Increase in Democratic Voter Registration a Concern
Posted by: SB Pietas | 06/21/2008 7:04 PM
Voter registration numbers in San Bernardino County have shifted significantly since the last major election, in 2006. Simply put, the Republican Party is losing voters in San Bernardino County, and the Democratic Party is gaining them.
Also interesting is that every political party in the County, with the exception of the Democratic and American Independent Parties, has lost voters between 2006 and 2008. This includes the Green, Libertarian, and Peace and Freedom Parties--your usual third-parties (the Natural Law Party was reported on in 2006, but not in 2008). The only other grouping to show an increase in voter registration is Non Partisan.
Between 2006 and 2008, a total of 14,786 new voters were registered in San Bernardino County. During the same period, the Republican Party lost 17,046 voters. Third-parties, with the exception of the American Independents, lost 1,539 voters in total. Again, during the same period, 16,980 voters became registered Democrats.
First, I think we can safely discount the increase in registration for the American Independent Party as an aberration. Many individuals registering to vote mistakenly register as American Independent, believing that they are registering not for a political party, but as Non Partisan/Decline to State (see here for more on this phenomenon). As such, I'll count the American Independent Party's increase together with the increase in Non Partisan voters: 16,752
So what we're seeing is movement away from political parties, with the exception of the Democratic Party. People are tiring of partisanship, and are showing it by re-registering in significant numbers as Decline to State (or intending to do so, and registering as American Independent), or by registering as Democrats, whose leaders have publicly opposed partisanship.
The loss of voters in the Republican Party is significant, but is in line with every other party that lost voters. The Republican Party lost 5.3% of their voters, the Greens lost 8.5%, the Libertarians 4.5%, and Peace and Freedom lost 10%. That the more liberal third parties lost a higher percentage of registered voters is a significant observation.
This is not to discredit the victory of the Democratic Party here. This increase in their numbers--bringing them to within 4,182 voters of the Republican Party--is something of a coup. San Bernardino County is known as a fairly Republican county, after all, with four of the five Supervisors being Republicans, four of the five Members of Congress being Republicans, four of the five State Senators being Republicans, and seven of the nine State Assemblymembers being Republicans.
The troubling thing, though, is that the San Bernardino County Republican Central Committee seems to be doing little to register new Republicans. In the past, there have been extensive voter registration efforts. The Central Committee made active efforts to register new Republicans, and it worked. I've seen little being done in this election cycle.
In 2004, President Bush won San Bernardino County by 61,517 votes--largely based on the great accomplishments of the local Republican Party in registering new Republicans. Based on current registration numbers, it seems highly unlikely that Senator McCain could win San Bernardino County by a similar margin.
This is why many sports ban the use of performance enhancing drugs. Another form of doping is blood...
Here is my suggestion, we need to restart the voter registration program and have targeted cities, help reclaim AD 61. Make redistricting miserable for Congressman Baca. If Ontario and Rialto became Republican cities then maybe the district would be competitive. Being always on the offensive is better than being on the defensive.
Also, we need to market our ideas so they would stick with the people of our county. Post weekly advertisements in the local newspapers explaining how Republican leaders in our cities made lives better for the people in our communities. Maybe radio ads on the local stations too.
You have a lot of good Republicans on the bench. Ovitt, Biane, Hagman, etc. They need to step it up and bcome more partisan if the Republican Party is to survive.
First, I think we need to unite behind all of our Republican elected officials (partisan and non-partisan races) and help to insure their victory and re-election in office. Especially during such hard times as these- we need Republicans in office implementing practical and financially feasible legislation to help our economy.
This is a time when they are going to need our help more than ever- with the insane popularity of Obama, the low approval of Bush, etc. While I do believe one should vote based on the candidate- and not the party- I don't think there is a reason to do so in this election. (although, you may beg to differ).
On a County level- I think the current Board has done an excellent job, along with all the staff- and we have seen some great improvements due to their hard work. It has been great to watch them work together as a team to strengthen our County.
As far as the presidential election- I know Senator McCain was not considered the most "conservative" of all of the candidates (and I am the first to admit he was not my first pick), but he is the best candidate. I really respect and admire the man, and think he is a true American hero. I think voting for Obama will not be sticking it to the Republican Party, rather, it will be sticking it to the American people. Not only is Obama not qualified due to his inexperience and age, most importantly, he is not DESERVING due to his anti-American tendencies (and by that I mean the real evidence we have, not the silly e-mail chains).
As recent transplant to the Inland Empire, I offer these thoughts to my fellow Republicans. I have been a registered Republican for nearly fifteen years and until recently have lived in Los Angeles. The party I joined was one of personal responsibility, limited government and individual freedoms, that is not what the Republican party is today.
The Republican party is split, I know we hate to admit it, but it is. The "red meat" social issues for the party base is alienating a large portion of the party and the general population. The inland empire is growing fast and the "Main Street America" feel is disappearing. The explosion in new residents is changing the demographics of the IE and its politics.
The Party needs to start focusing on what it believes in and how our ideas are better for the average citizen instead of what we are against.
I understand that bashing illegal immigration, gay marriage and other social issues are great in getting the base out, but how do those issues impact the average resident in the Inland Empire? Rancho and Yucaipa aren't turning into West Hollywood are they?
How is the Republican Party going to make my everyday life better?
* Lower taxes
* Less government to allow me to achieve what my potential is
* Fiscal responsibility
The social issues are important but they shouldn't be the primary message of the party, our fixation on the social issues are tarnishing the party, that is why we are called bigots, narrow minded ideologues.
I am support marriage to be between a man and a woman, I will be supporting the ballot measure to change that definition.
I also understand the impacts of illegal immigration, living in Los Angeles I saw first hand what illegal immigration does to communities and to our education system. That was the primary reason we left Los Angeles, I knew my children would be shortchanged in the public school system.
These issues are not why I am a Republican.
This one's too easy ...
"The Republican have been active participants in the destruction of the greatest phenomen in the history of the world - The American middle-class," foolishly giving away our well paying "middle-class" jobs to 3rd world countries ... to satisfy Wall Street greed ...
So why would formerly middle-class Americans, who have seen their status/income/viability diminished ... stay with the party of the selfish elite who has little interest in them?"
imo
Exactly!
If we remain disorganized and weak, the Democrats will eat us alive again. We are giving the Democratic party enough ammunition to turn San Bernardino County a blue county. The county party is a pale imitation of what it used to be.
It may be too late for 2008, but in 2010 we should have an establishment that would raise money for our county party. Maybe have a donor's club where you can donate 100 before a meeting and have an extra 45 minutes with the invited speaker, take a photograph and stuff like that, kind of like what Los Angeles County does. Supervisor Ovitt should take a trip to the Los Angeles County Party's central committee meeting and see how good they have turned their organization.
Maybe our chairman could have a dinner with the Boyd family and figure out how to make our county party successful.
I am so loving all this. Best spectator event in a while, watching the Republican Party trying to figure out what happened as if it wasn't as obvious as the nose of their faces.