We started our series with last week's post detailing how Larry Agran's "vision" and mis-management has led to $60 million dollars being spent on the Irvine Great Park with little to show for it.  This week, we'll examine another way that Larry Agran has wasted other other peoples' money: the nearly-riderless iShuttle that is costing Irvine taxpayers over $15 per ride.

New transit projects normally go through a lengthy evaluation process to ensure scarce transit dollars are spent where they will do the most good.  Not the iShuttle.  Larry and his allies envisioned a need and forced the project through the city council.  No needs assessment was performed, so we can't assess if the iShuttle actually fulfills any needs. Here's what we do know :

1.  The iShuttle was budgeted in 2007 (pdf)  to have a capital cost of  $4.3 million dollars and an annual operating budget of $2.25 million -- enough money to have completely prevented  layoffs in Irvine's schools this year and next. 

2.  The iShuttle is seeing a declining ridership from a paltry peak of 12,524 riders in July.

3.  Weekend ridership has been so low that weekend service has already been canceled.

And it gets worse after the fold....
Gary Hewitt, City of Irvine public servant par excellence, has provided most of the numbers used below.

The iShuttle ridership peaked at 12,524 riders in July.  It dipped 3.5% dip to 12,089 in August. September 1-15th saw 5,351 riders, so we estimate  rougly 10,700 for the whole month, another 11% drop.  Ridership will presumably decline even further when the iShuttle starts charging a fare.

If ridership can be converted into fare-paying passengers -- an untested proposition -- the resulting fares will not come close to covering the costs. Gary Hewitt reports that fare revenue for 2009 is projected to be $132,000.  As-yet-unimplemented advertising may provide an additional $60,000 revenue. Yet, the pro-forma (titled "IBC Shuttle: Operating Capital Plan") projects next year's operating expenses to be $2.4MM.  That leaves Irvine taxpayers carrying 92% of the operating costs of the shuttle, plus all capital costs.

Looking at it another way, $2.4MM divided by 144,000 riders (a generous 12,000 riders per month, times 12 months per year) works out to almost $17 per ride.  It'd be cheaper to call a cab!

Why do we have this expensive and under-utilized shuttle?  Larry Agran envisioned it, and pushed it through the city council.  Stephen Choi and Christine Shea have opposed the iShuttle, while Larry Agran says "I've seen those buses in the morning and afternoon with plenty of people." 

Really Larry?  maybe you need your vision checked.


A huge THANK YOU to Eric Hall for gathering the information in this post. Any errors are mine.