A familiar face may once again be throwing his hat into the ring to challenge GOP incumbent Congressman David Dreier: liberal publishing baron Russ Warner of Rancho Cucamonga. Warner is seeking the Democratic Party nod to challenge Dreier despite Warner's spectacular failure in 2006, when the wealthy magazine magnate lost his party's nomination to perennial political candidate Cynthia Matthews. Mathhews would later lose to Dreier in one of the most lopsided victories for a Republican incumbent on the West Coast.

Well, not less than one year after his convincing rejection by his own party's voters (Warner received just 36% of the vote and could not win either the portion of Los Angeles County or the area of his home county of San Bernardino that is located in the 26th), it looks and sounds like Warner is back for more.

So far this year, according to campaign fundraising figures, Russ Warner has raised a little over $22,000 for a 2008 run.  Furthermore, according to the clued-in kewl kids at uber-liberal website Calitics.com, Warner has parted ways with the woefully-inept ragtag crew that "managed" his '06 train wreck of a campaign and has instead hired a real political professional (as yet unnamed) in his attempt to at least qualify at a chance for the big game in November 2008.

So what makes a Warner campaign in 2008 different from his 2006 disaster? Well, here is some sobering news that Warner and his supporters may need to consider before deciding if a second run is feasible, or even wise.

Case in point: Russ Warner had all the momentum heading into June 2006 Primary Election and still came up dreadfully short. We are talking a big mo: the official endorsement of the mighty California Democratic Party, support from Washington's Democratic establishment, a decent direct mail campaign, a highly-visible lawn sign and bumper sticker effort, and a paid staff managing a loyal unit of excited volunteers.

All the signs pointed to not just a Warner victory, but a convincing one at that.

But what happened? Well, Warner failed to properly measure the depth of support for his opponents, Cynthia Matthews and a third candidate named Hoyt Hilsman. Matthews simply had residual name identification from her previous run for public office and benefited from being the lone female on the ballot with two males. Russ Warner made no effort to specifically target female voters highlighting his endorsements from women lawmakers, relying instead on a mail piece to district voters featuring his endorsement by Beltway insider Wesley Clark.

Can Warner win this time? Well, for starters, he is likely to face Cynthia Matthews in the Primary, who probably sincerely believes that the third time is the charm in her career as a Congressional candidate. There appears to be bad blood between the two Democratic rivals, and Matthews has got to feel confident after besting him last year. Second, the 26th is tough turf for any liberal politician (partisan Republicans at all levels of government, district re-elected President Bush in 2004). Third, David Dreier is a dogged campaigner who is a veteran of numerous difficult races, knowing full well how to raise the needed camapign warchest, hire talented staffers, and he can genearte excitement from his constituents who he has dutifully represented (and represented well) for over 25 years.

The formula for a Russ Warner victory doesn't seem to be in place just yet, but it's worth keeping watch on this district, especially given the possibility that the financially well-endowed publishing titan may self-fund a campaign. However, given Russ Warner's track record, perhaps just winning a Democratic Party primary will be equally as good as going to Washington as a member-elect to the House of Representatives.