Zzzzzzzzz...... Tom's still losing 20%- 30% of republicans in the 4th because he's out of touch, hates vets, hates spending (but wants to incur $5 - $10 billion in new debt), and supports medical marijuana.
Now he's flip-flopping on earmarks, trying to gobble up donations from DC lobbyists and insiders, and "pretending" he cares about north state voters.
Soon he'll to get to vote on the peripheral canal (and just happen to send more nor cal water to his well-heeled donors from LA) and finally get back to work on the state's issues. Oh, one more fun tidbit - all that tax free money from the state for living 14 miles from the Capitol!
Try as you might AP, but this race is neck and neck. The presidential race won't matter here because the far right hates McCain and they're not coming back together - just like the Placer GOP...

My, My, My, Mr. Elmets, woke up a little testy today, did we?

Off to Park fantasy land... (que the music)

"Boy, this commentor keep bringing up issues I'd rather not talk about. I hope they don't bring up the fact that Tom claim's to be a conservative christian, but then cozy up so close to the gaming tribes I rub off some face paint!"

Back on planet earth....

At a boy, AP. Keep avoiding the issues...

I like the Rasmussen numbers!

November 2004: Democrats had a bare 1.6% lead in registration
November, 2006: Democrats advantage grew to 6.1%
August 2008: The advantage has increased to 7.6%

Sounds like good news for Obama and the Tuna to me! And if you read the Rasmussen numbers carefully you'll find that the recent fall off in Dem voter registrations (based on their survey) is not going to the GOP but into the Independent column. Methinks these are disaffected Clinton voters. Most of these will ultimately decide to vote for Obama.

Gotta wonder about Errin's CD4 numbers, though. Latest available (5/19/08) on the SoS page are:

Dem 31%
Rep 47%

Compare that to November 2006:

Dem 30.3%
Rep 47.9%

and November 2004:

Dem 30.6%
Rep 48.2%

...so it still looks good for the Tuna. Republican registration is slowly declining in CD4 and rapidly declining nationwide! Where Errin' gets his 4% "hemmorhage" number is anybody's guess. SoS is due to publish the 154 day registration statistics any day now so we'll see...

Also, note to Aaron: Read the aricle in Red County about McCain's abysmal situation. It's not the national polls that count...it's the polls by state and the electoral vote that matter. And Big John is trailing badly based on state polls.

Back to McClintain, er McCaintock...when you are so far out of touch that you identify immigration as the number one issue for CD4 you are REALLY out of touch. As Anon said, this baby is going to be close no matter what kind of spin Errin' and his friends try!

Bob

Bob - you need to go get your friend Neil to help you out.

Then Neil and Bob can get the rest of the Dem Central Committee together to make it a fair fight.

Bob - you are no ordinary average guy, either you are on the payroll, on the Dem Central Committee or you have as much free time as Lee Reed has.

If McCain was doing so poorly, why does Obambi have such a glass jaw? Why did the Obamessiah send his wife home? (you, know she of the racist tirade for a thesis when she was in college at taxpayer expense... don't worry, your lefty friends at Snopes confirmed it is true)

If McClintock was in a statistical dead heat, why is Colonel Tuna gyrating and teaching a spin class with every press release? I can see why Brown is as trim as he is even in his late 50's... man, he gets a lot of exercise!

Like I said Bob - you need to get a few more of your friends to join you and your prepared research. That way you can make it a fair fight when I am in between sales calls.

C'est La Vie - I will be here all cycle, with some fresh meat in the morning.

AP,
word to the wise; lay off the meat and mix in a spin class. It will help you in the long run.

Wait! Forget the spin class and go for the LONG run instead. Shoot, I'm just not on my game right now. The Brett Favre trade has me working up a new fantasy football draft pick list. Here's what you should do - Run from your apartment in Sacramento (you know, where you vote for Lungren but send letters to the editor as a resident of Roseville). That's the ticket!

As for Bob -word to the wise as well. Outside of energy, immigration IS A HUGE issues in CA and the 4th.

Anon,

Immigration is a HUGE issue in CD4? Please explain. I read local papers every day and live in the district unlike Aaron. Explain how immigration tops the list in CD4 over the economy, energy and everything else.

CD4's demographics, according to the census bureau, show that CD4's Hispanic population as a percentage of the total who live here is 9.8%, well below the national average of 14.8%. Our Caucasian population is well above the national average--85.5% versus 73%. But when compared to California as a whole CD4 looks lily white: 35.9% of California's overall population are Hispanic while only 59.8% are Caucasian.

Is immigration a real issue for CD4 or is it about stirring up fear and hate among voters who wouldn't recognize an MS-13 gang member if one fell on their head?

Are illegal aliens displacing jobs here in CD4?
Are illegal aliens a major factor in local crime?
Are illegal aliens taking more from government than they pay in taxes?
Are illegal aliens a net drain or a net bonus for our local economy?
Do illegal aliens add or detract to the cultural fabric of this district?

