race to lose but I haven't seen any recent polling data.
As I have followed Barry over the years you get a sense of his writing style. I find this blog informative and certainly packed with the info and perspective that I would not find in the daily paper. That said, I have tremendous respect for Brian, Bob and Duncan D.
One only has to recall the past Mayoral race conducted by Peter Q. Davis and what he spent of his personal funds. I sense that some here may be providing the perspective by "spending" someone else's money?
Barry has a proven insight. Thanks for the "service'.
Don't know how many of you live in East County, but from what I can see Hunter is running a very smart campaign. I am an absentee voter and have already received 3 or so mailers from Hunter and have heard radio ads. He is running as a conservative and Marine vet.
All Jones has are signs and Watkins has done almost nothing.
The Jantz piece is informative. Barry is beyond question in his integrity and honesty. I would take issue with anyone who would say otherwise. He likes Duncan Jr. There is a lot to like. Serving one's country and honesty and integrity is certainly something to applaud and consider, particularly in today's climate(and no, I have neither endorsed nor supported Duncan II at this time) last I checked a guy named George Washington had no political experience, and Dwight Eisenhower, and I am sure many more before they were elected. I see the information provided by Mr. Jantz to be informative. When potentially elected people have problems in their camp, it may say something (good or bad) about the candidate. If anyone wants to post something against Mr. Hunter, fine, or information about the other alleged candicates, fine. But don't attack Barry for providing information that I for one did not know. Respect and regards to all
JP Martin
I serve on the City Council with Brian Jones and I would support him even if I didn’t. I have also known Barry, and worked with Barry for a long time. I don't think there is anything wrong with Barry reporting his opinion. Regardless, if he backed the wrong guy (poke in the ribs Barry). Let's face it. A blog is a blog is a blog.
Barry and I have supported the same candidates, and different candidates for office. It just comes down to personal choice, I enjoy the fact that I can say what I want and so can Barry.
Duncan Jr. is a great guy, and I don't want to take anything away from his honorable service. I guess my only question is, "How much support would he be getting, and what are his qualifications. Who would be the top candidate if he were, let's say John Q. Citizen?"
I have to agree, not everyone had experience as an elected representative before taking office.
You are right. I do have a bias in this race. Maybe even a little selfishness. I know that when Brian gets elected to Congress, I can call him directly to help with my city. I don't think Duncan Jr. even knows I am alive, let alone an elected official in the 52nd district. I hope I am wrong, but probably not.
Oh well that is my rant. Feel free to let me know how washed up my thoughts are. After all, this is a great place to have fun with our thoughts, and Barry. Keep the blogs coming?
John
There has been a shake up in the 52nd District, indeed.
A Democrat out raised a long-term, current political figure who was the former head of the Lincoln Club. The retired SEAL Commander also out raised the Santee Councilman. Even young Hunter knows enough about Commander Lumpkin to introduce himself by quoting Lumpkin's headquarters sign, saying "I Like Mike" as he shook his hand.
Lumpkin is a real contender. Those of us who have had the pleasure of meeting him know what I mean.
Thanks John/all, I'm on a first name basis with Brian, Bob and Duncan D.and have met Mike Lumkin...
Just last night, at the East County EDC Foundation fund raising event, Duncan D. said "Hi Ernie". So I am at least one elected official in the 52nd Dist (he knows), as well as 77th Assemblyman Joel Anderson, in endorsing Duncan D. Looking forward to a frank discussion of the issues and solutions while getting past blood lines.
PASTA & Politics This Tuesday anyone???