Breaking News: McClintock Backers to Release Poll Showing He Would Dominate GOP Primary for 4th CD
Posted by: Jeff Flint | 02/13/2008 12:33 PM
A reliable source informs me that backers of the growing movement to draft Tom McClintock into the 4th CD GOP primary have conducted a poll showing that Tom would dominate the primary field.
I am told the poll showed a three way primary of McClintock, Ose, and Oller would fall as follows:
Clearly, this poll is intended by McClintock backers to entice him into the race. My source says that the folks who did the poll conducted it without Tom's knowledge. That may or may not be the case. It's either a well-orchestrated move, or a genuine attempt to "Draft" him into the race, but there is no doubt he would be a formidable, perhaps field-clearing candidate, if he indeed jumped in.
The release of this poll is supposedly imminent, so we will know more soon.
[UPDATE - 1:55 PM]
The poll is out. You can download it here and here.
I am told the poll showed a three way primary of McClintock, Ose, and Oller would fall as follows:
McClintock - 44As most insiders know, while Tom represents Ventura County, he maintains a residence here in Northern California and his family spends quite a bit of time here. Furthermore, because of his statewide campaigns and leadership on a number of issues, McClintock has true, statewide name ID. I would venture that Tom McClintock would poll well in a GOP primary in virtually every District in the state.
Ose - 11
Oller - 6
Clearly, this poll is intended by McClintock backers to entice him into the race. My source says that the folks who did the poll conducted it without Tom's knowledge. That may or may not be the case. It's either a well-orchestrated move, or a genuine attempt to "Draft" him into the race, but there is no doubt he would be a formidable, perhaps field-clearing candidate, if he indeed jumped in.
The release of this poll is supposedly imminent, so we will know more soon.
[UPDATE - 1:55 PM]
The poll is out. You can download it here and here.
CATEGORY:
4th Congressional District Race, FEATURE
I must be striking a nerve, Aaron. Yes, I must be deaf and blind. I have not seen...
The big winner if McClintock acutally files would be Ose. There is no way a primary with three conservatives and one liberal yields anything but the liberal.
It does not suprise me that one of your Sacramento Capitol lobbyist / consultant friends would give you this tip, Jeff... we have both been hearing grumbles of this for at least a week.
Aaron:
When in doubt, I can always count on you to attack "consultants, lobbyists, and the Capitol Crowd."
For the record, it was not really any of those.
I have utmost respect for Tom as a conservative leader, but my friend in this race is Rico Oller.
My political judgment is that if Tom gets in, Rico and Doug both ought to find something else to do with their time. Ose would not have a snowball's chance against Tom McClintock in a GOP primary in the 4th District.
Oller will suspend his campaign for Tom. Major development.
The most interesting thing to me in this poll is that in two months, Eric Egland has dropped from 3 percent of the vote to 0 percent of the vote. I guess all that campaigning in Africa is paying off.
Well, I'm not dropping out if Tom is in. I have to respect his enormous stature in the state and the party, but I do disagree with him on a number of issues I find extremely important, and- in the case he's in- I will very clearly articulate those differences. Remember, 2008 is a 'Throw the Bums Out' election for the ages, and experience and stature are not something to count on over the coming season in wooing voters.
I Believe in Miracles.
I dont claim to be one. But since the guy isnt even here to defend himself...
Bill: last i checked, 44 + 11 + 6 = 61
It's impossible to say what exactly the poll said without seeing it. I'm not disputing your overall point, but using this as an opportunity to take a cheap shot at the guy for taking a few weeks to do some military service is just wrong.
PS
I Believe in Designated Drivers.
mathmasmartass - there were 38% undecided.
This means that with rounding error all 100% are accounted for.
mcclintockforcongress.com appears to have been registered overnight
Jeff:
I think the reason Mr. Park laments "consultants, lobbyists and the Capital Crowd" is that he would desperately like to be one, but lacking the skill, he is relegated to taking their money and doing their dirty work.
Aaron:
I'll believe that 38% are undecided when i see the poll. If that's the case, i suspect Egland's name was not included (which is reasonable). I also suspect that Ted T's name was not on it either (sorry #1 fan Aaron). Anyone who knows anything about polling will tell you that you can put a fictional name on the list and it will get 2-3% because there are a lot of uninformed people. Point being, Yes, Egland is basically out. No, he is not at "0%" because no one ever is.
Again, i just don't see why you people go out of your way to kick the guy when it's time to move on. Yes, he took on Doolittle. That's hardly something to keep holding against him. If anything, YOU should be embarrassed about how you handled the past year. Seriously, have a little self respect.
In full disclosure, I support McClintock getting in. I don't think i will vote unless he does. So i'm not defending the other guy for any other reason than this party will look like piece of crap if we let you get away with making a "campaigning in Africa" attack on a guy who is overseas serving his country and has the audacity to run for office. Anyhow...
GO TOM!
Anon Coward -
The poll included Egland. You didn't read it before throwing another barb. It takes no courage, temerity or integrity to comment anonymously.
The poll did not include Terbolizard - none that have been done have included him. They apparently don't think he is going to file - Ted has told me he is.
It is also obvious that you don't pay close enough attention to this blog - note that I have not posted a thing regarding Eric Ose/Kerry/ no middle name Egland on this blog in a month other than comments.
Again - this is my primary issue with the cowardice of Anon Commenters - there is no accountability for what guys like you write.
Unless of course you just revealed your identity to me in what you just wrote.
BTW - I am still wondering where the heck all those payoffs have gone? Do you have canceled checks? I certainly would appreciate it if...
"I think the reason Mr. Park laments "consultants, lobbyists and the Capital Crowd" is that he would desperately like to be one, but lacking the skill, he is relegated to taking their money and doing their dirty work."
... those dammed consultants would start writing those checks out to me!
There is NO WAY Rico would only get 6% of the vote. That's not even a good lie. Rico is very popular in this district and not only will he get the NRA endorsement he's already got the nod from the Gun Owners of America.