So, which is it? Daily Joke with Charlie up by 5 or This Poll with McClintock up by 14.

Given recent news about ACORN and the fact that ACORN has offices here in Auburn and Nevada City, one has to wonder if ACORN's election fraud issues are going to spill over here.

Also, since Charlie Brown has been chickening out of debates lately, this is not an indication of a strong campaign.

Next, Charlie is also going to the far left for support (Madeline Allbright, Barbara Lee) and the Blue Dogs are no where to be found.

Finally, first there was the effigy, then there were/are the left wing blogs crowing about their liberal and now there are the revelations about Central Sierra Credit Union...

This has GOT to hurt.

Please note that the blog referenced is no friend of Republicans.

http://bayneweb.com/blog/?p=2097

By Randy Bayne

Just days after a poll by respected polling firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates showed Democratic challenger Bill Durston in a virtual tie with Congressman Dan Lungren for the 3rd Congressional District seat, Lungren's campaign has released the results of two polls of their own. Unsurprisingly, both polls show Lungen with a sizable lead.

One survey, with a sample size of 400 registered voters in the 3rd Congressional District, showed Lungren with a 47.2 percent to 26.5 percent lead over Durston, an emergency room doctor from Gold River. That survey, completed Oct. 7, was done by pollster Val Smith and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

A second survey, completed on Oct. 9 of 300 registered voters in the district, gave Lungren a 45-25 edge. Moore Information did that survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent.

Both campaigns are standing by the results of their own polls while they discount the results of the opponent's.

The Lungren polls each have a rather high, 5% and 6%, margin or error. The Durston poll has a more reliable 4% error margin. A lower margin of error is generally indicative of better reliability.

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates is a highly respected polling firm whose client list includes mostly progressive candidates, groups, and causes. One of the pollsters used by the Lungren campaign, Val Smith, recently did a poll for Tom McClintock showing him leading Charlie Brown in the 4th Congressional District race by 14 percentage points. Most other reputable polls show Brown in the lead. The other Lungren poll was done by Moore Information. Their clients are mostly conservative causes and candidates, including many state Republican parties, and such notable candidates as Richard Pombo. (Note how this blogger calls Left-Wing Blog Daily Kos reputable and calls the two polls they are done most - we call this bias)

Polls are only as good as the people doing the polling, the questions asked, the way the questions are asked, the universe of people being polled, and how that universe is defined. These kinds of polls are usually done to illicit particular results to help fund raising efforts and energize supporters. They rarely reflect accurately what can be expected at the polls.

If I had to draw any conclusions from these three polls it would be this. Lungren is not going to have as easy a time in the stretch as he did in 2006. Durston has picked up substantial support and Lungren has lost quite a number to the ranks of the undecided. General dissatisfaction with incumbents is hurting Lungren, as did his vote for the $700 billion bailout package. But, Durston has yet to really define who he is and why we should vote for him, other than he is not Congo Dan. That's good enough for me and for Durston's base, but on Election Day it isn't likely to be enough to put him over the top. (Note the name Congo Dan - indicates his anti-Lungren Bias)

Of significance is the fact that the Durston poll was done earlier -- October 4 to 6. The Lungren polls were conducted Oct. 7 and Oct. 9, and were likely a knee jerk reaction in an attempt to discredit the Durston poll. Lungren only polled 300 in one and 400 in the other poll -- one reason for the high margins of error. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates asked questions of 500 people for the Durston campaign -- a much more reliable sampling.

Very significant is that all three polls have Congo Dan with under 50% -- 47% and 45% for the Lungren polls, and 33% in the Durston survey -- which is usually very bad news for an incumbent. At this point in the election cycle, an incumbent polling under 50% is in serious trouble.

So, let me bottom line it. Both Durston and Lungren, as well as their supporters, will get the message they want out of these polls -- good news about their respective campaigns. Reality isn't so easy to determine in polls, however; and neither campaign should rest easy, particularly Durston. Lungren is in trouble, but probably not as much as these surveys indicate. This one looks like it is still Lungren's to lose, but Durston could be the surprise candidate of 2008.

Blogger's Endnote - the author of this blog has the following in his bio --- "Randy ran for office once, in 1992, and has since been a Political Action Coordinator and served on the Legislative Committee of the California School Employees Association (CSEA). He is currently the Chair of the Amador County Democratic Central Committee and a member of the Democratic State Central Committee (DSCC)."