Show us your data on this--not anecdotes. Otherwise your statement is just evidence that you have bought into politically-motivated hysteria and hyperbole.

McClintock is in favor of reduced immigration, you know. Not just illegal immigration but legal, also...the kind if immigration American companies need to compete. McClintock has said he wants to arrest and deport illegal aliens (see last link, below). That could have devastating consequences for Placer County's economy and for thousands of families. He has no explanation for how he would deal with those consequences.

There are better solutions, and they do involve strong borders and equitable immigration policy. We don't have to be animals. McClintock's policies are draconian. He is inspired by people like Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilchrist and Chris Simcox.

Gilchrist, a founder of the Minutemen, was kicked out of the organization due to allegations of fraud. Former campaign staff members have connected Gilchrist to skinheads and neo-Nazi organizations.

Just read what Simcox, Gilchrist's former partner, has said in taped conversations submitted under oath in a court proceeding: splcenter.org/news/item.jsp?sid=27
This is one weird and paranoid dude.

Simcox and McClintock have worked closely together in not only this campaign but in past campaigns according to a number of news articles. For example: From the Grass Valley Union, 5/8/2008: "This is really becoming ground zero over the control of the Republican Party and, ultimately, the nation," McClintock said before joining Assembly candidate Dan Logue and Minuteman co-founder Chris Simcox at the Trolley Junction restaurant in Nevada City for a "Secure our Borders" rally.

Here's a photo of Chris Simcox before getting "cleaned up" to interact with state GOP heavies: dneiwert.blogspot.com/uploaded_images/Chris%20Simcox%202-794947.jpg

Here's the "cleaned up" version of Chris Simcox: cache.viewimages.com/xc/72345176.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF193875DCB1DD8387ABB610ECE38F793D3FDA40A659CEC4C8CB6

Are these the kind of guys you want your congressman to be connected to? Is this issue really what you want your congressman putting first on his priority list over education, the economy, foreign policy, energy and everything else? You said yourself: "Outside of energy, immigration IS A HUGE issues [sic] in CA and the 4th". McClintock puts it above energy. In fact, energy is last on McClintock's list of his top five priorities:
auburnjournal.com/detail/85525.html?content_source=&category_id=11&search_filter=&list_type=&order_by=&order_sort=&content_class=1&sub_type=&town_id=6

I don't condone illegal immigration. I just think there are better ways to deal with it than McClintock's inhumane prescription and there are other issues that are far more important to CD4 voters. However, when you are starved of good ideas I guess running a campaign based on fear and hate will fill the void. Do you want to be connected with such a campaign?

Thanks,

Bob

You should draft Aaron Rodgers - Farve is older than I am for Pete's Sake!

Your own polling should show the importance of immigration. If you actually live in the district, you'd understand the people you're dealing with.

Oh Aaron, you crack me up. You're so bitter and desperate. Gonna be fun when you're carpet bagger buddy loses in November. Funny how you claim the Republican Party here is still in such good shape, but had to find a candidate from 400 miles away to run for Congress. AHAHAHAHAHAHA, so sad!

Anon,

I live in the district (and have for thirteen years) but since I am an individual not affiliated with a campaign I don't have polling data on immigration for CD4 available that is not in the public domain. Do you?

But my questions still stand. Do you have any answers to them? What I can see from living in the district and reading the papers daily immigration is not a big issue here. I think it is a manufactured issue. There's a perception of a problem fueled by fear-based political campaigns, anecdotal (and often untrue) internet horror stories and talk radio personalities (who have a vested interest in stirring people up) that doesn't have a strong basis in reality in our area. I think to some degree there may be a racial or bigotry component behind these perceptions, or at least a fear of people who are different and how they may change the culture. Certainly Republicans are worried that if Hispanic illegal aliens and Hispanic resident legal aliens eventually gain citizenship then the Hispanic voting bloc will increase and this will negatively affect Republican political power since 70% of U.S. Hispanics register as Democrats. So it's no surprise that programs that attack illegal aliens and which reduce legal Hispanic immigration are popular with conservatives.

I have yet to meet anybody who can say with certainty that illegal aliens living in CD4 are creating a problem for them personally because of their illegal status. Instead I have been in conversations with people who say things like "My taxes are higher because these people are going to our schools and using public health care and not paying for them!" But when I ask them if they know that almost all illegal aliens do pay taxes and pay into social security and medicare (with no hope of ever collecting a dime from these systems) they are surprised. Somehow the stuff they were getting on the internet and from talk radio wasn't telling them the whole story. They are also unaware of the fact that illegal aliens are actually a net positive contributor to the economic health of the United States due to their hard work ethic, the taxes they pay and the fact that they cause less crime, don't sue and generally try to live their lives in peace. That's right: Without the illegal aliens who currently live in the United States our GDP would be lower and our federal and state budget deficits would be higher than they are today.

