Whither Kermit?
Posted by: Jubal | 06/04/2008 9:38 AM
My good friend, Westminster Councilman Kermit Marsh, didn't finish first in the Superior Court Office 12, but he'll be in the November run-off with top vote-getter Debra Carrillo:
Kermit was in third place for much of the evening, but steadily moved up throughout the night.
The reality of a run-off with Carrillo raises the question of what Kermit will do in November. He essentially has three choices:
A) Run simultaneously in the judicial run-off and for re-election to Westminster City Council.
B) Run for judge, but not council re-election
C) Run for council re-election but opt out of the judicial run-off.
I don't believe there is any statutory bar to Kermit running for both offices at the same time, which is clearly the most attractive option. He's a slam-dunk for re-election to the council, so if he's unable to best Carrillo in the run-off, Kermit's still a councilmember.
At the same time, it's difficult to fund-raise for to offices at the same time.
At first blush, Carrillo had the advantage going into the run-off. She won 22,431 more votes than Kermit, and has a shorter distance than to the magic 50% plus 1 number.
Carrillo and Mike Flory combined for 58.3% of the vote -- a testament to the power of the "Deputy District Attorney" ballot title considering she's only been a DDA for three years and that Flory not only has a horrible reputation among law enforcement, but the only media coverage he received was negative.
Working in Kermit's favor is the fact he's a Republican and Carrillo is a Democrat. November will likely be a Democratic year, but Orange County is still a strongly Republican county. Even thought this is a non-partisan race, party affiliation still matters to voters. If Kermit -- or rather, OC GOP member communications or some other voter contact vehicle -- hammer at GOP voters about Carrillo's Democratic affiliation and years as a public defender, it will take a toll.
Obviously it's not a guarantee. DDA (annd Democrat) Sheila Hanson bested GOPer Lyle Robertson 58.3% to 41.7% in a judicial run-off in 2006. Heck, I voted for Sheila. But Sheila was almost in the end zone after the primary, in which she racked up 49.4%.
In the meantime, Kermit Marsh and Debra Carrillo will no doubt be focused on fund-raising, picking up more endorsements and locking up slates.
Stay tuned...
Kermit was in third place for much of the evening, but steadily moved up throughout the night.
The reality of a run-off with Carrillo raises the question of what Kermit will do in November. He essentially has three choices:
A) Run simultaneously in the judicial run-off and for re-election to Westminster City Council.
B) Run for judge, but not council re-election
C) Run for council re-election but opt out of the judicial run-off.
I don't believe there is any statutory bar to Kermit running for both offices at the same time, which is clearly the most attractive option. He's a slam-dunk for re-election to the council, so if he's unable to best Carrillo in the run-off, Kermit's still a councilmember.
At the same time, it's difficult to fund-raise for to offices at the same time.
At first blush, Carrillo had the advantage going into the run-off. She won 22,431 more votes than Kermit, and has a shorter distance than to the magic 50% plus 1 number.
Carrillo and Mike Flory combined for 58.3% of the vote -- a testament to the power of the "Deputy District Attorney" ballot title considering she's only been a DDA for three years and that Flory not only has a horrible reputation among law enforcement, but the only media coverage he received was negative.
Working in Kermit's favor is the fact he's a Republican and Carrillo is a Democrat. November will likely be a Democratic year, but Orange County is still a strongly Republican county. Even thought this is a non-partisan race, party affiliation still matters to voters. If Kermit -- or rather, OC GOP member communications or some other voter contact vehicle -- hammer at GOP voters about Carrillo's Democratic affiliation and years as a public defender, it will take a toll.
Obviously it's not a guarantee. DDA (annd Democrat) Sheila Hanson bested GOPer Lyle Robertson 58.3% to 41.7% in a judicial run-off in 2006. Heck, I voted for Sheila. But Sheila was almost in the end zone after the primary, in which she racked up 49.4%.
In the meantime, Kermit Marsh and Debra Carrillo will no doubt be focused on fund-raising, picking up more endorsements and locking up slates.
Stay tuned...
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
Best of luck to Kermit, but from what I've seen from the OCGOP over the past few years I think Kermit is on his own (even though he himself is on the CC).
In OC, a good push pointing out party affiliation to GOP households, along with Kermit's unique name, should make this a win for him.