Secretary of State Announces Random Ballot Alphabet
Posted by: Jubal | 03/13/2008 3:42 PM
Per Jon Fleischman at the FlashReport Blog:
The Secretary of State pulled conducted the random drawing of letters to determine ballot order, which can give a little "bump" to the first person (isn't that sad?).More here
Here is the order: H, E, A, N, O, V, P, J, U, L, S, M, X, B, C, T, I, K, R, Q, D, Y, F, W, G, Z.
Seems like good news for these GOP candidates whose last name begins with an "H" -- a little lift for their primary? Paul Hegyi, Sue Horne, Diane Harkey, Gabriella Holt, Curt Hagman, Bob Huff, and Duncan D. Hunter.
CATEGORY:
2008 Elections
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
Do local races use the same formula for the ballot order? Or do they come up with their own formula since they are non-partisan?
it is all the same alphabet for every one state wide.
Okay math whizzes. What are the odds of Z remaining the last letter?
1/26
The Fly is evidently a "Brain"! 1 in 26 is spot on!
Correction...
If it is the first number drawn it is 1 in 26.
If it is the 26th number drawn it is 1 in 1, because Z would be the only number left to draw!...
You need to go back to the original question: What were the odds of z remaining the last letter drawn? If you draw 25 letters and Z isn't one of the 25, then the odds are 1/1 that Z will be the last letter drawn. If you have yet to draw a single letter, then the odds of any specific letter being drawn first or last is 1/26.
You can't use a post-hoc/propter-hoc argument with this statistical analysis.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for "after this, therefore because of this", is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) which states, "Since that event followed this one, that event must have been caused by this one." It is often shortened to simply post hoc and is also sometimes referred to as false cause, coincidental correlation or correlation not causation. It is subtly different from the fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc, in which the chronological ordering of a correlation is insignificant.
Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality.
Guys you're mixing logical reasoning and statistics, which do not have to follow the same rules.
The answer is 1/26.
Right!!
Faldarall...aren't there more important things to discuss than the odds of z being the last letter drawn?
Anon 11:20AM,
I agreed. For your entertainment, in the 1st District Supervisorial race, the order of all candidates as follows:
DINA NGUYEN
JANET NGUYEN
HOA VAN TRAN
Everyone should vote for the first person, DINA NGUYEN. Go girl!
Anon 533pm,
Pfft I say to that. The middle girl is my girl!