With the high-profile race for NY-23 headed to the finish line today, some of Red County’s best and brightest offered up their insights as to how this one would come out.

From Tyler Gaastra:

Unfortunately, I think Owens will win. Scozzafava’s decision to drop out and endorse Owens will push him over the top. Scozzafava had a large lead among women voters. Also, women in the district tend to be more liberal and favor liberal proposals like the public option. (See Daily Kos Poll).  Hoffman will surely rally conservative support and hopefully pull in more independents. But, I think the demographics are against Hoffman on this one. The only other wildcard is voter enthusiasm. If the women supporters of Scozzafava lose interest and stay home on election day, the pure enthusiasm of the Hoffman campaign will push him over the edge. As of right now, I think Hoffman probably loses a squeaker. Beware of voter backlash against what is perceived to be far-right meddling from Palin et al.

Owens:48%
Hoffman: 46%
Scozzafava: 6%
 

From Joshua Sharf:

This one's going to be a little closer than most people think.  While the betting right now has Hoffman picking up almost all of Scozzafava's votes, her support was about 3-1 Republicans to Democrats.  So those Democrats are going home, along with some of the more liberal Republicans.  Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens will probably pull along a couple of dozen more votes, including her close relations.  And there will also be some Republicans who want to support the party structure, or who won't have heard that Dede's done.  The Dems are dumping a ton of money into the race, and never discount the SEIU's ability to get those non-existent, ACORN-registered voters to the polls.

Bottom line, Hoffman wins, but it's not a runaway.

Hoffman: 48%
Owens: 45%
Scozzafava: 7%
 

From Mike Proto:

Well, in NY-23, Dede Scozzafava was forced out of this race by conservatives who said she was too liberal. Now, she has proven us quite right with her endorsement of the liberal Bill Owens over conservative Doug Hoffman. In any case, with Scozzafava remaining on the ballot one would expect her to still receive some votes. So my prediction for this race is for a Hoffman victory, albeit much closer than recent races in this district. Final results:

Hoffmann: 51%
Owens: 45%
Scozzafava: 4%

I’m from New Jersey, so let me throw in here as a bonus that in our governor's race, Independent candidate Chris Daggett remains the unknown factor. Some polls have shown Daggett with as much as 15% of the vote. But my intuition tells me Christie's recent attacks on Daggett have hurt him --and with Corzine and Christie within the margin of error, many voters will not waste their vote on him upon entering the voting booth. As such I don't see Daggett getting more than double digits - and I see long-suffering New Jersey taxpayers breaking toward Christie in what will be a squeaker. Final result: Christie 48%, Corzine 46%, Daggett 6%.

From Eric Ingemunson:

I'm predicting Hoffman wins handily with 55 percent of the vote. A late poll has him at 51 percent right now with 13 percent of people, presumably with Halloween hangovers, still supporting Scozzafava. I expect more than a few of them to switch to Hoffman once they get some sleep.
 

From Matt Mitchell:

You have to look at any election as two elections in one. The first election is the absentee/early voting phase. With about 30-40% of the votes in any Congressional race being cast in this phase, any election could already be decided in this phase alone, with Election Day being a mere formality. So looking back to when voters first started getting their absentee ballots in the mail, Hoffman had no money, no momentum and no name recognition, while Owens and Scozzafava had all three. With no early voting in NY-23 alongside absentee voting, Hoffman goes into Election Day already trailing Owens. I bet Hoffman wins by double digits among Election Day voters. But unless Election Day turnout is way higher than absentee turnout (which is still plausible, by the way), Hoffman could lose this race. And with Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens, this race gets all that much harder to prognosticate, and further complicates Hoffman's path to victory.

I only give the win to Doug Hoffman on the strength of his get out the vote effort, and expect he'll be the second most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the House for 2010 behind Rep. Anh Cao (R-LA-2).

Hoffman: 44.9%
Owens: 44.1%
Scozzafava: 11%
 

From Angie Vogt:

The mainstream media continues to misread the national mood as a confused electorate, with Democrats divided and Republicans leaderless. Newt Gingrich's endorsement of Scozzafava weeks ago contributed to the liberal media "conventional wisdom"  that Republicans need to look and act more like Democrats in order to win elections. I laugh out loud every time the media describes Scozzafava as a "moderate Republican." There is nothing moderate about Dede. She's more liberal than her former democrat opponent, Owens.

We now know that Scozzafava's nomination was more of an anomaly than an intentional choice. Newt Gingrich has corrected his story that she was unanimously elected at four different district meetings. When tea party conservatives rose up in rebellion over Newt's endorsement, conservative Republican leaders from across the country eagerly jumped on the Hoffman bandwagon.  

I believe Hoffman is going to win quite handily. The area is not moderate, they are conservative. Like the much of the country, the voters of NY-23 are fed up with being told that their values of limited government and low taxes are unrealistic and unreasonable. NY-23 is the Battle of Lexington in the coming Revolution of 2010. Hoffman's shot will be heard around the country. Final numbers will be:

Hoffman 45%
Owens 36%
Scozzafava 15% 

The one concern I am picking up on is voter turnout.  I believe that should be more of a problem with the Democrats.
 

From Michael Swartz:

Owens 44, Hoffman 43, Scozzafava 13. I think the loyal Republicans among the older set (who vote most) have already sent in their absentee ballots (which will hurt Hoffman), plus Dede did have name recognition from being a Assemblyman in the district. And don't discount that Hoffman actually lives just outside the boundaries of the 23rd District.

Owens: 44%
Hoffman: 43%
Scozzafava: 13%
 

From Michele Samuelson:

Mind-blowing though it was to see Dede Scozzafava drop out of the race altogether, the dynamics in NY-23 appear to have stayed the same.  All you have now is less vote-splitting, and I think it is safe to say that most of Scozzafava's supporters lean more naturally left than right.  How many of them, though, could stomach voting for a Democrat?  That, I think, is the great unknowable in this increasingly over-analyzed Congressional race.  How many of Scozzafava's loyalists were party-voting Republicans, and will her announcement put them off voting altogether?  Will they throw the race to Democrat Bill Owens?  Are any of them ideologues who could be swayed by Doug Hoffman?

If I had to gauge it from the momentum we're seeing all over the internet and in conservative circles at home, I think Doug Hoffman could pull this off.  The country's mood, and just the blowback we saw from the various Republican snafu endorsements in NY-23, give Hoffman the advantage (I'm a political junkie, and I couldn't easily recall the Democrat's name...).  The point, though, is that the vast majority of us who have an opinion don't have a vote.  Is NY-23 a real microcosm of these United States in 2009?  The greater question for us all will be what happens after Hoffman wins - or, perhaps more deeply perplexing, what happens if he doesn't.  

Hoffman: 49%
Owens: 47%
Others: 4%

...as you can see, these writers generally lean towards Hoffman--let's hope they're right!