Prediction Contest For June 3 Primary!
Posted by: Jubal | 06/03/2008 5:50 PM
It's time for the traditional OC Blog election predictions contest!
Enter you predictions for the winner and loser(s) in the following contests:
The tie-breaker: correctly predicting the winner in each of the four judicial races
-- not the percentages, just the winner.
And the prize? A lovely OC Blog gift basket: a Magic 8-Ball for the winning seer, plus a classic OC Blog coffee mug and a pack of "Machismo" bubblegum cigarettes.
As per usual, all predictions must be posted in the comments section by 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, June 3.
UPDATE: I omitted -- and have now included -- SD29 in the races about which readers need to make a prediction. Also, if you are a pseudonymous commenter and win, you'll have to provide a mailing address to claim your prize.
Enter you predictions for the winner and loser(s) in the following contests:
- 33rd Senate District: Mimi Walters v. Harry SidhuEntrants need to enter the winning/losing percentages as well as the name of the winning/losing candidates.
- 29th Senate District: Bob Huff v. Dennis Mountjoy
- 71st Assembly District: Jeff Miller v. Neil Blais
- 60th Assembly District: Larry Dick v. Curt Hagman
- 1st Supervisor District: Janet Nguyen v. Dina Nguyen v. Hoa Van Tran
- 3rd Supervisor District: Bill Campbell v. Donald Ritze
The tie-breaker: correctly predicting the winner in each of the four judicial races
-- not the percentages, just the winner.And the prize? A lovely OC Blog gift basket: a Magic 8-Ball for the winning seer, plus a classic OC Blog coffee mug and a pack of "Machismo" bubblegum cigarettes.
As per usual, all predictions must be posted in the comments section by 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, June 3.
UPDATE: I omitted -- and have now included -- SD29 in the races about which readers need to make a prediction. Also, if you are a pseudonymous commenter and win, you'll have to provide a mailing address to claim your prize.
CATEGORY:
2008 Elections
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
33rd Senate District: Mimi Walters v. Harry Sidhu
Winner: Walters, 57-43
29th Senate District: Bob Huff v. Dennis Mountjoy
Winner Huff, 52-48
71st Assembly District: Jeff Miller v. Neil Blais
Winner: Miller, 54-46
60th Assembly District: Larry Dick v. Curt Hagman
Winner: Hagman, 61-39
1st Supervisor District: Janet Nguyen v. Dina Nguyen v. Hoa Van Tran
Winner: Janet Nguyen, 44-29-21
3rd Supervisor District: Bill Campbell v. Donald Ritze
Winner: Campbell, 71-29
#4 - Mike Bartlett
#8 - Jon Fish
#12 - Kermit Marsh
#25 - John Nho Trong Nguyen
- 33rd Senate District: Mimi Walters 51% v. Harry Sidhu 45%
- 29th Senate District: Bob Huff 52% v Dennis Mountjoy 46%
- 71st Assembly District: Jeff Miller 49% v. Neil Blais 47%
- 60th Assembly District: Larry Dick 39% v. Curt Hagman 57%
- 1st Supervisor District: Janet Nguyen 35% v. Dina Nguyen 37% v. Hoa Van Tran 25%
- 3rd Supervisor District: Bill Campbell 75% v. Donald Ritze 20%
#4 - Mike Bartlett
#8 - Jon Fish
#12 - Kermit Marsh
#25 - John Nho Trong Nguyen
Jubal: You forgot to include the 29th Senate District race between Assemblyman Bob Huff and Former Assemblyman Dennis Mountjoy!!!
