Below are a few random thoughts I've had about politics and the future of the conservative movement since last Tuesday's primary:

#1

Despite the best efforts of the party to rig the primary election in favor of a "real" Republican, John McCain was able to win big in California.

I hope this is a lesson that keeping out independent voters doesn't allow party higher-ups to control outcomes.

I'm a conservative. I voted for Mitt Romney. But I realized a long time ago that, to my dismay, most Californians, even many registered as Republicans, just aren't as conservative as I am.

I fear that the only thing we've accomplished by closing our primary has been to drive a lot of Independents who usually vote Republican into the arms of the Democrats.

Of course, these are swing voters, so we can still get them back, but we may have lost them for '08.

#2

I heard a lot of comments from non-political people about the presidential race over the weekend. The most interesting thread connecting them all is that, at this point at least, their choice of who to support is based entirely on personality.

The ones I spoke to hated Hillary (this was universal: men, women; older, younger; independents) and liked Obama.

Obviously, this is purely anecdotal and taken from a very limited universe, but I can't help but think that there's a kernel of good news for Republicans here. It's an indication that Hillary could be a terrible candidate for Dems in the general election.

It also means that people like Obama but don't know much about his extremely liberal policy positions. I think Obama will be in trouble once he is forced to go beyond the soaring rhetoric and start getting into specifics.

A lot has happened over the past eight years. Voters have come to associate "Republican" and "conservatism" with a bungled war, deficits, Katrina, and (maybe) recession. That doesn't mean, however, that the country is ready to make a gigantic lurch to the left.

If the Democrats have proven anything over the last 40 years it's that they know how to lose a presidential race. We shouldn't start running a victory lap, but it's a little early to throw in the towel just yet.

Now, if we can only get the "over the cliff" Republicans on board, we might actually get a Republican in the White House for another 4 years.

#3

The death of the leader of the Church of Latter Day Saints got me to thinking: How is it that a religion that forbids pre-marital sex, alcohol, tobacco, caffeine and gambling and makes adherents wear funny underwear is actually growing?

They did it by changing their image without changing their core beliefs. They "rebranded" by associating themselves more closely with mainstream Christianity (dropping the term "Mormon"), ending official racism within the church, and aggressive proselytizing.

I know that the common analysis is that conservatism is dead because we're behind the times on issues like traditional moral values and abortion. But maybe we just aren't reaching a huge market of potential voters because we've become so insular.

It is the tendency to demand or expect every Republican to be a "cradle conservative" that is making us irrelevant. Mormonism on the other hand, like all expansive religions, seeks out converts.

Of course, a political party isn't a religion, but there are a lot of lessons to be learned from the Latter Day Saints.

That's all for now.