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Looks Like It's All-Systems-Go For Joe Dunn Supervisor Run

Posted by: Jubal | 01/07/2008 5:48 PM

joedunn.jpgAfter returning last week from my Christmas holiday from blogging, I started thinking about former state Sen. Joe Dunn and his putative challenge to Sup. Janet Nguyen's re-election. So, I started looking into the lay of the campaign land.

Art Pedroza posted on Saturday night that Dunn is going to run, and my own nosing around leads me to the same conclusion that Dunn is definitely in. Apparently a poll has been conducted and the results are very favorable to a Dunn candidacy. That was likely the final tipping point for Dunn to jump in.

I don't think Joe Dunn is the ten-foot tall candidate, but he'll be a formidable opponent for Janet Nguyen. Nick Berardino, the general manager of the Orange County Employees Association, said last month on Red County Radio that if Dunn runs the OCEA will back him, and he expected the other unions would, as well. At an Iowa caucus watching party last week, Dunn swung by and was seen huddling with Nick and Tony Bedolla, political action man for the OC firefighters union, no doubt discussing Dunn's impending candidacy.

I've heard the same things Art mentions in his post: namely, that other central OC Democratic electeds like Sen. Lou Correa and Assemblyman Jose Solorio aren't thrilled about the prospect of a Dunn for Supervisor candidacy. I don;t they would openly oppose his candidacy or even refuse to endorse him.

I also don't think they want Dunn to win, or that (left to their own devices) they'll do anymore than sign an endorsement card.  After all, Supervisor Joe Dunn is simply one more competitor for Loretta Sanchez's congressional seat if she actually follows through with her plans to run statewide in 2010 -- and no one is under the illusion Dunn is running for Supervisor for any other reason than to position himself for Congress. Party loyalty is one thing, but a shot at an open congressional seat can be a once-in-a-political-lifetime opportunity.

I think it is highly unlikely that even a flawlessly run Joe Dunn campaign could beat Supervisor Nguyen in the June primary. Two major Vietnamese candidates on the ballot -- Janet and Trung -- should generate strong Vietnamese turnout. Given the low-turnout expected in June, that could, to an extent re-create the 2007 special election's perfect Vietnamese voter storm. So the Dunn game plan is likely premised on forcing Janet Nguyen into a November run-off and then banking on energized Democratic turnout in the November presidential election to lift Dunn ahead of Janet. We'll see: November is a long way off and county supervisors are very hard to beat.

Filing opens Feb. 12 and closes March 7. If I'm Joe Dunn, I'd announce as late as possible to give the various GOP players less time to pressure Trung Nguyen into dropping out (although I doubt such pressure would work in any case).

The "When Will Joe Dunn Announce" prediction contest is still open.

Stay tuned...

Comments

cra said:

I actually believe Trung has good chance in beating Janet the Menace! All republicans need to come together in supporting Trung. He is our top choice in replacing name only, hollow republican Janet.

Anonymous said:

Jubal,

It's a fantastic news. With Joe Dunn in the run, all GOP honchos will want Trung to be out. Otherwise he will reduce Janet's chance being re-elected in June '08 to nil. If she is luckily survived to be in the November run-off Democrats will definitely come out from the woodwork in drove and elect Joe. Her political career is absolutely over if Trung is in the game.

Irony, unless she mends the broken relationship, if any, with the Trannies she will spend all her political capital and real money for a forseeable loss.

If I were Trung I would take a high road and wait for an offer to come.

It's an interesting development for those of us, political animals, to observe.

cra said:

Joe Dunn is considering to enter the race because he feels he can beat unpopular and under achieving Janet!
The best move for our republican party is to elect one good strong candidate to replace Janet now.
Removing defunct incumbent Janet must be our priority.

Westminster Republican said:

I'm not voting Janet, if it between her and Joe, I'm voting fir Mickey Mouse.

Anonymous said:

If Joe Dunn or Trung Nguyen are so involved in the community, how come they aren't at one event in the district? It smells to me that they are trying to determine whether to run, and can't find enough endorsements or money to even announce. If they were strong candidates, they would be all over- but the only place I see their names is in this blog, and mentioned as possible candidates in the papers. Joe Dunn- get out of the private parties and first class trips to OC if you are really running. And, once again, the Dems resort to running an older white man in a majority minority district. Great idea Nick Beradino!

Anonymous said:

Anon at 9:55 PM,

Janet is the only one to lose job this election. You betcha.

Anonymous said:

Joe has a great record as a State Senator. He is an accomplished legislator who can provide the guidance and leadership necessary to finally improve the condition of this district. Real progress takes more than purchasing a swing set, or renovating a basketball court for a park, or refurbishing a dugout on a baseball field. While these improvements are nice they are part of the $1,000,000 every member of the Board gets to spend on their district.

But the district is ready for real change that will impact and improve the lives of our citizens. The infastructure is crumbling, public facilities are deteriorating, people are unable to enjoy the basic elements of the American dream. The ugly truth in this district is citizens are used as pawns in political feuds by a handful of ambitious self interested politicians. What is left is a community of casualties.

cra said:

Trung will be the best supervisor for our district. Trung is ready to re build the integrity that has been lost for some time by the defunct incumbent.
He will introduce positive changes to improve fiscal health for our county and start working on the depleted / neglected important projects immediately. My election card shows Trung can beat both Janet and Jon.

Anonymous said:

"The infastructure is crumbling, public facilities are deteriorating, people are unable to enjoy the basic elements of the American dream. The ugly truth in this district is citizens are used as pawns in political feuds by a handful of ambitious self interested politicians. What is left is a community of casualties."