Again, I am not condoning illegal immigration. If we opened the borders and took no steps to restrict illegal immigration our country would be in far worse shape because people would FLOOD here from all points of the compass. We need action to protect our borders and to ensure that illegal aliens who are already here become part of society in a way that recognizes that they jumped ahead of people who are following the legal process to be here. There should be financial penalties. Criminal illegal aliens should be deported unless their only crimes are immigration related. There needs to be a guest worker program with teeth. Employers should be fined if they hire people who aren't in the transition program or who don't meet eligibility requirements.

But what Tom wants to do is crazy. It can't work. It's just red meat for people who have allowed themselves to be talked into their perception that this is a significant problem in our area. He's just trying to scare you into voting for him.

Bob

Going back to the original post in this string, the rasmussen Poll.

This should put it into perspective:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008080701

Quote (excerpt from article at the link above)
NINETY DAYS AND COUNTING:
The Outlook for the 2008 Presidential Election in Early August

By Alan I. Abramowitz
Guest Columnist

Conclusion: The State of the Race with Less than 90 Days Left

Despite the evidence of a residual effect of the divisive Democratic nomination contest and resistance to Barack Obama by some white voters in the southern and border states, the overall impression that emerges from this analysis of the 2008 polling data is that Obama is entering the final three months of the campaign with a modest but significant lead over John McCain. He is losing the white vote by a smaller margin than any Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and he is doing better than John Kerry in almost every demographic group, and substantially better among younger voters and Hispanics.

Both the Gallup national tracking poll and recent state polls show Obama leading McCain by a wide margin in the blue states, maintaining a modest lead in the purple states, and narrowing the Republican advantage in the red states. With his own electoral base secure, Obama can afford to shift campaign resources into a number of once solidly Republican states that now appear to be in play such as Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. At a minimum this will force the McCain campaign to devote scarce resources to these states---resources that might otherwise be used in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Less than three months from Election Day, the 2008 presidential race appears to be Barack Obama's to lose.
Unquote

Note: From the same article I just referred to above there is some interesting information for California.

Kerry beat Bush in California by about 11 percentage points in 2004

Obama currently leads McCain in a composite of polls in California by about 17 percentage points.

This is not good for the GOP in California.

Bob - I am specifically talking about CA-04.

You might only be looking at Placer County, unless your friends at Charlie's office have some super-secret numbers they are giving you that the rest of us don't have.

Be sure to run them by snopes.com first.

I am glad you and those of you on the left think illegal immigration is no big deal. I guess it really isn't since the left wants to put them on welfare and register them to vote.

"But when I ask them if they know that almost all illegal aliens do pay taxes and pay into social security and medicare (with no hope of ever collecting a dime from these systems) they are surprised."

Bob - you gleefully dance whenever I make an erroneous statement - now please retract the above. Illegal aliens do collect Social Security in many cases, they get medi-cal and medicaid, too in certain circumstances.

Many illegal aliens work for cash under the table - I see it all the time as I am constantly arguing with clients over that practice and the resultant exposure to their businesses. If you work for cash under the table, you aren't paying taxes either.

How far are you willing to go to make points Bob? At least I was quoting others when I was in error - these are your own!

Sorry Charlie - try making that argument to the voters and watch Tom's margin grow into the 20% range.

Aaron,

How many citizens have you known who have worked under the table? I have known a lot. This is not a problem unique to illegal immigrants. It is an employer--not an employee--problem. Employers who hire people and who don't pay their share of payroll taxes are creating this problem, not illegal aliens. That's a problem that won't be solved if every single illegal alien is deported.

Once again you cannot collect social security using a fictional SS number and you can't get a real SS # unless you are legal or use one from someone who is dead. I know from dealing with my mother's death that as soon as I field for her last social security payment her number was inactivated. So the instances where a legal SS # is used by someone else and they can collect payments using it are very, very rare.

Here's how illegal aliens can get something that looks like a social security number (but isn't) yet is a legal IRS #:
http://fredfryinternational.blogspot.com/2007/09/how-illegal-aliens-get-social-security.html

But they can also latch on to a legal number (usually through random chance when a fake number happens to match a real one) and that can cause problems for people. But if you read the whole article at this link which talks about these problems it also describes how illegal aliens pay into the system and don't get anything out of it.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/09/04/news/id.php

Once again, you can either live in a fantasy world where you dream that all illegal aliens are deported--case closed!--or you live in reality and figure out how to get these people out from the twilight zone so that they don't need to get fake numbers. As I said in my post yesterday that process should not be easy or quick but without it this problem will just go on and on and on.

I repeat, Tom's position on immigration is about fear and hate. If he gets his way the economy will be disrupted and millions of hard-working families will have their lives turned upside down. There are better solutions.

Bob

Errin',

I'm still looking for your data that supports this statement from your original post:

"In the 4th CD, the Democrats have hemorrhaged 4% registration. This is amazing considering that Arnold bankrupt the California Republican Party getting his bonds passed in 2006."

Thanks,

Bob