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HB Mayor Debbie Cook To Take Up Democratic Banner Against Dana Rohrbacher

Posted by: Jubal | 02/03/2008 3:01 PM

debbie_cook_1.jpgMy fellow OC blogosphere denizen Chris Prevatt posted this news yesterday over at TheLiberalOC.com:

At the Democratic Party of Orange County's Biennial Convention in Anaheim today, Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook will challenge Congressman Dana Rohrabacher for his 46th Congressional District seat.
The inevitable -- and totally off-base -- comparison to he 1994 Dornan-Sanchez contest has already popped up in the comments to Chris' post.

I serve with Debbie on the OC Parks Commission. I like her. She's nice, smart and direct. But she's has approximately zero chance of beating Dana Rohrabacher. The numbers just aren't there.

Let's start with the registration:

Republicans:        132,902      46.5% 
Democrats:           83,285       29.2%
Decline-to-State:   56,160       19.7%
Let's look at past election results under the current 46th Congressional District lines (which extend into LA County):

2006
Dana Rohrabacher     81,674    62.2%
Jim Brandt                44,611    34.0%

2004
Dana Rohrabacher     121,558    63.5%
Jim Brandt                  58,410    30.5%

2002
Dana Rohrabacher     76,332    63.7%
Gerrie Schipske         38,854   32.4%
The picture wasn't any different in 2000 when it was the all-OC 45th CD:

Dana Rohrabacher     136,275    62.1%
Ted Crisell          71,066    32.4%
As you can see, in election after election, Dana has squashed his Democratic opponent by about 30 points. He consistently runs far ahead of Republican registration, while the Democratic nominees stay around Democratic registration.

Chris Prevatt says "This is the first time that Dana will be challenged by an Orange County elected official."

Actually, that's not quite true. Back in 1992, Dana fielded primary challenges by then-Costa Mesa Councilman Peter Buffa and then-Huntington Beach Councilman Peter Green.

However, I think it may be the first time Dana's Democratic opponent has been an Orange County elected official.

But how does that change the dynamics of this congressional election in any meaningful way?

Having "Huntington Beach Mayor" as her ballot title might gain Debbie a few more points than earlier Democratic challengers, but the upshot is she'll be a higher profile Democratic sacrificial lamb who'll lose by 20-25 points instead of 25-30 points.

As for the Dornan-Sanchez comparison: give me a break. The only similarity is you have a woman Dem v. male Rep.

But by all means, I encourage as many Orange County Democrats as possible to pour their time, energy and money into Debbie Cook's campaign.

Comments

OCNewsJunky said:

Mr.Rohrbacher is one of the most upstanding men I know. Although, I don't know this Ms. Cook, just reading the word "Liberal" tells me she doesn't stand a chance.

I only wished I live in his district so I could vote for him, but we have a pretty good guy in Campbell.

Leung said:

No way, no how. Rohrabacher will be in this office until he hands it off to one of his kids.

Cook's table pounding for the carbon religion, the global warming hoax and the peak oil myth with only make a run against Dana look that much more foolish. She'd be smarter to move and take on anyone else.

Robin said:

Dana Rohrabacher is a Huntington Beach icon. He will be elected again in a 2008 landslide.

OCVoter said:

Debbie Cook a Loretta Sanchez? That's laughable.

First of all, people in the 46th actually show up to vote.

Second of all, the registration is WAY different than the '96 Dornan/Sanchez race.

And finally, to what group of constituents is she going to appeal? She isn't a minority, hasn't set up camp with the protestors and has next to no name ID oustide of Huntington Beach. It may be the largest city in the district, but there are a lot of voters in LA county and the rest of the 46th.

My confident prediction is with Rohrabacher by 28 points.

Paul Lucas said:

Dana is going to have to actually campaign this time around. Debby is a hugely popular woman in HB to all constiutents Dem or Rep. Granted, she has a very steep hill to climb but she is going to give Dana a real run for his money this time around. This is going to be a very interesting election season with the 1st supervisor district, Loretta v Jim Gilchrest, Dana V Debby, and Measure D which will have effects whether it passes or not.

OCVoter said:

Paul, last time I checked, Dana is hugely popular man in the 46th district to all constituents, Dem or Rep. I think the 46th district is about 450,000 people more than just Huntington Beach.

As a former Huntington Beach resident, I'd venture to say that Cathy Green and Gil Coerper are probably more known and popular. Just food for thought.

She's toast before the race even starts.

Anonymous said:

Cook might be just building up a campaign operation designed to hit in 2010.

If Dems can take the 1st supervisorial in November, then they can set their sites on 2010.

