Van Versus Janet: Attrition Or Cooperation?
Posted by: Jubal | 06/04/2008 5:34 PM
In early 1915, following the Battles of the Marne, World War I shifted from a bloody war of maneuver to an even bloodier war of attrition as the Germans and the Allies entrenched.
I think the war of maneuver between Assemblyman Van Tran and Supervisor Janet Nguyen that commenced with the run-up to the 2007 special supervisorial election has almost reached a similar point. The question is will they entrench and wage a destructive war of attrition -- or reach some sort of peace settlement.
Sorry, I have a tendency to think in military history metaphors.
Now that the 1st Supervisor District election has been settled and Janet has won a decisive victory, central OC's two leading elected officials are at a crossroads.
On one hand, they could continue to fight it out via proxies by recruiting candidates to run against each others proteges for local elected offices.A newly-energized Supervisor Nguyen could decide its payback time and covertly (or overtly) sabotage whatever plans Van Tran may have of running for the Sanchez seat in 2010.
All of which would be tremendously destructive to Republican prospects in central Orange County.
On the other hand, each side could sheathe their swords, call a truce and discuss the mutual advantages of cooperation. They don't even have to like each other if they don't want.
Van Tran and Janet Nguyen could accomplish a great deal for GOP fortunes in central OC by working in tandem. Van Tran has a built a tremendous political and voter registration operation that has served as the infrastructure making possible for GOP successes in central county -- including Janet's own. Supervisor Nguyen has demonstrated an indefatigableness, fundraising prowess and cross-over political appeal.
Together, their respective gifts and organizations would be a potent combination permitting Republicans to become more competitive in territory heretofore unfriendly to Republican candidates.
A Van-Janet entente would boost candidate recruitment efforts. It easier to identify, develope and field good candidates if those potential candidates don't have to worry about choosing sides in an ongoing intra-party feud where making a friend in party grouping guarantees an enemy in another.
For all the criticism he's received, Van Tran has also demonstrated an ability to place the party's interest first. In the wake of his rough handling when the Senate GOP leadership passed him over in 2006 in favor of Assemblyman Lynn Daucher as the standard bearer in the 34th Senate District, Van could have taken his marbles and gone home. Instead, he threw his formidable operation into the Daucher effort. Absent Van's help, I doubt Daucher would have come within a hair of defeating Lou Correa.
And for all the criticism Janet has received -- including a good deal from this blogger -- there's no denying she has a future in GOP politics. She's young and will be on the Board of Supervisors for another eight years. Color me skeptical that her political interests are intrinsically at odds with Van Tran's. Rather, I think they are complementary -- and vice versa. And I believe she's savvy enough to recognize that, as is Van.
This is a point where some gestures of good will would help. Van Tran might offer to organize a fundraiser for Janet, who might reciprocate by disavowing Shirley Grindle's frivolous FPPC complaint against Van. Perhaps even a joint unity breakfast.
I realize it is difficult to dial-down the emotions and anger following a long brawl as bitter as this one has been. But their ability to do so is what distinguishes the amateurs from the professionals.
So rather than training their guns on each other, here's to hoping Janet Nguyen and Van Tran embrace the wisdom of training them in the same direction.
UPDATE (6:27 p.m.): I see Martin Wisckol has a post on the same topic over at Total Buzz. great minds think alike.
I think the war of maneuver between Assemblyman Van Tran and Supervisor Janet Nguyen that commenced with the run-up to the 2007 special supervisorial election has almost reached a similar point. The question is will they entrench and wage a destructive war of attrition -- or reach some sort of peace settlement.
Sorry, I have a tendency to think in military history metaphors.
Now that the 1st Supervisor District election has been settled and Janet has won a decisive victory, central OC's two leading elected officials are at a crossroads.
On one hand, they could continue to fight it out via proxies by recruiting candidates to run against each others proteges for local elected offices.A newly-energized Supervisor Nguyen could decide its payback time and covertly (or overtly) sabotage whatever plans Van Tran may have of running for the Sanchez seat in 2010.
