2008 Presidential: Advantage McCain
Posted by: SB Veritas | 04/26/2008 7:37 PM
Absent a total disintergration, Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) at this point has the definite edge this November.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-New York) and her temporary resurgence should in no way provide so-called Democratic Super Delegates the staying power to decide their party's nomination in favor of Clinton over Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) for one simple reason, party division.
Think about it. Will the Dem Super Delegates take the Obama nomination away? The answer is no way. Why? The damage will be too great.
Analyzing the Democratic primary map, Obama and Clinton are appealing to clearly different voter bases. Clinton, states with traditional white and blue collar suburbanites, and Obama, those states with populous industrial inner-cities. Remember, the caucus voting format has been skewed towards Obama's advantage, so a Presidential Election ballot dramatically alters the status quo. Under a no-caucus structure would Obama be the topic of conversation today? Probably not. While the view is still somewhat hazy, it is becoming more likely the potential exists for a more centrist McCain to pull away Independent and Democratic voters unwilling to move to Obama.
It's a very interesting equation to say the least. Republican conservatives questioning McCain, and conservative democrats increasingly leary of Obama.
The question will be, which base will remain with their candidate?


