I was going to do my first Sunday commentary on the issue of earmarks or �pork,� but today�s Sacramento Bee article on the 4th Congressional District race and whether or not Congressman John Doolittle should step aside has forced me to change my plans.

In that article, I am quoted as calling on party leaders to convince the Congressman that he should not run for re-election next year, and that the conversation should happen sooner rather than later:

"Eventually, the party leadership is going to have a serious conversation with him," Flint said. "Those things tend to work better sooner than later. If you wait too long, it just taints the whole district. You end up losing the district even if the troubled incumbent is not the nominee anymore."

The article sets up State Senator Dave Cox as answering me:

"This is still America, and a person is innocent until proven guilty," said state Sen. Dave Cox of Fair Oaks. "It's easy to pile on. From my vantage point, I'm supporting John Doolittle because John Doolittle has made a contribution to this region and to this district."

I like Dave Cox and respect his opinion, but I while I certainly agree that no one should go to jail or prison before being convicted, and indeed have personal experience on this very matter, the issue before John Doolittle is not whether he should be convicted, but whether it is better for his District and his Party that he step aside.

In the Bee article, the Congressman is referenced as stating that his month of meetings during the August congressional recess in the district has convinced him his support is as strong as ever.  With all due respect, his support is not that strong.  The 4th Congressional District is the most GOP-safe district, on paper, in the state.  Yet Congressman Doolittle was held under 50% last year, and won by less than 4%.  And that was before the FBI raided his house this year.

Now, John Doolittle has almost no money in the bank, and at least 3 primary challengers, while Charlie Brown, the 2006 Democrat nominee, is poised to officially announce again with over $250,000 in the bank and a united party behind him.

Although a lot could change between now and November 2008, every indication today is that 2008 will be a tougher year for the GOP, generically, than 2006 was.  I hope that changes, but it may not. 

And indeed, it is an open rumor among those watching this race that there are at least three polls showing Doolittle trailing Brown in a rematch by 20 points.  If the Congressman�s campaign had a poll disputing that, I suspect they would have released it by now; or at least made Oklahoma Congressman and NRCC Chairman Tom Cole aware of it.  Instead, Cole confirmed that national GOP leaders are quite concerned about the race as well.

I don�t dispute John Doolittle�s prior service to the district and the Republican Party.  That is not the issue here.  In fact, if John Doolittle believes that the 4th District would be poorly served by a liberal Democrat like Charlie Brown, then the best service he could give to the District and the Party now would be to step aside.