Predictions Contest For CUSD Recall Election
Posted by: Jubal | 06/24/2008 3:54 PM
The polls don't close for another three hours, so there's still for an OC Blog prediction contest for the CUSD recall election.
Entrants need to hazard three predictions:
Entrants need to hazard three predictions:
*The Yes/No percentages on recalling CUSD Trustee Marlene DraperThe winner will receive the same prize package as was offered in the Primary Election prediction Contest (by the way, I'm sorting out the winners there).
*The Yes/No percentage on recalling CUSD Trustee Sheila Benecke
*The percentages for the three candidates (Ken Maddox, Gary V. Miller and Makam Subbaro) in the Benecke replacement election.
CATEGORY:
2008 Elections, CUSD Recall
The difference between the yes/nos on Draper versus Benecke will be insignificant. I say each will be 55% in favor, 45% against recall.
Ken Maddox 45%, Gary V. Miller 35%, Subbarao 20%
Im not going to guess on percentages but I am pretty confident that the recall will get a yes vote and Ken Maddox will win election to that seat. I say this because he has been very involved in the recall campaign, has pretty good name recognition, and has been working the race very hard. In comparison his opponents have not worked the campaign at all.
The anti-recall side has been working some what. The deciding factor will be the GOTV for the different sides of the recall question. After that, it will be on votes. Even anti-recall voters will vote for Maddozx simply by his name recognition. I think that will put him very much in the lead by wide margins.
67% yes on the recall for both candidates.
55% for Maddox
30% for Miller
15% for the other guy
Draper recalled: yes 53%
Benecke recalled: yes 55%
Maddox 40%
Miller 25%
Suburaro 20%
writeins/blanks/hanging chads: 15%
I don't know who will win, but it will be all by absentee vote.
At 330pm, in my VERY consolidated polling place (virtually all of Dove Canyon) I was the EIGHTH voter of the day -- and no on at all had dropped off any absentee ballots either.
Wish I had seen this pronostication opportunity yesterday. I could have told you the recall would win by a huge supermajority -- it was a no brainer. The voters delivered a humiliating and complete repudiation to both old guard incumbents yesterday.
Final Numbers:
Draper recalled (69.8% - 30.2% -- a whopping 40% loss)
Benecke recalled (69.9 - 30.1% -- a whopping 40% loss)
Congratulations to newly elected reform trustees Palazzo and Maddox. Way to go recall team!
I know there were only a few participants, but I was pretty close. Do I still get a mug?
You are da winnah,, Captain!
E-mail me your address.