The Poll on Peters and Bersin
Posted by: Barry Jantz | 02/13/2008 1:11 PM
This morning's Alex Roth/Jennifer Vigil U-T story on Saturday's meeting to decide between Scott Peters and Alan Bersin as the "coalition candidate" for city attorney, referred to poll results that assisted in the reported jointly-agreed selection of Peters.
Considering the story's multiple anonymous sources in attendance at the meeting, it's not clear whether the folks there were sworn to secrecy, or just sworn to not allow the media to use their names. More likely: it was assumed no one would talk at all.
At any rate, I also received a call on the meeting over the weekend, from a reliable, historically-honest and -correct source. Here's what I heard about the poll...
It was conducted by Dr. Sam Popkin at UCSD, commissioned by Bersin, but apparently to assist both Peters and Bersin in deciding the best of the two.
Straight Up Goldsmith:
-Goldsmith 49 / Aguirre 27
Bersin In:
-Goldsmith 33 / Aguirre 25 / Bersin 21
Peters In:
-Goldsmith 28 / Aguirre 25 / Peters 22
Most popular Electeds (and most beneficial endorsements):
-Dumanis, Kolender, Sanders
All due respect to Dr. Popkin, since this is only what was said, but the source indicated the survey might have a significant flaw in methodology, not taking into account very low expected turnout in June. A low turnout will skew GOP, thus likely bolstering Goldsmith's numbers higher than shown here.
This further substantiates the POA's earlier results, which showed Goldsmith in a near-race ender one-on-one against Aguirre. Interesting is that Aguirre is at a hard 25 to 27 in any scenario. Don't ask me why Brian Maienschein wasn't included, but the poll may have been in the field prior to his announcement.
My bet is that the Saturday meeting included no talk about both Peters and Bersin getting out, which looks here like the better scenario, if the real intent is to oust the current office-holder.
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So if Maienschein is in, he might be the spoiler for Goldsmith, allowing Idiot Aguirre to stay in.
Thats what the part of the poll they aren't sharing is saying. That is why they are both getting real serious now that Brian is in.
Maienschein should think twice about the repurcussions of his candidicy.
h/t to VoSD's Andrew Donohue...Kolender and Dumanis to announce support for Goldsmith tomorrow:
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2008/02/14/this_just_in/447endorsements021308.txt
First, I have to say that I am a former student of Dr. Popkin and he is a great professor. I especially appreciated his eagerness to embarrass students who would show up late to class and insist on walking all the way to the front and through the aisles disturbing students who showed up on time.
With that being said, I believe Dr. Popkin's experience in conducting polls is limited and he may not be as well versed as professional pollsters in the most current techniques of polling. Pulling a random sample that is a statistical representation of the expected voters for the June election is key. In addition, one must make sure they are asking appropriate questions, both positive and negative, of all prospective candidates.
I am willing to bet that voters citywide will not have a good impression of Scott Peters and his negatives (serving on the council that gave away the bank) will far outweigh his positives. All of these facts will be pointed out by hisw opponents and Steve Francis ad nauseum. Peters is DOA and the only thing that will give him any credibility is his wife's money!
Go Mike. Beat those red commies.