Anon @ 8:53 you're describing SanTana, right? You ought to be aiming your sights at the current (Democratic) regime in City Hall rather than the County Hall of Admin.

If elected to the Supes the latest Great White Hope (cf Tom Umberg) will be able to do very little to improve the Santa Ana dystopia.


Anonymous said:

Two previous posts have already played the race card before Joe has announced. Race in this election will be an issue not because it is relevent but because it will be exploited by those self serving politicians that will exploit it to be elected. I would not make assuptions that the residents of the first district will accept being manipulated based on ethnic or racial lines. In fact once many of the residents learn that certain politicians are promising each other to deliver groups to each other based on ethnicity e.g. "if you support me I will deliver the Vietnamese vote, or if you support me I will deliver the hispanic vote, or the anglo vote" the residents will become offended and will look to the canidate that will help them and their children the most. I think the ehtnic bargaining and trading will back fire.

Anonymous said:

Janet is done in this district. Joe dunn will trounce her in November.

Anonymous said:

Anonymous 1:53,
What did Joe do for this diversified district's constituents when he was a legislator? If he served them well he should receive their supports. If not, he shouldn't. It is unfortunate that you tried to paint it as a race issue. Too bad.

rebecca said:

Matt, it's a year Dems will be happy to turn out at the polls whenever we're needed, June or no. Cheers!

Anonymous said:

Trung Nguyen is a sad footnote in the Al Gore playbook of politics. Seriously, what has this guy done since claiming to win a race that he clearly did not?

Oh, all he's done since is sue the Republican that won the race and now sits on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

Trung, it's time to grow a beard, gain some weight and go into exile. Perhaps you can make a movie and make some money off of your extended 15 minutes of minor fame.

cra said:

Rebecca, As I have stated before, there is no joy in being a democrat in these days.
Your democrat leaders support killing unborn babies and destroying God - designed family structure with same sex marriage agenda!

Yes, cheers for democrats......and your children under their leadership.......... but when will you wake up?

cra said:

Anon.7:38, aka another paid consultant for Janet, why are you worried about Trung if he is nobody?
Is it your fearful heart or is it your guilty conscience? I think it's both.

Anonymous said:

Trung's supporters aren't worried about losing this seat to a Democrat, I am.

Republican said:

We know failing Janet will be a pure disappointment if we let her run again. Let's all support Trung to be our confident republican supervisor.

Missy said:

Your democrat [sic] leaders support killing unborn babies and destroying God - designed family structure with same sex marriage agenda!

You're off your game, pal. You forgot the most important fear-mongering point: the raising of the taxes!

My same sex marriage agenda got left out in the rain and is starting to mildew. I'm going over to Staples today to buy a new one.

jaime said:

Missy, it's not just a GAME but it's about a real THING when we are speaking on our family value.
All family loving republicans are here to proect already bleak future of our next generation living in California.
Ofcourse, we are against the tax increases but it can not replace the value of our family.
Remember,the family members inside the building makes it a HOME.

Missy said:

Jaime, you're right that it's not a game. It's a joke. It's a joke the way you cReeps repeat the same unoriginal talking points over and over.

I take it back -- it's a crime. It's a crime that you try to convince people that you have values. The only value you heterosexists have is hate.

I am a "straight" woman married to a "straight" man with two "straight" kids. But I know plenty of REAL families that contain gays, lesbians, bisexuals, or transgender people.

These families have just as much value as anyone else's, and their houses are homes just as much as yours is.

Minus the hate, of course.

Tolerance of bad behavior within GOP own ranks said:

The Democrats are all thinking two steps ahead of us and trying to shpae the 2010 Congressional race. We should too.

The OCR wrote a great piece today on John Campbell saying that, "GOP's problems are caused by its abandonment of principle and tolerance of bad behavior within its own ranks."

It's only a matter of time before Janet's name appears in the news next to Mike Carona and Chris Street for more of her "bad behavior"

Let's replace her with a Republican who works with the rest of our GOP team and with Van Tran's team to take back that Congressional seat.

Jaime said:

Missy, you are wrong. It is not a crime but it is a SIN!

Now, we DON'T hate gays and lesbians as I have many good friends who are gays and lesbians.
However, we can not re-define the meaning of the God created "marriage" or the meaning of "woman" and "man". This is WRONG! It is wrong for us and to our children.
If the words from the bible sound sreepy to you, I can not help you with that..... it's your spirit. Remember, we don't hate others who are different.
As christians, we are taught to truly love them from bottom of our hearts because Jesus first loved us.... all sinners.
I hope the love of Jesus will flourish in your family and your friends. In the name of Jesus we all pray. Amen.

Janet's in Trouble said:

Janet Nguyen doesn't seem to get it. She's in trouble and is a defective candidate. To ad further complications to her re-election, there are rumblings that multiple Viet candidates are planning to run for this Supervisorial seat, Trung Nguyen included.

cra said:

Trung Nguyen is humble and intelligent...... He will make a good supervisor. Let's all support Trung!

cra said:

Trung Nguyen is humble and intelligent...... He will make a good supervisor. Let's all support Trung!

anonymous said:

Janet' name with Carona? I don't have to look into the future, I can read the newspaper for myself which always mentions Schroeder and Carona. Connect the dots..... Schroeder and Trung is next. If Trung was a smart candidate, he'd hire a clean consultant instead of a dirty one that spends his time out of the country and defending lawsuits against his dirty two-timing boss. Trung, where is your complaint over your own consultant and his campaign violations?

Jubal said:

cra:

No offense, but your comments are beginning to look silly.

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