Today and Friday we are going to explore an election day mystery:  who was behind an odd and apparently counter-productive hit mailer.  I don't have the answer, but the rumors are juicy.  So put on your Sherlock Holmes tweed hat, grab your magnifying glass, and help me figure out "whodunit."

Last Election Day Adam Probolsky sent out a hit mailer that generated attention in Irvine political circles because the funding source was, um, unclear.  Many folks believe that the mailer is the reason why Council member Stephen Choi removed Adam from  the Irvine Planning Commission. Indeed, Jubal made a post here on OC blog blasting away at Choi for Adam's removal. That post, in turn, led to a Irvine World News/ OC Register article in which  both Stephen and Adam denied that Adam's removal was a result of the hit mailer.

Today's post will review the facts as best as I have been able to gather them.  Next post, we'll move onto the fun stuff: the rumors and speculations about whodunit -- who actually paid for the mailer.

First, the facts of the case

1. The Irvine Republican Slate (Team Irvine) and Margie Wakeham had an entente.  Margie ran a strictly positive campaign, while Team Irvine focused on attacking Larry Agran's slate. The two campaigns ignored each other as far as their messaging was concerned.  

2.  A  "bog-standard, if a bit amateurish"  hit mailer against Margie appeared in Irvine mailboxes the afternoon before the election. Team Irvine publicly and vigorously dis-avowed the mailer the day it came out. Indeed, Team Irvine candidate Pat Rodgers posted a disclaimer here on OC Blog.  

3.  City of Irvine filings show that the mailer cost $14,000 and was paid for by "Republican Party of Orange County (State Acct.)"

4.  Adam Probolsky subsequently owned up to being the consultant for the mailer.  To Adam's credit, his timing of the mailing was perfect, leaving the targets no time to respond.

5.  Adam was informed on or about November 16th that Stephen Choi no longer wanted Adam on the Irvine Planning Commission.  At the time, witnesses described Adam as upset.   I was never given a reason for Adam's dismissal, but everyone I talked to assumed it was due to the hit mailer.

6.  Jubal caught wind of Adam's dismissal and posted here on OC Blog,  blasting Stephen Choi for the decision.  A vigorous discussion ensued in the comments

7.  The Irvine World News/ OC Register picked up the story from OC Blog , adding a quote  from Stephen Choi:  "It is not directly related to his political activities, even though that was not well-received by the friends surrounding me."

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So far, pretty dry stuff.  One forgettable hit mailer and some disorganized local Republicans.  But who kicked in the $14,000?  Somebody had to put the money into the OC GOP account.  Somebody had to convince Scott Baugh this was a good idea.  Who fits the bloody glove?

There is more to the story, of course.  There is "what everybody knows, " but no-one is willing to state for attribution.  So below I'll drop more clues, but they may be red herrings. The best whodunits always have false leads.


1.  The  OC GOP did not financially support Team Irvine this year.  Team Irvine raised approximately $110,000, all on their own.  That's a pretty impressive number by past years' standards, but nowhere near enough to fight an Agran slate that raised at least $750,000.

2.  Team Irvine and Adam did not see eye-to-eye on strategy.  For example, Adam wanted to commission a poll that Team Irvine did not feel was a good use of scarce resources.  Apparently, Adam was more concerned about Margie than Team Irvine was.

3.  The mailer was a surprise to Team Irvine.  A Team Irvine volunteer contacted me the day after the hit (I had publicly endorsed Margie at that point) to assure me that they weren't behind the mailer.  Supposedly, Christina Shea phoned Margie Wakeham personally to convey the same message.

4. Team Irvine was miffed.  After Scott Baugh had told the Team there wasn't any money for local races, a mailer costing one-eighth of their entire budget appears, unannounced.  Moreover, it undermined Team Irvine's strategy, as they would preferred to have used the money - and the perfect timing -- for a hit mailer against Larry Agran.

5.  When initially confronted about the mailer, Adam protested "Scott Baugh approved."

6.  Scott Baugh was definitely involved ... somehow. Presumably this was hashed out at a key private meeting that happened at Scott's office on Friday, Nov 21. Does anybody know what happened at that meeting?

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So, let's review the clues.  As good detectives, we must avoid getting caught up in the personalities and focus on Motive, Method, and Outcome.

Motive:  Who would want to sow dissension in Republican ranks?  Who had been in Irvine politics long enough to be worried about woman who had not run for office in almost a decade? Who had the most to lose from a successful Wakeham campaign?

Method: Who had so much money that they could commit (at least) $14,000 to an ancillary effort? Who has the organization and contacts to hide the evidence?

Outcome:  Who would benefit from local Republicans being seen as attacking a generally positive public figure?  Who would be most interested in seeing Margie Wakeham kept off the city council?  Where have we seen these fingerprints before?

to be continued....