Under the radar of the flurry of announcements for state offices, there's some new news coming down the pike about the other titanic battle for the Republican Party's heart and soul, the much-talked about Senate primary between Governor Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio. Mason-Dixon conducted an external poll whose results were made public yesterday, and immediately the media picked up on the big numbers in the poll, that being Crist's very large lead over Rubio.

And let's be clear, a 53% level of support for Crist over 18% for Rubio with fifteen months till primary day is nothing to shake a stick at, even after your first glance. Despite everything, it proves two things about Crist's abilities: first, he retains his original base of support amongst less ideological Republicans, and second, he has been able to establish himself amongst a good bit of the base that he is the candidate who can keep this Senate seat red come November 2010. That level of credibility goes a long way when you can claim it this early in an election.

But that legitimate good news aside, there are still some very encouraging polling numbers for the Rubio campaign. Rubio has a hell of a road to hoe in erasing a 25 point margin against an established incumbent. But the poll also shows Crist's approval rating to be at just 49%, with 34% holding a neutral opinion. For a supposedly entrenched incumbent, that leaves a pretty fair swath of primary voters who are open to supporting somebody else, to say nothing of the 30% of voters who couldn't choose between Crist or Rubio. Also, Rubio seems to be flagging due to a severe lack of name recognition; only 22% of respondents knew enough of Rubio to say whether they viewed him favorably or unfavorably. But of those respondents, 20% viewed him favorably, while just 2% viewed him unfavorably.

While that sample size is obviously very small (22% of 650 total respondents), it certainly suggests that when Republican primary voters actually get to know Marco Rubio, more likely than not they like what he's selling. If he catches fire with fundraising over the next six months and can develop a full-scale budget to increase his exposure, and those favorability trends are not affected by Crist's response, he'll be doing a lot better in future polls.

But let's be clear, Crist remains the clear frontrunner in this race and has institutional support and access to fundraisers that Rubio's campaign can only dream of. That said, small donors can still prove a reliable source of cash flow for Rubio, especially if emnity over Crist's past actions and the NRSC's endorsement do not subside amongst the conservative base. One thing's for sure, come July 15 the political establisment in Florida will be keeping a very close eye on the Q2 financial statements of these campaigns, as they may prove a critical benchmark in how well suited both are to win this primary.

In other news, Crist was endorsed by Senator John McCain today, likely a favor called in from Crist's 11th hour endorsement of McCain before the Florida primary in January of 2008. Likely won't mean much in the numbers, but it does give Crist the opportunity to tap McCain's own donor base in Arizona and his national Country First PAC. Cash flow is king, folks.

And finally, Governor Crist has signalled he does intend to sign the budget passed by the Florida legislature last week, which includes considerable increases in taxes and fees. This comes after he signed a No New Taxes pledge from the Americans for Tax Reform group. Will the conservative echo chamber pick this up? And how will Speaker Rubio respond? Could prove an interesting chapter in the long narrative we call an election.