Sidhu 51%
Huff 60%
Miller 56%
Hagman 55%
J. Nguyen 49%
D. Nguyen 40%
H. Tran 11%
Campbell 80%
Thompson
Fish
Carillo (Marsh will join her in the run off)
NT Nguyen
Winner Predictions:
33rd = Walters
29th = Mountjoy
71st = Miller
60th = Dick (tough to call this one)
1st = Janet Nguyen
3rd = Campbell
Check my IP to find me 8-)
Judges: Carillo vs Marsh
Fish
J Nguyen
33rd SD: Mimi Walters v. Harry Sidhu
Winner: Walters, 53-47
29th SD: Bob Huff v. Dick Mountjoy
Winner: Huff, 53-47
71st AD: Jeff Miller v. Neil Blais
Winner: Miller, 56-44
60th AD: Larry Dick v. Curt Hagman
Winner: Hagman, 58-42
1st Supe: Janet Nguyen v. Dina Nguyen v. Hoa Van Tran
Winner: Janet Nguyen, 39-35-26
3rd Supe: Bill Campbell v. Donald Ritze
Winner: Campbell, 82-18
#4 - Mike Bartlett
#8 - Jon Fish
#12 - Kermit Marsh
#25 - John Nho Trong Nguyen
29th: Winner Huff, 52%
sidhu vs. walters
winner: Sidhu!!
Huff 62 Mountjoy 35
Walters 59 Sidhu 38
Miller 54 Blais 42
Hagman 59 Dick 37
JNguyen 50.5 DNguyen 25 Hoa Van Tran 20
4 Bartlett
8 Fish
12 Marsh
25 Nguyen
Forgot Bill Campbell
Campbell 79 Ritze 18
33rd SD: Mimi Walters v. Harry Sidhu
Winner: Walters, 58-41
29th SD: Bob Huff v. Dick Mountjoy
Winner: Huff, 54-45
71st AD: Jeff Miller v. Neil Blais
Winner: Miller, 54-45
60th AD: Larry Dick v. Curt Hagman
Winner: Hagman, 55-44
1st Supe: Janet Nguyen v. Dina Nguyen v. Hoa Van Tran
Winner: Janet Nguyen, 48-27-21
3rd Supe: Bill Campbell v. Donald Ritze
Winner: Campbell, 87-12
#4 - Mike Bartlett
#8 - Jon Fish
#12 - Kermit Marsh
#25 - John Nho Trong Nguyen
I don't wish to be in the contest I just want to give my opinion on two races
33 SD
Walters 61
Sidhu 39
Sidhu was smart to engage the services of Coronado Communications. They have proved they can win in OC. He should have kept listening to them. His campaign jumped the shark with that silly press conference that Harry organized himself.
Mimi had the funding, the political record/resume and the services GBWA- who don't really know how to lose in the heart of Orange County. I think Mimi has a statewide office in her future.
71 AD
Miller 56
Blais 44
Neil Blais had the talent of Tim Clark & the OC Money machine in his corner and he still managed to blow it. Given the proper amount of funding that Blais should have raised Clark would have made this closer. Blais taking bad political advice from the fellow members of his city council on being the “Orange County Candidate” was a disaster. Miller ran an issue oriented campaign talking about things Republican primary voters care about. Miller had the foresight to seek and listen to advice from GBWA who as I stated above are the best at winning OC primaries. In hindsight the OC machine should have backed Mission Viejo Councilman John Paul Ledesma. With voters discovering that Blais is a former liberal Dem and that he makes his living getting government grants for the welfare class, he is going to have a hard time hanging on to his council seat in two years.
SD 33
Walters 54%
Sidhu 46%
SD 29
Huff 63%
Mountjoy 37%
AD 71
Blais 55%
Miller 45%
AD 60
Hagman 58%
Dick 42%
1st Supe
J. Nguyen 52%
D. Nguyen 39%
Tran 9%
3rd Supe
Campbell 79%
Ritze 21%
Judges
#4 Nick Thompson
#8 - Jon Fish
#12 - Debra Carrillo (takes 1st, but goes to run-off with Kermit Marsh)
#25 - J. Nguyen
71st Blowout
Blaise 99.9%
Miller 0.01%
Blais is from Orange County and Miller is from that pile of cow poop called Riverside County. There is no way Blais loses like all the polling says he will- NO WAY !!!!.
Neil already has a house in Sacramento, he is ready to serve this can't be happening it can't. We are RSM we rule the world , we are better then the rest. I can't believe this is happening, Please God Please let Neil win, PLLLLLLLEEEEEEAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Mimi vs. Sidhu - 59% - 41%
Huff vs. Mountjoy - 56% - 44%
Miller vs. Blais - 53% - 47%
Dick vs. Hagman - 60% - 40%
Nguyen vs. Nguyen vs. Tran - 51% - 27% - 22%
Campbell vs. Ritze - 82% - 18%
Thompson
Fish
Run Off Marsh and Carrillo
Current Judge Nguyen
Debby:
I didn't extend an invitation. I was being sarcastic. The comments on this post are for predictions.
