With the Republicans fighting to prevent the wholesale government takeover of healthcare while looking towards the next election in 13 months, the political landscape is changing in ways that present them with some risks and some opportunities. While the last two months have been tough for the Obama Administration and the Democrats, Republicans who think that they can just sit back and let Democrat miscues carry them to victory next November are likely fooling themselves. While Obama’s approval numbers have dropped significantly since the beginning of summer, the Republicans have only really seen a modest improvement in their own numbers. Going forward, the Republicans face some serious, but not insurmountable risks to their dream of recapturing one or both houses of Congress.

Firstly, the Republicans have not made any serious attempt to present an alternative health care reform plan. While they have been very successful pointing out deficiencies in the various plans and offering important suggestions for certain piecemeal reforms, the lack of a comprehensive reform package that they are willing to promote strongly and loudly makes the Republicans appear (whether fairly or not) that they are not really contributing any ideas. Allowing themselves to be branded as the Party of No (as the Democrats will attempt to do) is not a strong argument for turning over the reins of government to them next November. A second risk is that the economy appears to be improving. While this won’t matter if unemployment stays high, the likelihood of unemployment going down increases as the economy improves. Ben Bernanke has generally not done a bad job considering the circumstances in which he was operating, and I don’t expect him to make a serious mistake that will negatively impact the economy over the short-term. An improving employment picture lessens the potential damage to the Democrats in next year’s election.

However, the recent shifting of the political winds has also presented the Republicans with some opportunities. Firstly, Obama’s radical lurch to the left has made the electorate more receptive to Republicans that at any time in the last five years. Secondly, Obama’s constant talking to the American people through various media appearances and press conference has likely overexposed him, meaning that people are beginning to tune him out. In addition, the fact that he has been shown to be untruthful regarding health care reform and his attempt to ram reform through without much debate in July and early August has damaged his credibility. Finally, an improving economy presents the Republicans with an opportunity to argue that the rest of the stimulus money (the majority of which has not yet paid out) should be canceled to save money. That this suggestion would be acted upon by Congress is unlikely, but it presents the Republicans with an opportunity to present themselves as more fiscally responsible than the Democrats.

If the Republicans are to win back Congress, they are going to have to present a coherent case to the American people that they should be given control. While the political winds are blowing in the Republicans direction, simply sitting back and letting this carry them to victory won’t work. The Republicans are going to have to want victory next November more than the Democrats, and spend every moment from now until then working for it.