All of which would be tremendously destructive to Republican prospects in central Orange County.
On the other hand, each side could sheathe their swords, call a truce and discuss the mutual advantages of cooperation. They don't even have to like each other if they don't want.
Van Tran and Janet Nguyen could accomplish a great deal for GOP fortunes in central OC by working in tandem. Van Tran has a built a tremendous political and voter registration operation that has served as the infrastructure making possible for GOP successes in central county -- including Janet's own. Supervisor Nguyen has demonstrated an indefatigableness, fundraising prowess and cross-over political appeal.
Together, their respective gifts and organizations would be a potent combination permitting Republicans to become more competitive in territory heretofore unfriendly to Republican candidates.
A Van-Janet entente would boost candidate recruitment efforts. It easier to identify, develope and field good candidates if those potential candidates don't have to worry about choosing sides in an ongoing intra-party feud where making a friend in party grouping guarantees an enemy in another.
For all the criticism he's received, Van Tran has also demonstrated an ability to place the party's interest first. In the wake of his rough handling when the Senate GOP leadership passed him over in 2006 in favor of Assemblyman Lynn Daucher as the standard bearer in the 34th Senate District, Van could have taken his marbles and gone home. Instead, he threw his formidable operation into the Daucher effort. Absent Van's help, I doubt Daucher would have come within a hair of defeating Lou Correa.
And for all the criticism Janet has received -- including a good deal from this blogger -- there's no denying she has a future in GOP politics. She's young and will be on the Board of Supervisors for another eight years. Color me skeptical that her political interests are intrinsically at odds with Van Tran's. Rather, I think they are complementary -- and vice versa. And I believe she's savvy enough to recognize that, as is Van.
This is a point where some gestures of good will would help. Van Tran might offer to organize a fundraiser for Janet, who might reciprocate by disavowing Shirley Grindle's frivolous FPPC complaint against Van. Perhaps even a joint unity breakfast.
I realize it is difficult to dial-down the emotions and anger following a long brawl as bitter as this one has been. But their ability to do so is what distinguishes the amateurs from the professionals.
So rather than training their guns on each other, here's to hoping Janet Nguyen and Van Tran embrace the wisdom of training them in the same direction.
UPDATE (6:27 p.m.): I see Martin Wisckol has a post on the same topic over at Total Buzz. great minds think alike.
It was on this blog where a video of Van was up with him promising to be the first call to congratulate Janet if she won. I wonder if he did?
I think the exclamation point on this race is that Janet doesn't want to get pulled down to Van Tran's level or else they'd have joined forces long before now. Since she beat both of his stooges, she shouldn't even acknowledge his existence. I believe one local blog put his record at 0 for 6. I'm sure she knows better than to associate with losers.
SMS
the big fat lady will lose greatly if the election is a primary one. look at the meager number she has and compare it to the number of registered voters in the county. so, in 2012 she will have a hard time. also the democrats, especially viet democrats are growing in numbers. in 2012 who knows if thien tam, lou's aide or phu nguyen, son of tycoon owner of hoa phat, or phu do nguyen, the rising tycoon in real estate will enter the race. behind thien tam or phu there are vsa groups with a large base of young and eager voters and volunteers.
the big fat lady will certainly face a hard-time retaining her seat. but she really needs the seat. it's not just the seat. it's her income. it's her family income. without it, what can she do with no real work experience?
on the other hand, van tran will now free to do whatever he wants to do because he knows that janet will not dare to risk her seat or even attemp to leave her seat for another seat, such as sanchez's possible open seat in 2010.
also, in the vietnamese the big fat lady cannot get along with many. young voters, like the vsa members who are about her age disapprove of her. many vsa leaders i talk to do not respect janet for his skills, education, or leadership. she does not get along with the older generations either. all of these groups support her opponents. the only group that might support her is the group protesting nguoi viet newspaper. but ngo ky, one of the leaders of that group hates tony lam, who is the big fat lady's advisor, to death. without true support, it's hard for her to recruit vietnamese candidates to go against van tran's candidates.
