Recently, the Associate Press mentioned a poll that indicated that John Doolittle was doing much better than most people believed.

I don�t like to comment on polls in general, since I think that many of them are biased to achieve a particular result. I also tend to avoid discussing internal campaign issues in public, since I think that helps the Democrats. However, this poll really intrigued me because it confirmed what I have said all along: Congressman Doolittle is very likely to win re-election and he deserves the opportunity to do so.

Here are the key points about the poll that may interest you as much as they interested me:

1. The poll was conducted on behalf of the National Republican Congressional Committee by a reputable Republican polling firm that has been doing polling for Republican candidates and the NRCC for many years. This private poll was conducted in the last week of October, after months of vicious attacks against John Doolittle.

2. The poll shows that John Doolittle will easily defeat any and all primary opponents. The vicious attacks and false allegations against him have failed and he has a lock on the Republican nomination. The Associate Press leaked this information in its article, but did not give any specific details. Here are the facts: Doolittle not only wins the Republican primary election, but he would completely destroy anyone who foolishly ran against him. He would defeat Eric Egland by nearly 50 points and Ted Gaines by 30 points. Not one of the candidates who have been mentioned as possibly challenging Doolittle would even come close to being able to defeat him in the Republican primary next June. I believe that my friend Ted Gaines, who has been an excellent Assemblyman, knows the same thing which is why he is not officially throwing his hat in the ring and he is instead telling people that he is waiting to see what Doolittle will do. I don�t know Eric Egland as well, but I suspect that his political inexperience may have kept him from conducting his own polling, or, if he did, from understanding what numbers like this mean. The primary election is six months away, of course, but a poll like this means that none of the challengers will be able to raise enough money to even compete with our loyal incumbent. The primary race is all but over at this point, even if some people do not yet realize it.

3. Congressman Doolittle will beat Charlie Brown. The poll shows that he is in a statistical dead heat with Brown at this point. Before the 2006 election, Congressman Doolittle�s poll numbers were about the same as they are now. As everyone knows, 2006 was a terrible year for Republicans and Congressman Doolittle still won. I think 2008 will be a better year for Republicans across the country -- and in Placer County, so that will help a great deal. Our presidential nominee will present a very stark contrast to Hillary Clinton, which will boost Republican turnout, enthusiasm, and party loyalty for the whole Republican ticket. In a district like the Fourth Congressional District, a loyal, enthusiastic, and united Republican base will overwhelm the local Democrats and assorted kooks who are backing Charlie Brown. In any plausible scenario, including a scenario where turnout is as bad as it was in 2006, Congressman Doolittle will still win re-election.

4. No other Republican candidate has the name identification to beat Charlie Brown. Brown�s name ID is close to 90 percent. Doolittle�s is close to 100. No one else comes even close. I was surprised to see that fewer than 50 percent of the people polled have ever heard of Assemblyman Ted Gaines. Of those, more than half had no opinion of him! Eric Egland is even worse. Over 90 percent of the electorate have never heard of Eric Egland or have no opinion of him! I keep hearing that �anyone who had an R after his name� other than Congressman Doolittle will easily beat Charlie Brown. That is clearly not the case. In fact, if the election were held today, Doolittle would do better than any other Republican candidate! Republicans would have to spend millions of dollars to raise the name ID of another Republican candidate to be able to compete with Charlie Brown. I think we could do it, but what would we gain?

5. Don�t put all your eggs in the Eric Egland Basket! I have been amazed at some of the people who have jumped forward to support Eric Egland, including a few friends of mine like Ken Campbell and Amy Dunn. These people know that Eric Egland only recently registered as a Republican, he has never held elected office or even served on the County Central Committee, and he is almost completely unknown in the district. Eric may be a nice guy, but I have never understood why some people placed him on the �short list� to replace Congressman Doolittle. He doesn�t seem to have a prayer of winning and it is impossible to believe that he is the most qualified person out of the 193,597 registered Republicans in the Fourth Congressional District. The results of the poll support my case. If the election were to be held today, Eric Egland would be blown out by Congressman Doolittle by a landslide. What is worse, he would be completely embarrassed by Mike Holmes as well. In fact, only 4% percent the Republicans polled said they would vote for Egland, while 16% said they would vote for Mike Holmes! With all due respect to Eric and his lonely handful of supporters, maybe he should target a seat on the Roseville City Council or the maybe the Mosquito and Vector Control Board before jumping into the Congressional race.

6. John Doolittle is going to run. I have heard the rumor that this poll was conducted to convince John Doolittle not to run. I have not been able to confirm that rumor, but ultimately, it does not matter. It is clear that these poll results will strengthen his resolve to run and win. John Doolittle is not just a loyal conservative leader in Congress; he is a battle-hardened, combat-ready campaigner who knows the district and who would be out of his mind to step aside in favor of any of the Republican candidates who have set their sights on this race.

7. I know all the campaigns will put their own spin on this poll and I don�t blame them. I was a political science major at U.C. Berkeley, so I enjoy attacking polling methodologies as much as anyone. And we all agree that the only poll that matters is the one they take on election day. Still, I think it is clear that John Doolittle will win a contested Republican primary election. He will likely win the general election, too, but it will be a tough race if he has to continue fighting fellow Republicans at the same time that he is fighting Charlie Brown (a tax-loving, liberal wacko who will vote with Nancy Pelosi 100% of the time).

We need to unite behind John Doolittle right now and focus our attacks on Charlie Brown.

Tom Hudson, Chairman, Placer County Republican Party