Did Mickadeit Kill Mike Flory's Judicial Candidacy?
Posted by: Jubal | 06/04/2008 3:08 PM
On Monday, Frank Mickadeit wrote a column detailing some of the reasons why Deputy District Attorney and Superior Court candidate Mike Flory received a "not recommended" rating from the bar association. Frank was relatively gentle compared to what could have been written about Flory.I was talking to a friend of mine this afternoon who made the case this column is the reason Flory finished third and failed to make the run-off with Debra Carrillo.
I think that's a plausible argument.
UPDATE: Some readers have voiced concern that I'm ignoring other factors in the results of this race. Such is not my intent. While Frank impacted Flory's chances, that wouldn't have mattered as much if it weren't for Kermit's efforts that floated his judicial campaign:
First, approximately 10 days before the election a mailer was sent from Marsh and Jon Fish to Republican, Decline-To-State and Democratic high-propensity permanent absentees that had not voted, as well as to high-propensity election day voters. The mailer touted their DA Tony Rackauckas endorsement. This surely had an impact.
Second, on Monday before Elecion Day, a robo call went out from Rackauckas to 200,000 high propensity Dem and DTS Election Day voters touting his endorsement of Marsh and Fish -- which surely had an impact on the Election Day results.
Flory was clearly doing well on the basis of his Deputy District Attorney. The first returns had him in second place and leading Kermit Marsh by a little more than a 1,000 votes. Those were the early votes and the vote-by-mail ballots that had been received and processed.
The subsequent updates on the Registrar of Voters website were primarily late VBMs and Election Day voters -- the folks who would have read Frank's column. Each new update eroded Flory's lead until Marsh ultimately beat him by about 5,200 votes.
It's hard to know with any certainty what causes turn-arounds like that, but Frank's column was the only "new evidence" (so to speak) presented to OC's voter jury -- which leads me to believe it doomed Flory.
And all I can say is, thank you Frank Mickadeit.
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Geesh, Jubal, do I have to connect all the dots for you?
Mickadeit's column had nothing to do with it.
The real reason Kermit beat Flory is his name, "Kermit D. Marsh" - which is very similar to "Kermit The Frog." This resignated well across the board with voters ages 25 to 55 regardless of party affiliation. It also proved invaluable with those households with small children. Since older voters still prefer to vote in person, "Kermit D. Marsh" did not surge until later into the evening as the precinct votes were counted.
Interestingly, many small children were seen with their parents in the voting booths this time insisting on helping Mommy and Daddy vote.
This is the perfect example of "shooting the messenger" when the message isn't pleasing. All Michadeit did was report on what the O.C. Bar Association said. If Flory should blame anybody, he should blame himself for "earning" the ranking of "not recommended" by his peers. If Flory is seriously blaming Michadeit for his loss, then perhaps it's a good thing Flory didn't win. Who needs such emotional immaturity in a Superior Court judge?