SAN DIEGO COUNTY (CA):

 
 
 

What we learned?

Posted by: Kurt Bardella | 02/06/2008 8:15 AM

In what is without a doubt the most competitive election in quite a while, Super Tuesday came and went and the picture is clearer on the Republican side and murky on the Democrat side.  Obama won more states and delegates, Clinton won the big states.  The big concern is that the 72-hour undecideds broke for Obama nationwide.  Still, Clinton must be savoring the win in Mass. following the big snub she received from the Kennedy family.

Speaking of endorsements - how important are they?  Looking at the Republican race, McCain performed far better than expected in the Golden State - bolstered by the aura of inevitability and support from heavyweight's such as Rudy and Arnold.  Early analysis of the polls show the economy being the predominant issue, a trend that is consistent nationwide.

In San Diego, McCain won 3 out of the 5 congressional districts - it didn't appear as if any endorsement - Issa for McCain or Bilbray for Romney really had an impact as it was down-to-the-wire in the 49th/50th districts with McCain winning the 50th by less than 2 percent and Romney winning the 49th by less than 2 percent.  Bottom line, endorsements don't mean as much as people think.

So, big picture, what did we learn about the Republican race?  Huckabee has a strong case for VP winning southern states, but has still not been able to demonstrate his appeal is beyond the bible-belt voters.  McCain is winning liberal-republicans and moderate republicans handy but still has a problem with self-described conservatives with only 1 in 3 going his way.  Romney, while the last hope for Rush Limbaugh followers, is nearing the end of his road as the Republican Party will begin to coalesce around McCain - not because they love him, but because he is the most electable out of the field. 

Republicans may benefit from having a consensus nominee as the Democrat field continues to be competitive and their focus remains split.  The GOP would be better-off avoiding a floor-fight at the convention and having a consensus pick heading into an election in which both Democrat candidates elicit much more excitment and devotion than whoever ends up being the GOP candidate.

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