Daly wins an open seat in the 4th while Cook challenges Moorlach in the 2nd.

A bad year for Republicans in 2010 could mean the Dems win a 3-2 majority away from the 5-0 Republican board in only 2 years.

Paul Lucas said:

OCVoter,
Dana isn't that popular anymore. Jim Brandt took a bite out of him in the last two elections. Moreover, The slide of popularity for Republicans in general nationwide is going to help Debby more than anything.

Debby is very well known in many areas of the district other than HB. That being said, I think that Dana R is still somewhat safe but will really feel the heat in this election cycle since it is a Presidential election and more Dems and Reps and everyone else are crossing over to the Dem side of the ballot to make their marks.

One thing for sure, Debby Cook is going to get alot of volunteers out int his election to walk and phone bank for her. I predict that she will come within striking distance of a victory.

Jubal said:

Paul:

Dana's percentage doesn't change whether it's a presidential or non-presidential election. Jim Brandt didn't do any better than Demo nominees before him.

Cook Not Popular With This HB Resident said:

Debby is a hugely popular woman in HB to all constiutents Dem or Rep.

As someone who has lived in HB since 2002, I can tell you the City Council is not focused on the right stuff.

They passed some bill that made it illegal to own a dog, cat or RABBIT that isn’t spade or neutered and the few times I have seen road work done, it is during rush hour.

Lastly, no matter how many times I call the city, they refuse to send someone out to stop the illegals from rummaging through my garbage bins.

I'm sure it's just a matter of time before my identity is stole. Forget about our privacy.

I don't think Cook is anywhere near ready for a promotion.

ex surf city resident said:

How Debbie does all depends on her stance on illegal aliens. If she favors amnesty like most Dems, then Dana will crush her like a grape.

Chris said:

Everybody thought Dornan was a lock back in the day and quite honestly there are a lot of similarities between Dornan back then and Dana in the present. Just because he has an R next to his name isn't sufficient anymore. The times they are a changing. "Uphill battle" Yes, closer than you thing, absolutely.

Jubal said:

Everybody thought Dornan was a lock back in the day...

No, they didn't. Dornan thought Dornan was a lock. He ignored early warnings from OC Republicans that Loretta Sanchez wasn't the usual bozo opponent put up by the Dems, and he needed to take her seriously. it was a warning he ignored too late, and as Sanchez campaign manager John Shallman admitted afterward, that permitted Loretta to get the traction she needed to attract national money.

"Uphill battle" Yes, closer than you thing, absolutely.

Like I said, I hope OC Dems pour lots of time, money and energy into Debbie's race. It might even shave Dana's victory margin to 20 points.

Joseph Neri said:

Debbie Cook supports energy conservation because it makes sense: Energy conservation means saving money. It may have passed everyone's notice but So Cal Edison got another rate increase approval back in August which they postponed to January, due to high use of electricity during the fire season. Congress is currently debating the renewable tax credits for alternative energy industries and Dana is planning to vote against that.

Voting for Dana is throwing away your money.

Kevin Carlin said:

Debbie Cook has distinguished herself in Huntington Beach repeatedly, and she is savvy enough to give Dana a run for his money.

Let's hope Dana is overconfident and asleep at the wheel. He's got a fight on his hands, overwhelming Republican registrants or no.

I am a lifelong Republican, and I would vote for Debbie in that contest all day long.

Don't forget Harriet said:

Harriet Weider was the front runner for that race in 1988 when Dana was an interloper from Palos Verdes, where he grew up.

So it is not unusual for Rohrbacher to best local elected officials with much larger bases than Debbie Cook.

Concerned in HB said:

Having met and sat in a meeting with Ms. Debbie Cook, I found her views of self preservation and true lack of interest / concern for the safety of the individuals living in my neighborhood to be appalling and somewhat criminal for a community leader, not to mention her lack of response to the early warnings and complaints from residents / citizens regarding the Yorktown Condominium scandal which ultimately landed one of our previous Mayors in prison.
It was and is clear that Ms. Cook was and is extremely out of touch with those of us who do not live in Seacliff or in a gated community where crime is at a minimal and cars aren’t racing up and down the street.
She has on several occasions voted to halt several projects only to then vote yes, changing her mind and costing additional funds, resources and time due to her inability to make a timely, consistent decision.
Although I am a proud Republican, there are several Democrats whom I have great respect for and would I feel make a great Congressman or Congresswomen, unfortunately Ms. Cook's extremely liberal views, voting record, arrogance and proven self preservation attitude is not one that would best serve the people of our community and frankly scares the hell out of me.

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