33rd SD: Mimi Walters v. Harry Sidhu
Winner: Walters, 56-43
29th SD: Bob Huff v. Dick Mountjoy
Winner: Huff, 52-48
71st AD: Jeff Miller v. Neil Blais
Winner: Miller, 55-45
60th AD: Larry Dick v. Curt Hagman
Winner: Dick, 51-49
1st Supe: Janet Nguyen v. Dina Nguyen v. Hoa Van Tran
Winner: Janet Nguyen, 52-28-20
3rd Supe: Bill Campbell v. Donald Ritze
Winner: Campbell, 77-23
#4 - Nick Thompson
#8 - Barry Collins
#12 - Kermit Marsh (Will be in runoff with Debra Carrillo)
#25 - John Nho Trong Nguyen
33: Walters by 14%
29: Huff by 18%
71: Miller by 4%
60: Hagman by 8%
1st Sup: Janet 55%, Dina 30%, Tran 15%
3rd Sup: Campbell by 60%
Nick Thompson
Jon Fish
Kermit Marsh
John Nguyen
BTW, I'm still waiting for my coffee mugs for correctly predicting Truong would not file and Dina would!
a great big THANK YOU to Jubal and the rest of the OCBlog for coverage of the judicial contests. These have always been tough in chez tylerh, but this morning Mrs. Tylerh and I were happily clicking throughTomahawk's posts. It felt good to finally make an informed decision in these races.
THANK YOU.
Also, does anyone want to give odds on Allan succeeding in his electoral quest? He got two votes from my corner of Irvine this morning!
- 33rd Senate District: Mimi Walters 53-47
- 29th Senate District: Dennis Mountjoy 51-49
- 71st Assembly District: Neil Blais 52-48
- 60th Assembly District: Curt Hagman 54-46
- 1st Supervisor District: Janet Nguyen v. Dina Nguyen runoff 42-35
- 3rd Supervisor District: Bill Campbell 72-28
Judges: Thompson, Fish, Carillo, Nguyen
- 33rd Senate District: Mimi Walters 62% v. Harry Sidhu 37%
- 29th Senate District: Bob Huff 54% v Dennis Mountjoy 45%
- 71st Assembly District: Jeff Miller 53% v. Neil Blais 46%
- 60th Assembly District: Larry Dick 38% v. Curt Hagman 59%
- 1st Supervisor District: Janet Nguyen 48% v. Dina Nguyen 25% v. Hoa Van Tran 26%
- 3rd Supervisor District: Bill Campbell 79% v. Donald Ritze 21%
Thompson
Jon Fish
John Nho Trong Nguyen
Kermit Marsh
- 33rd Senate District: Mimi Walters v. Harry Sidhu
Winner Mimi Walters 61% vs. Sidhu 39%
- 29th Senate District: Bob Huff v. Dennis Mountjoy
I do not have a clue on this one.
Winner Huff 52% vs. 48% for Mountjoy
- 71st Assembly District: Jeff Miller v. Neil Blais
Winner Miller 56% vs. Blais 44%
- 60th Assembly District: Larry Dick v. Curt Hagman
Winner Hagman 55% vs. Dick 45%
- 1st Supervisor District: Janet Nguyen v. Dina Nguyen v. Hoa Van Tran
I can’t even pretend to understand all of the dynamics here.
Winner Janet 60% vs. Dina 22% and Hoa 18%
- 3rd Supervisor District: Bill Campbell v. Donald Ritze
Winner Campbell 91.5% vs. Ritze 8.5%
Judicial races
office # 4 Thompson
office #8 Fish
office # 12 Runoff Carrillo and Marsh
office # 25 John Nho Trong Ngueny
JPL as I stated above, you would have done a much better job repersenting OC in the 71st AD race.
Thanks Tyler
Phil,
Thank you for the kind words but a closer second is still second. Jeff will be a great representative for the 71st and the movement.