what you can foresee that there will be 2 main forces in the vietnamese community: the current van tran's group and the emerging young democrats group (thien tam, phu, do phu, hoa tran, etc.). in nowhere will you find the big fat lady's group.
as such, van tran will free to do many more things, preparing him to enter a much bigger challenge in 2010. or not. he might be serving in mccain's cabinet in 2009 already, if mccain wins. if that's the case, he can even more freely recruit and produce more young and eager vietnamese politicians.
on the same token, the local vietnamese democrats might prevail if obama wins. attorney phu do nguyen and failed candidate hoa van tran are supporters of obama. who knows if one of them will serve in mccain's cabinet. they'll have a reason to take back central oc from the reps.
if the big fat lady wants to build her own team, without vietnamese support, she then must turn to hispanics or caucasians or muslims to recruit, nurture and cultivate them. but what is it for? they can come back and bite her because they have their (ethnic, race) supporters, too.
so, to sum up, the big fat lady is very lucky to secure a $130,000 job and she will hold it tight, very tight. she will not want to risk the big check for anything else.
Van Tran in the cabinet... wait a sec... hold on... ROFLMFAO!
Ok buddy. You've had enough. Give me your keys.
SMS
To: Big Fat Idiot 6/5 12:43 - I can see that Student/CRA Republican has re-emerged with a different name, one much more fitting in my humble opinion. Big Fat Idiot/Student/CRA Republican: You are really venting now. These are long posts filled with the exact same writing style as in your previous posts, only this is longer. You must really be ticked. And, you have a right to be. Your Sweet Dina lost. But calling the winning candidate names is hardly condusive to getting anyone to cut you any slack on here for your previous caustic and demeaning comments for months and months. Your previously annoying comments are now in the past. Why don't you try to regain some self control and self respect without destroying what little commentary distraction you held previously? I.E. Get a grip and get over it like others have.
It would be nice if Van Tran could mend fences with Janet. However, I will have to see it to believe it. He was so rabid with spending his own money, proping up candidates, lending his staff to run campaigns for those candidates, taking out viscious ads in the Viet Papers... But I DO REMEMBER at the Republican Central Committee when he gave his "don't endorse Janet" speech, he also said if she won in June or November that "we will get behind her and support her" Then Janet and he shook hands up on the stage in front of the whole room.
So Assemblyman, are you a man of your word? Will you bury the hatchet (somewhere other than in someone else) and make peace with Janet?
It's time.
Big Fat Idiot: It's fine to use a negative sobriquet for yourself, but name calling a legitimate politician is rude and counter-productive: I stopped reading your post after the second pointless insult. Supervisor Nguyen has won her post, fair and square. Feel free to point why this is bad. But please do so respectfully; there are plenty of other places on the web where you can indulge in idle adolescent name calling
Jubal: I agree with your military metaphor on this one. Both sides would have been much better off agreeing to a peace deal after the Marne made it clear what the remainder of the war would be like. Indeed, Germany would have much better off conceding all territorial gains and agreeing to a Status Quo Ante Bellum on the Western Front. But neither side would allow themselves to agree to anything less than "VICTORY" -- which ended up wasting millions of lives, destroying much of Europe's economy, and planting the seeds for WWII.
And so for these political actors. They are both Viet Namese Republicans. They could do so much more for their community, their party, and themselves if they found a way to work together, or at least not focus on grinding each other into oblivion.
According to Martin Wisckol's Total Buzz, Van Tran did call Janet Nguyen yesterday to congratulate her for a "fair" win. Perhaps Jubal can link the post for all to read.
"...(Van Tran) was so rabid with spending his own money, proping up candidates, lending his staff to run campaigns for those candidates..."
I wish we had more GOP Assemblymen spending money on local races, building up our bench and getting their staffs valuable campaign experience.
Lending his staff to run campaigns? Whenever I saw his staff, they were on Assembly time. You can't lend staff on the weekends, so who was it that was working campaign on the taxpayer dime??