McClintock Wins by Comfortable Margin, Logue Leading, Kranz Headed to Run Off against Montgomery
Posted by: Jeff Flint | 06/03/2008 11:05 PM
(Editor's Note: Sorry for no earlier postings...I assumed Aaron or someone else would be blogging results. My son had his last regular season baseball game this evening, and then I took the boys out for pizza. If you are counting, the Lincoln Rangers finished the season 17 wins and 1 loss, and are headed to the playoffs!)
In the three Placer County races of interest that most RCP readers were following, there are not huge surprises in any of the results.
Tom McClintock is winning the 4th Congressional District GOP Primary by a comfortable 15% lead, 53%, to 38% for Doug Ose. McClintock will face Democrat nominee Charlie Brown in what should be a spirited election fight, and which McClintock cannot take for granted (and I don't think he will). But Charlie Brown polls not withstanding, McClintock should be favored to win in the fall.
Dan Logue is leading a closer 3rd Assembly District race, but with over 58% of the precincts reporting, Logue's 9 point lead should hold up and he will be a virtual shoo-in for election this fall.
In the 5th Supervisorial District, Bruce Kranz will indeed be headed to a run-off against Jennifer Montgomery as most RCP readers predicted, but it is perhaps a small surprise the Kranz is running second. With 85% of precincts reporting, Montgomery leads Kranz, 40% to 38%, with 22% for Bob Houston. With 60% of voters opposing Kranz' re-election, things don't look good for Kranz.
In the three Placer County races of interest that most RCP readers were following, there are not huge surprises in any of the results.
Tom McClintock is winning the 4th Congressional District GOP Primary by a comfortable 15% lead, 53%, to 38% for Doug Ose. McClintock will face Democrat nominee Charlie Brown in what should be a spirited election fight, and which McClintock cannot take for granted (and I don't think he will). But Charlie Brown polls not withstanding, McClintock should be favored to win in the fall.
Dan Logue is leading a closer 3rd Assembly District race, but with over 58% of the precincts reporting, Logue's 9 point lead should hold up and he will be a virtual shoo-in for election this fall.
In the 5th Supervisorial District, Bruce Kranz will indeed be headed to a run-off against Jennifer Montgomery as most RCP readers predicted, but it is perhaps a small surprise the Kranz is running second. With 85% of precincts reporting, Montgomery leads Kranz, 40% to 38%, with 22% for Bob Houston. With 60% of voters opposing Kranz' re-election, things don't look good for Kranz.
This event looks similar to one held for Big Skip Hazzy during his run against Gaines for the...
Since Kranz backed Ose over McClintock, voters won't forget that when they cast their ballots and it showed tonight. If Kranz wouldn't have caved to peer pressure and merely supported McClintock, he would have finished first in his race. Whoever is advising him should be sent to the unemployment line tomorrow morning.
PJB jr said "Whoever is advising Bruce Kranz should be sent to the unemployment line tomorrow morning." That strikes me as a bit unfair. As far as I know, ALL of the people advising Bruce Kranz were McClintock supporters who urged Kranz to endorse McClintock, too. Kranz has no one to blame but himself for the damage inflicted by his shameful Ose endorsement.
Fortunately, Bruce Kranz has an excellent record as a county supervisor, as a public servant, as a conservative activist, and as a Republican leader. It will be easy for him to convince Placer County voters in November that he fits the district perfectly.
Tom:
Historically, incumbents in these non-partisan, run-off if no one gets 50%, type of races who not only fail to win outright but fail to finish first are in trouble. I think Bruce is in serious trouble.
That being said, one can certainly make the case the Kranz will have a good shot at most of the Houston voters. And of course, the electorate in November will be vastly different from the one that voted in yesterday's election.
I think the race is a toss-up, and Kranz has some work to do.
Jeff