Shawn Nelson For Supervisor?
Posted by: Jubal | 07/24/2008 12:20 PM
The word on the street is Fullerton Councilman Shawn Nelson is considering a run for the 4th Supervisor District when incumbent Chris Norby is termed out in 2010.Thus far, talk has centered on OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly's interest in running for the seat, and the possibility that outgoing state Sen. Dick Ackerman may run for it. If Ackerman runs, it's his seat to lose. I think it would lead to Tom Daly deferring his supervisorial aspirations: he's relatively young and occupies an office unburdened by term limits. He can afford to wait.
If Ackerman doesn't run, then Republican politicos would be looking for a GOP candidate to back against Daly, who is a Democrat (who has demonstrated a maddening -- from a GOP perspective -- ability to attract Republican votes in nonpartisan contests).
I don't know enough about Shawn Nelson to know if he matches that profile. Shawn was been victorious at the ballot in Fullerton twice...
...in 2002:
...and 2004:
In the event the 4th District race were a one-on-one between Nelson and Daly, Nelson would have a real shot with vigorous Republican support. The OC GOP would doubtless endorse him, and the Lincoln Club and other IEs would likely jump in to avoid the prospect of a likable Democrat on the Board of Supervisors.
That's all speculation at this point, however. We'll have to see how things unfold.
Back on the ground in Fullerton, Nelson is up for re-election in November, as are his council colleagues Dr. Richard "Dick" Jones and Sharon Quirk. While Quirk and Jones have taken out candidate papers, Nelson has yet to do so.
Also taking out candidate papers are:
Richard Little
Joel Story
Harold Hulbert
Karen Haluza
I don't know who Richard Little is. From what little I've unearthed on Harold Hulbert, he appears to be a twentysomething with a background of student government activism.
I'm guessing that Joel Sotry is the same retired County of Orange social worker who was going to mount a primary challenge to Rep. Gary Miller this year, but didn't for reasons I don't know.
Karen Haluza is a Santa Ana city planner and a Democrat. Two strikes right there.
The third strike is that before she was a Santa Ana city planner, she was a Brea city planner: ground zero for overreaching redevelopment.
Beware, Fullerton!
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2010 Elections
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
The Fullerton RWF might have a problem with Nelson after he supported Sharon Quirk's council election for Mayor over Don Bankhead. He sided with the two Democrats on the council, Quirk and Keller, in voting for Quirk against the publicly expressed desire of the Federated women.
Not a move one with aspirations for higher office would/should probably make.
I think Nelson, matched up against Daly's high name ID and crossover appeal, gets shellacked in your hypothetical. We need someone with higher name ID. Ackerman's great. Daucher possible (but scarey). Even Eric Norby. These are the three that immediately come to mind.
If name ID weren't an issue, my ideal candidate: Bruce Whitaker, Supervisorial Assistant.
Nelson will stop at nothing to rid Orange County of those classic lowrider cars. Go Nelson!
It is very important that Republicans rally behind a candidate -- Tom Daly is a Democrat - blech.
Also, Jubal, thanks for putting up those 2004 results. It was a pleasant reminder that Mike Clesceri, the Republican incumbent wire-wearing weenie, got knocked off of the council (h/t to Mike Schroeder).
Call the RFW, maybe the Fullerton RFW would be kind enough to explain the difference between Don Bankhead and a Democrat.
Daly will be tough to beat, and Ackerman, even if he wanted to play big frog in small puddle, would have to move back to Fullerton (unless he were to buy a condo like Umberg tried to get away with).
Eric Norby is not a politician and lives in LagBeach. Bruce has already given it a try and is on the Central Committee; he is also Nelson'e appointee to the Fullerton Planning Commission. Yet I doubt if he would have any ambitions in that direction; but I agree that he would make a great supervisor.
Shawn Nelson can raise money and would get a lot of support from the Lincoln Club, et. al. If serious, he could be a formidible candidate.
Good points RP. I'm just not thrilled with any members of the Fullerton CC taking over for Norby.
I knew Eric didn't live in the district, but he has the name, and, as you recognized, anyone can move.
What about a different Nelson? Scott Nelson (Placentia)?
David Bailey is running. He is a former Los Angeles City police officer and current chairman of the Fullerton Planning Commission. I think he also owns a business in Fullerton and has been active with The Fox and downtown stuff. He might be a good candidate to replace Shawn. I think they run in the same circles....