In San Bernardino County's Campaign 2007, one race stood out for its dramatic swinging of reporting numbers. No doubt causing headaches for the candidates - and also producing Maalox moments for their supporters -  the campaign for the San Bernardino City Council's Sixth Ward saw 1) a close contest between two of three candidates, 2) a candidate held just under the threshold for avoiding a runoff election, and 3) a candidate avoiding a runoff election by 14 votes.

So, with each report producing more election drama, the question is: How did Van Johnson, the Ward 6 election leader, do it? And what exactly were the numbers, broken down by each new report from the county registrar of voters.

Red County San Bernardino will break down the raw data:

First results, Tuesday November 6, 8:30 PM:

Rikke Van Johnson:  282 votes 44%

Betty Dean Anderson: 267 votes 42%

Stewart Cumming 72  11%

Second report, Wednesday November 7, 2:08 AM

These results are figures in green are solely from new reports, the complete totals in parenthesis:

Rikke Van Johnson:  369 votes   53.6% (total Van Johnson 651 votes   49%)

Betty Dean Anderson:  255 votes  37% (total Anderson 522 votes   39%)

Stewart Cumming:   64 votes   9.3% (total Cumming   136   10%)

Third report, Friday November 9, 4:23 PM

Again, these figures are totals from the report, cumulative in parenthesis:

Van Johnson:  119 votes   58.3% (770 votes   50.56%)

Anderson:   65 votes   31.8%   (587 votes   38.54%

Cumming:   20 votes   9.8%   (156 votes   10%)

Some observers have wondered, how is it mathematically possible for such wild swings in this race, when other races remained constant? For instance, Jim Penman never saw his cumulative vote have such dramatic swings, and neither did any other candidate in races for various offices. What happened in the Sixth to produce such dramatic turn of events?

Well, Betty Dean Anderson positioned herself to the political right of Rikke Van Johnson. Anderson is also older than Van Johnson.

Thus, it was unsurprising when early postal vote returns showed Anderson just 15 votes shy of Van Johnson, as vote-by-mail results often tend to favour older and more conservative voters. This factor could help explain Betty Dan Anderson's strong initial report.

Results from Election Day precincts continued to show improvement in Van Johnson's numbers. Many factors could account for this, including the following:

1. What kind of get-out-the-vote drive on Election Day did the two candidates manage?

2. How were the "GOTV" drills executed? Did the campaigns merely deliver election reminder calls? Or did the campaigns employ a sophisticated voter identification project earlier in the campaign calender, and then work to get their identified supporters out to the polls?

3. What level of precinct operation was there? A voter identification project? Or just campaign literature distribution? If campaign canvassers and precinct walkers were used, did they just engage in voter advocacy, or was it a supporter identification project that would be used on Election Day to bring their supporters to the polls?

All of these questions can be answered, as the campaigns know what they did and did not do. However, it appears Rikke Van Johnson had a far superior Election Day get Out The Vote operation than the campaign of Betty Dean Anderson.

In fact, a report on Red County San Bernardino published Tuesday night as part of its live election night coverage seems to confirm the anecdotal observation of, at the very least, a lax Andseron GOTV operation.

On Election Night, at 7:30 PM, Betty Dean Anderson was already seated at her campaign wrap party, along with several of her campaign supporters. This was thirty minutes before the polls closed! How long she and her top supporters had already been there is anyone's guess. The question of why the candidate's supporters were already preparing for a celebration and not working the precincts for their candidate may indicate a stunning absence of an effective ground game. That absence would only be compounded if Rikke Van Johnson engaged in even modest attempts at bringing out his supporters.

Now, of course, there is talk of a recount in the contest where just under 1500 total votes were cast.

For Betty Dean Anderson supporters, there still is hope that a runoff in February may occur, if further results or a recount shows Van Johnson's total support under 50%. But even if that happens, a lot of work must be undertaken to ensure an Anderson victory in three months, as Van Johnson demonstrated that his GOTV operation is a level above his competition.