Report from the San Diego Straw Poll
Posted by: Hugh Akston | 12/07/2007 12:30 PM
The annual Salute to Republican Elected Officials took place last night at the Rancho Bernardo Inn. Many of the heavy hitters were absent, but there were still a good deal of electeds in attendance, including Senator Mark Wyland and San Diego City Councilman Kevin Faulconer.
Candidates were also out in full force, including candidate for San Diego City Attorney Jan Goldsmith, Candidates for the 7th City Council seat Carl DeMaio and Bob Ilko, and Candidate for the 52nd Congressional district Ken King.
The event was billed as the Annual Salute, but my guess would be that 90% of the people came exclusively for the straw poll. Once they announced that the polls were open and people could vote, there was a line wrapping half-way around the ballroom for at least 2 hours.
One of the most interesting aspects of last night was the crowd. Although there were the usual suspects – staffers, campaigners, activists and hangers on – there were an exceptional amount of people who I have never seen at a political event. Ron Paul definitely brought in the largest number of new people. About the only Ron Paul supporter there that I actually recognized was Sally Cruever (CRA activist). Paul’s following was made up of mostly young 20/30 something’s dressed in jeans and holding up their Ron Paul signs with great pride at every possible moment. The Romney campaign also energized a group of people that are not at the typical County Party event. The Romney supporters seemed like they came from each age group.
Here are the official results:
Mitt Romney – 117
Ron Paul – 73
Rudy Giuliani – 51
Duncan Hunter – 36
Mike Huckabee – 14
John McCain – 12
Fred Thompson – 10
Tom Tancredo – 0
There are a few things that I find interesting about these results. First is that Hunter did not have a better showing. Rancho Bernardo is a stones throw from his district. He has won a couple straw polls in the past, and it seems like with minimal effort he could have had a stronger showing in his own back yard.
Second, Fred Thompson, who was once the “savior” for our party’s hopes of holding on to the Oval Office, has no tangible organization in California. The same can be said for Huckabee and McCain. Straw polls are not a scientific representation of how voters are leaning at the moment. They are scientific representations of the organization a campaign has locally, of its activist support and of the resources they are willing to commit to energizing their supporters to attend and cast a ballot.
azdrsovy uvjrdqaxg vqrm nvtqul lzvoinar pctf qiwl [URL]http://www.tsgfvzew.gmdctxr.com[/URL] xwjki ksgewl...
thanks and a h/t...
http://www.flashreport.org/blog0a.php?postID=2007120717431243&authID=2005110112071864
While I am not a Ron Paul supporter, I thought it was really awesome to see how many people were there last night rallying for him.
I think the Rudy folks were bolstering actual votes for Ron Paul last minute in an attempt to discredit the event. It was pretty clear.
Rumor has it that Romney flew his Ames Straw poll leftovers back to San Diego last night to eek out a win over the Ron Paul revolution. Straw polls are not what they used to be, any seasoned political veteran will tell you that.
The thing about straw polls, whether they are or are not what they used to be, is that they are not generalizable to even likely voters. Even assuming that the campaigns weren't trying to stuff the ballot boxes, the only thing that you can say in regards to an SDGOP straw poll is that it is representative of those Republican voters in San Diego County who have a high enough involvement level to actually go to an SDGOP fundraising event. This of course is a miniscule subset of likely primary voters that is skewed by a number of factors including the abnormally high involvement levels of the sample. Therefore, nothing about this sample can be generalized as respresentative of the people who will be voting in the Rep. Primary.
The most intriguing thing that I find about this straw poll is its stark contrast with the latest CA polls; which indicates how out of touch the sample of this straw poll (read: leadership, donors, staff, and the like who were in attendance) are with their base.
So you are going to go ahead and assume other straw polls didnt have the same sample (read: leadership, donors, staff and the like who were probably also in attendance) as the SD GOP straw poll the other night?
I would make no such assumption.
The one intersting part of the straw poll is the Paul supporters are not going away. Romney is the establishment's guy. You see a lot of neo conservatives in his and Rudy's camps. While organization has been a staple of his campaign there is no passion. In a way the rise of Obama and Paul in the polling shows one thing. They both have the message that politics as usual will not do anymore. Clinton's fall in the Iowa polls and Romney and Giuliani's soft numbers in Iowa show the public wants something new in both parties. The more establishment Romney appears the more the rank and file will desert him for a candidate of change.
Just to be fair, I also saw CD52 candidate Bob Watkins as well as Duncan D. Hunter's wife making the rounds.
April Boling, Phil Thalheimer and Marshall Merrifield were present as well. The notable absence of Mayor Sanders was odd, while Steve Francis was there working the room.