CD47 Watch: Jim Gilchrist Pulls Papers To Challenge Loretta Sanchez
Posted by: Jubal | 02/15/2008 4:42 PM
OC Blog first broke the story two months ago (December 10) that Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist was exploring running against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in the 47th Congressional District.Now, he has taken the first steps by pulling papers from the OC Registrar of Voters (H/T to TheLiberalOC.com).
Back in December a Gilchrist strategist laid out the scenario for a Gilchrist victory, but color me skeptical. Real skeptical. It would take a perfect storm for a controversial, polarizing lightning rod like Gilchrist to beat Sanchez.
CD47 is 42.8% Democratic and 35.5% Republican.
Loretta's winning margins over the past four elections:
2006There are currently 87,895 Democrats and 72,851 Republicans in the district -- so turnout hasn't exactly been stellar. Like any other district, it's higher in presidential years.
Sanchez 47,134 62.3%
Tan Nguyen 28,485 37.7%
2004
Sanchez 65,684 60.4%
Alexandria Coronado 43,099 39.6%
2002
Sanchez 42,501 60.9%
Jeff Chavez 24,246 34.9%
2000
Sanchez 70,381 60.2%
Gloria Tuchman 40,928 35%
I think Loretta is beatable. But this probably isn't the year. Democrats are psyched and that will drive their turn-out to higher-than-normal levels. Plus, the nature of Gilchrist's politics will boost Latino turnout against him -- and whichever other Republicans happen to be on the ballot.
We may never know if Loretta can be defeated if, as expected, she's runs statewide in 2010. But Democrats who laugh at the suggestion that Loretta is vulnerable should remember that Republicans used to laugh at the regular Democratic claims that this year they were going to beat Bob Dornan...until they happened to nominate (almost by accident) someone named Loretta Sanchez.
In a district like CD47, it takes the right candidate and the right circumstances. Loretta had them in 1996. I don't think Republicans will have that combination this year, but 2010 is an entirely different matter.
CATEGORY:
CD47 Watch
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
Matt,
Loretta will beat Gilchrist this year and kick Van's ass in 2010. Bring it on.
Matt,
Gilchrist has anyone around him who you could deem a "strategist"? Who might that be?
How do you spell term limits? G-i-l-c-h-r-i-s-t,.
Jim:
If you are reading this, take it from an old friend (remember the little green men?) and please save whatever dignity you might have left as a human being and give up your campaign for congress. Times have changed and even you must know that you no longer have the "240 million supporters" you once claimed. The only chance you have to win a seat in congress is if Loretta Sanchez dies of laughter or it's sitting on top of a toilet. Face it, I'm the best friend you have left and I have almost no respect for you whatsoever! Your shtick has run its course. Your bizarre temper tantrums and crazy rants were once hilarious, but now most everybody is bored by you. Please bow out and let some other, fresher, lunatic take your place!
Sincerely,
John Earl
Will the KKK be endorsing in this race?
Jubal, your hyperlink to the old post is off, please check it again.
CD47 needs to be return to our Republican party. It might take some work but we are ready for a good fight in 2010. I hope Jim Gilchrist will do well in this race.
When did Jim Gilchrist register as a Republican?
Last time I recall him running for Congress (in another district) he was a registered "American Independent" Party member.
Gilchrist running for the 47th will be the sound of music to Loretta Sanchez: the sound of Kaching, kaching, kaching from her campaign coffers. I couldn't think of a worse candidate for the GOP to put up against her. Gilchrist as an opponent will probably double the amount of contributions Loretta will be able to generate. Gilchrist as an opponent will drive up turnout in the latino community. Gilchrist as an opponent will allow the Dems to put Gilchrist as a poster boy for the Republican Party throughout California.
So thank you Jim Gilchrist. And if there are any more of you, send 'em down to Antonello's on Monday for some cherry pie and have them run in other O.C. seats.
John Earl wants lots of illegal aliens to keep on coming. He is a poverty pimp who wants to grow his hotel union. The more illegals that join his union, the richer he gets. Mr. Earl is a true capitalist who knows a good opportunity when he sees it. Jim Gilchrist is someone who would get in his way.
Dear Mr. Mao:
I haven't worked for the hotel union for 6 years. I am not an organizer for any union.
Hopefully, Pete Wilson will join Gilchrist on the campaign trail. Maybe they will wear matching white hoods.
Here's to setting back the CA GOP another generation!