San Bernardino City Council Ward Six: West Side Story, To Be Continued
Posted by: SB Insider | 11/07/2007 4:54 PM
There is only one race in San Bernardino left to be decided in a runoff, that being the contest to represent San Bernardino's Sixth Ward.
First-term incumbent Rikke Van Johnson is facing former city councilmember Betty Dean Anderson in the seat that encompasses the city's predominately-minority west side. Van Johnson, a small businessperson, edged Anderson out of her seat in 2003 by a very slim margin.
Back for a rematch, Betty Dean Anderson emerged from the beginning as Rikke Van Johnson's main opponent (a third underfunded candidate also entered the race). With support from the San Bernardino Police Officers Association, City Attorney Jim Penman and several councilmembers, Anderson hit the ground running with both solid support and strong background as a community leader.
Not to be outdone, Rikke Van Johnson countered with support from the city's popular mayor, city council endorsements of his own, labor support, and the endorsement of the county's Democratic Party (the constituency has an overwhelming DEM voter advantage). Johnson also worked his constituency hard, raising district concerns on issues ranging from police funding, job growth, and constituent services.
When the dust settled on Election Night, Van Johnson was thisclose to winning outright. However, Betty Dean Anderson's strength among early voters apparently helped keep the game going to February 2008.
On Feb 5, 2008 - the day of California's presidential primary - voters in the Sixth Ward will once again vote on a council race. The potential for large turnout and who that may help is anyone's guess, but I think the climate heading into the runoff benefits Van Johnson most.
Consider: The Democratic Party presidential race will be in full swing, with the race most likely narrowed down to three candidates. Among the DEM presidential candidates still campaigning will likely be Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Both Democrats Clinton and Obama have large followings and in an overwhelming Democratic seat such as the Sixth, that can only be a plus for the Democratic Party-endorsed Van Johnson.
Rikke van Johnson is already preparing for the runoff, and he appears to be framing the contest as an "us-versus-them" race. In comments to the San Bernardino Sun, Van Johnson takes direct aim at Betty Dean Anderson's support from outside the Sixth Ward, stating "I’m sure there will be a lot of outside forces that will try to come in and influence the voters 6th ward on how they should be represented."
Three races settled, one to go...
Mr. Insider:
Your attempt to make this race into a "race" is admirable...but from this outsider's viewpoint it doesn't pass the smell test.
Democrats will turn out in far greater numbers than Republicans the next time around and that alone dooms Ms. Anderson's candidacy. Not to mention that Van Johnson came within a whisker of winning outright in the primary.
The GOP can spin all it wants. It can huff and puff all it wants. But this seat is owned by the Democratic party unless there is a very small turnout (such as last Tuesday).
That will not happen on February 5.
Van Johnson will be re-elected.
Did you even read the analysis?
I came up with the same conclusiion as you.
Please re-read paragraph six. I wrote "I think the climate heading into the runoff benefits Van Johnson most."
In the very next paragraph I, as you did, pointed to the same factor of a strong DEM turnout in February which is only likely to help Rikke Van Johnson's re-election.