Q2 predictions!

By Matt Mitchell | 07/01/09 | 07:52 PM EDT | 2 Comments

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Well, the game that voters don't care about but strategists obsess over (mainly because it impacts their own bottom line), but means quite a bit in the grand scheme of campaigns is on.

Just how much have the top-tier candidates for the highest-profile seats raised over the past three months? The day after each reporting period ends, I'll offer some predictions based on the sundry sinister scuttlebutt and public expectations raising for the statewide elections in Florida, plus some of the big-name Congressional races in the state. And this Friday, I'll be doing a new podcast on the very high-profile Florida Senate race between Governor Crist and Marco Rubio, cutting through the clutter about a set of new polls we've seen in the race.

But without further adieu, here are my predictions:

US Senate

Charlie Crist (R) - $5,500,000. Rubio's been upselling Crist's haul like mad for the past few days, suggesting the Governor will raise as much as $10 million as of yesterday. And while Rubio is wise not to underestimate Crist's incredible fundraising powers (in his first gubernatorial campaign, Crist raised over $3 million in his first quarter). But in two months, even Rubio's low estimate of $8 million is a little too generous. But $5.5 million is nothing to shake a stick at, by any stretch of the imagination.

Marco Rubio (R) - $1,200,000. Frankly, this is a generous prediction by me. He might be able to have raised this amount of money, but he needs to raise this much to justify continuing a Senatorial campaign. While there are encouraging numbers for him, raising $1-2 million a quarter against a candidate outraising him 5 to 1 in a state with 10 top tier TV markets just is not going to buy Rubio the name recognition he needs to win.

Kendrick Meek (D) - $1,750,000. Meek can't beat Rubio or Crist, but dammit if the guy can't raise money well for a two term Congressman who's had his entire political career handed to him on a plate.

Corrine Brown (D) - $250,000. Brown got a late start and hasn't had to run a real election in ten years. Her campaign is still in the exploratory phase, and while she may stick around through the end of the year, I would a little surprised if she holds on through the whole primary.

Florida Governor

Bill McCollum (R) - $3,000,000. The rapid unifying of the state Republican establishment has probably given McCollum an unnatural boost in fundraising out of the gate. He won't outraise Crist, but $3,000,000 still closes in on Crist's 2006 fundraising records. Also, it's definitely a target the campaign ought to be shooting for in order to scare off the Paula Dockeries of the world.

Alex Sink (D) - $2,500,000. The Florida Democratic establishment is not quite the fundraising monster that RPOF can be for their candidates. But Sink is a serious candidate with a banking industry background, so she puts in a very respectable quarter to start off her campaign.

Florida Attorney General

Dan Gelber (D) - $250,000. Like his Democrat colleague Dave Aronberg, Gelber was hindered by legislative session, which crimps fundraising time for members. That and low race visibility means a low number to start.

Dave Aronberg (D) - $250,000. I'm gonna guesstimate about the same for Aronberg too.

No Republicans have declared yet, but look for Jeff Kottkamp, Holly Benson to wait and see if Rubio drops out of the Senate race to run for AG. On the Democrat side, also look for Rod Smith to make a decision about running in the next couple months.

Chief Financial Officer

Jeff Atwater (R) - $450,000. Atwater has scared the living daylights out of any potential Democratic opponents. Yesterday state Rep. Pat Patterson (R-DeLand) announced he'd run and primary the sitting Senate President, but Atwater is a banker and political royalty. He'll cruise through this.

Commissioner of the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services

(Yes, that is the official title.)
 

Adam Putnam (R) - $250,000+. This was announced by Putnam's campaign on Facebook. No surprises here, and puts his warchest at about $700,000 right now.

Carey Baker (R) - $100,000. If Putnam weren't running in this race, this would be more impressive on Senator Baker's part.

Eric Draper (D) - N/A. He just formally declared last week. As an environmental lobbyist, he can make up for lost time out of the gate, but is unlikely to pull out a win in the general elections.

 

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2 Comments | Related Topics »FLORIDA

 

Comments

 
It is all about money

We have sunk so low that we now have created a new aristocracy - those who can raise enough money to win. Gee sounds just like the landed gentry in merry old England in 1776. We have a new House of Lords, or Lords of the Golden Rings or just plain corrupt politicians.

Looks like the price of a Senate seat from the great state of Florida is around $10 million. Nice, real nice. As Thomas Payne said, "“society is produced by our wants and government by our wickedness.” We are buying wickedness.

Submitted by Rich Swier on Thu, 07/02/09 - 06:05 AM » | Print
 
 
Eh...

I think what people should watch for is what kind of impact grassroots organizing through the Internet can have on campaigning, namely whether it can level the playing field between fundraising monsters and people with local support.

Unfortunately, it's more an issue of just how much you need to raise to ensure name recognition. Obviously for people like Crist, it's more to scare people off from primarying him, so I guess that's an aristocratic mentality. But for a large state like Florida, you really do need $15-20 million just to get your name and face out there, no matter how good or bad you are as a potential candidate. In smaller states, money isn't quite as much of a game changer, because candidates really can build relationships with communities that can earn votes money can't buy. But in a state with 13 million + registered voters, that's a lot harder to do.

The sad thing is, none of the ways of making campaigns more accessible in terms of starting price are all that great. Mandatory public financing is a possibility, but generally speaking the people who benefit most from that system are incumbents.

Submitted by Matt Mitchell on Thu, 07/02/09 - 08:40 AM » | Print
 

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