On October 1st I penned a piece for this blog titled, 'The Most Exciting Race In Town'. It analyzed each candidate running in the Democratic primary in the 78th Assembly District, as well as potential candidate Maxine Sherard.

What was striking to me was the knee-jerk reaction on the left to call any talk of a potential run by Sherard a hoax and dismiss it out of hand as a worthless attempt by the Republicans to 'bait her into the race'. Their logic was based on the idea that we beat Maxine before, and so we can beat her again and thus need her in the race to have any chance of holding the seat. Interesting hypothesis on their part, but my theory was much more simple; Maxine ran in 2002, 2004 and 2006, so why wouldn't she run in 2008 after coming closer than ever to being elected to the State Assembly?

Now here we are almost 4 months later, and like every year since redistricting, Maxine Sherard is in the race. But the knee-jerks on the left started to spin the news of her candidacy so fast they appear disoriented. The line is that she has somewhere around $40k of debt from the '06 race and is only running to retire her debt. Some have gone so far as to say she threatened the Speaker with a run unless he paid for her $40k in debt, although I have been unable to confirm any of this beyond hearsay, Capitol gossip and knee-jerk spin.

What is more likely is that she had every intention to run again since election night 2006 when she had a decent showing against a popular incumbent in a non-Presidential year, and had to think her chances two years later would be dramatically improved.

There are other still other candidates in the race, and a victory in June for Sherard is anything but a sure thing. Here is what I have heard or seen out of the other three candidates in the race over the past couple of months:


Auday Arabo

Arabo has been everywhere. Every Sacramento lobbyist has sat down with him at least once, and most multiple times. He has been spotted at about every event in the district over the past few months, and when he's not at an event, I would guess that he is off fundraising somewhere. In fact, I would venture to say the only event he did not attend recently was the one year anniversary party the Dems threw for him in honor of him changing his registration from Republican to Democrat.

My prediction is that Auday will blow away the competition when disclosures are released later this week. Will he have raised enough money to overcome attacks from every candidate about being a recent Republican donor and a relative newcomer to the 78th Assembly district who has made a career out of marketing sin in the district? That is a monumental mountain to climb, and im not sure all the money in the world can buy you a lift ticket to the top.


Marty Block

Block has been less visible than Arabo, but who hasn't been? He is the establishment, union, "true progressive" candidate. His fundraising prowess is not that of Auday's, but he gets the job done. He has also retained political consultant Richie Ross, who is one of the best Democratic political consultants in the state and is known for his 'no holds barred' style. Given the Republican donor, carpetbagger, purveyor-of-sin baggage Auday has, this race should remain entertaining until the bitter end.


Arlie Ricasa

As recently as last week, Ricasa had not pulled papers at the registrar. It might be nothing, or it might be that she realized with Sherard in the race her advantage of being the female/minority candidate goes out the window.

We should get a pretty good indication of the effort she has put into the race when disclosures are released.


So who is the frontrunner? Arabo, Block and Sherard are each very viable in their own right. Arabo and Block are going to have to spend most of their money tearing down Maxine before they even get around to duking it out between each other, and it still might not be enough. After what the Clintons have pulled in South Carolina, how are the black voters in the district going to respond to what is about to be unleashed on Maxine Sherard?

If I have to pick today before disclosure, I would go with 1) Sherard 2) Block 3) Arabo in a close, bloody primary.