How can a supervisor be "popular" and enjoy the tremendouse advantage of an incumbent, yet still lose?

Weak attempt at spin, Jessica.

^ True

Unfortunately, there has been a pleothera of shoddy analysis from commenters and posters on this blog recently.

I must respectfully disagree with Jessica. An incumbent who is sent packing is not "popular". And it seems that Jessica's decision to describe Derry's win as unfortunate runs completely counter to her later comments about party unity and cohesion.

With respect to the two comments above, I must have slipped into an episode of the twilight zone. Incumbents are almost always at an advantage.

Of course, giving no bid contracts to felons, contracts to girlfriends, watching staffers benefit from land deals and then voting against huge benefits and later accepting them tends to negate the incumbency factor.

However, lets look at incumbency in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties this election cycle.

The two incumbent Riverside County Supervisors won by landslides. None of the Congressional or State Legislative incumbents even faced a challenger, save for Bono. In the two open seats, two local electeds battled it out in one and a termed out assemblyman beat out a former assemblyman for the senate seat.

In San Bernardino County, incumbent Josie Gonzales ran unopposed. Quasi-incumbent Mitzelfelt, the chief of staff of the previous Supervisor, won in a landslide.

All Congressional candidates either ran unopposed or won with 65% of the vote or more.

Similar stories in the state races.

Additionally, Colton Mayor Kelly Chastain easily survived a recall effort.

Aside from Christman in Loma Linda (which was entirely a local issues based campaign), can someone please point to where incumbency was a liability this cycle?

It sure would be nice if some folks gave Derry credit when credit is due.

I have to agree with Mr. Turner. Even right here on this blog with his own people one minute he was a golden boy, the next he was being ripped apart and then he was the candidate of choice again, and then the devil reincarnate. One needed a score card to keep up with it. That had to be disheartening yet he persevered.

On my own blog Neil took the time, unsolicited, to answer questions and address concerns of my readers over a period of days. I doubt my blog reached more than maybe 500-1000 potential Third District voters over a period of a week and yet he was willing to take the time to communicate with them. If Neil did that for us, I can only imagine how many larger blogs, forums and other medium where he did the same. He really reached out to the voters in a variety of methods and I think that impressed a lot of people. Hansberger remained aloof and unapproachable.

When you consider Neil's connections to Postmus and Erwin, both of which are considered a negative by many, his feat is even more impressive as those connections would cause some to vote for his opponent. I disagree with him on a majority of issues yet as a county employee I am very comfortable having him on the BOS and would have voted for him if I lived in the Third District. I don't think anyone should discount his victory or how hard he worked for it.

Mr. Turner:

As a long time county resident; A few observations: You're right. There has been some shoddy analysis on this blog lately and some of it is coming from you. I could have really cared less about the third district seat; mainly because I don't live in that district. Incumbency was a factor in this specific race because Derry made it an factor. (ie; see mailers and billboards)

As far as both candidates, I am not as familiar with Mr. Derry as I am Mr. Hansberger. I do know Mr. Hansberger to be a very nice and decent person. And as far as the headlines in the papers, you should be one to know better. If we believed everything we read, I would have good reason to think that someone is a member of the KKK...

Lastly, but most importantly, think before you write. Obviously Mr. Hansberger was somewhat respected by his constituents because they have been voting him into office for 20 years. To say that he is not respected or liked by his community is extremely far fetched. They may want change now, but they did't before. Pardon me, how many elections have you won?

I think you're just kissing up to those who now have power for your own personal reasons. So be it.

Mr./Ms. Reality Check:

You state that my analysis has been shoddy and your support for this assertion is the following:

1. Incumbency was a factor because Derry made it a factor.
2. I suggested he was not respected.

Then you take a shot at me for supposedly kissing up to those who now have power.

Interesting stuff here. Let me dissect.

First, it would be nice to know who my critics are. It is always fun to be blasted by the anonymous. I have never posted anonymously on this blog and have never hid in the shadows.

And frankly, it is has probably been far more hassle than its worth. But again, that is why so many people chirp from the peanut gallery.

First, you state that incumbency was a factor because Derry made it a factor. Great. Fantastic. Brilliant.

That was not my point and I think you knew that...or at least I hope you understood that. The assertion was made by another that incumbency was not an advantage in this election cycle. No, incumbency was not an asset in the Hansberger v. Derry race.

And there are reasons for that. Just because incumbency was not an advantage in this particular race, it does not logically follow that incumbency is a negative in general, as the original commenter argued.

Please tell me you understand this distinction.

On the second point, I never stated that Hansberger wasn't respected. Please tell me you understand the distinction between being popular, well liked and respected?

Obviously, the man has his fans as he has been in office for years and still gathered a significant pecentage of the vote.

I respect a lot of people that I do not personally like or agree with.

Again, not mutually exclusive propositions here.

So, this is the support for your suggestion that my analysis is shoddy. Pretty weak take on your part and probably why you rather chime in anonymously. It is much safer.

With respect to your final barb you hurled my way...let me expound.

Hmmm...during my City Clerk's campaign, I was blasted by a hit piece paid for by the East Valley Taxpayer's Coalition. A group that "endorsed" Hansberger and a group that I believe has/had ties to Riismiller.

During this campaign season, was I on this blog slamming Hansberger or praising/kissing up to Derry? Obviously, I don't have a snowballs chance in hell of working for Hansberger...so, what good would that do me.

And if I was trying to suck up for a job with someone in power, wouldn't it have made sense for me to praise and blog on behalf of Derry here?

Did I?

Curiously, I would love for you to point to any example of me kissing up to anyone in power and show me exactly where I benefitted?

Did my kissing up procure an endorsement from the San Bernardino County GOP when I was running for City Clerk against a sitting Democratic incumbent?

No. In fact, Matt Brown, a chief of staff to one of the other supervisors on the board, voted against endorsing me. His boss endorsed Hansberger. Obviously, I don't think there is a job for me in that office.

I was and am an executive board member of the SB GOP Central Committee. And yet, I was denied an endorsement.

Does that even remotely support the notion that I am a kiss-up to power?

Last time I checked, I haven't been bashful about calling out fellow Republicans and other high ranking individuals in this county. And I have never hid behind a psuedonym.

And, my analysis is shoddy?

Do to a submission error on my first attempt to post the above, my post his missing my name.