So, we've been at this for a couple months now, and most of the political news in Placer County has been about the 4th Congressional District Race.  We thought, for today's Sunday Commentary, we'd visit the state of the race and offer our analysis of each of the candidates' campaigns and of the race overall:

John Doolittle - We have to start our analysis with the incumbent.  Unfortunately for Congressman Doolittle, in our estimation, nothing has changed from our initial analysis, that he cannot win re-election next year.  Doolittle's advocates and loyalists argue, alternatively, that he is being lynched by the media/liberals; and that there is nothing new since he won re-election, albeit narrowly, last year.  But their analysis is internally contradictory.  In fact, if there was nothing new, what would the media and liberals be "lynching" him with?  And of course, we know that there is something new.  Since barely winning re-election in 2006, Doolittle's house has been raided by the FBI, and his staff has all been subpoenaed and questioned by the grand jury.  Does any of this mean he is guilty of any crime.  Of course not.  But he is not being tried in the courts of law, as far as re-election is concerned.  He is being tried in the court of public opinion, and he is losing badly.  There is also no reason to think, as best as we can tell right now, that 2008 will be a better year for Republicans in the global sense than 2006.  As it stands today, it looks worse.  Doolittle argues that conservative turnout was suppressed in 2006, but that legions of Republicans will show up to oppose Hillary Clinton in 2008.  So essentially, Doolittle bases his hope for re-election on dislike for Hillary Clinton.  Pretty sad for a Republican running in the most Republican district in California.  Add to that the fact the the Democrats, unlike 2006, take Charlie Brown's campaign completely seriously, and we inevitably conclude that John Doolittle will not be our Congressman after 2008. 

However, none of this means he won't be the GOP nominee.  One of the Republican challengers needs to go out an win the nomination, and so far, we don't see that happening yet.  With the anti-Doolittle vote split up 3 or 4 ways, and none of the other GOP candidates distinguishing themselves, JTD is still the odds on favorite to win the primary.

Ted Gaines - Assemblyman Ted Gaines announced an "exploratory committee" in late August.  While there is legally no difference, as far as the FEC is concerned, between an "exploratory" committee and a real committee.  The news coverage of Gaines' entry in the race portrayed Gaines as a serious threat to Doolittle in the primary, more so that other candidates in the race. And he may still be a threat, so in our opinion, so far, Gaines seems mostly to be surprised by the strong push back he has gotten from Doolittle loyalists.  And as such, Gaines seems stuck between his Assembly and Congressional efforts.  I don't know this, but I sense that Gaines thought merely announcing for the seat would bring forth an outpouring of support from people grateful that he was saving the district from Doolittle's certain defeat.  But incumbents rarely give up easy.  Gaines would do well to heed the advise of Spanish explorer and conquistador, Hernando Cortes, who, upon landing on the Yucatan Peninsula, burned his ships, leaving him no choice but to go forward and conquer the Aztec Empire, which he went out and did.  As far as I know, Ted Gaines has not had any congressional fundraisers since announcing his campaign.  Meanwhile, candidates are circling his Assembly seat, and at some point, one of them will start to like the sound of "Assemblyman" in front of their name, and commit to the race regardless of what Gaines does.  My advice to Ted Gaines, decide soon if you want to run for Congress or Assembly, commit to that race, burn your ships, and go forth and conquer.  Otherwise, gracefully exit the campaign, run for re-election, and plan a campaign against Congressman Charlie Brown in 2010.

Eric Egland - I have exchanged a couple voice mails and emails with Eric Egland, but I don't know him well.  I honor his service in the Air Force and his work defending the war effort and supporting the troops and their families.  Of all the candidates, he seems to agree with me the most that winning the war against Islamic Fundamentalism is the most important issue out there. However, it is not the only issue.  My advice to Eric Egland - broaden your issue portfolio and rationale for your candidacy.  Come up with a tax plan, or a health care plan, or something else.  Tell us what other issues motivate you.  Finally, the $77,000 you raised last quarter is not bad, but you need a lot more.  You have essentially zero name ID, so you will have to spend a lot to get people to know you.

Mike Holmes - Mike Holmes got 33% of the vote against John Doolittle in the 2006 GOP primary.  Unfortunately for Mike, that 33% was probably mostly anti-Doolittle votes rather than pro-Holmes votes.  He raised essentially no money, he campaigns actively as a moderate in a conservative district, and with other candidates in the race, the "anybody but Doolittle" vote will be split up.  I am not sure Holmes could beat Doolittle in a primary head-to-head...with other candidates in the race, I think Holmes is an obvious also ran.

Ted Terbolizard - Huh?  Actually, if you go to his website, you will see he is a Ron Paul republican.  Still...huh?

Charlie Brown  - Paradoxically enough, Charlie Brown is both the candidate most likely to be our next Congressman, and the most irrelevant candidate at the same time.  How can this be?  Because Charlie Brown has no control over his own destiny.  If John Doolittle wins the Republican Primary, then Charlie Brown will be our Congressman.  If John Doolittle is not the GOP nominee, then Charlie Brown loses.  And since we rate Doolittle as most likely to win the GOP primary right now, it looks like Brown's race to lose.  But if one of the other GOP candidates finally catches fire, or if John Doolittle finally decides the best thing he can do for his constituents and his party is to step aside, then Brown loses.  Given the energy in his campaign, he'll likely give the GOP nominee a healthy run either way, but against anyone but Doolittle, the district's overwhelmingly GOP advantage will be too much for Brown to overcome.

So...are we willing to put odds out there?  Sure why not.  Here ois my rough guess of the likelihood of who will be Congressman from the 4th District of California after the 2008 elections:

50% - Charlie Brown
30% - Ted Gaines
10% - Erik Egland
  5% - Someone else
  4% - Mike Holmes
  1% - John Doolittle (miracles happen)

Comments anyone?