A Meaningful GOP Convention

In sifting through the political ashes of Iowa and New Hampshire, it appears that when Republican delegates arrive in St. Paul, Minnesota for the opening days of the GOP National Convention they may be part of a historic wide-open and politically brokered convention.

As of today's date, it seems unlikely that anyone can win enough delegates to assure a convention victory.  A current recap of GOP candidate's fortunes:

Fred Thompson- A likeable conservative, but his lack of passion and energy did not play well in Iowa and New Hampshire and now his campaign is on life support.

Ron Paul- He may have the right economic tonic for our nation, but he can't get beyond a 10% protest vote.

Mitt Romney- He put all of his eggs in an unsuccessful early-primary strategy.

Rudy Giuliani- He has the flip-side of the Mitt Romney strategy: bypass the early primaries and wait for Florida and Super-Tuesday.  His early front runner status is lost.  He will win some key states on Super-Tuesday, but not nearly enough.

Mike Huckabee- Huge kudos for making it this far and he will win a pile of delegates...but his candidacy won't do much outside the Bible-Belt.  He is too regional a candidate to win it all out right.

John McCain- He has the momentum, but unless he sweeps Michigan, South Carolina and Florida (an unlikely prospect) his resurrection won't be enough to dominate Super-Tuesday.

So where does that leave our nomination process?

Thomas Dewey's nomination in 1948 was on the third ballot.  This was our last convention to go beyond a first ballot nomination, 60 years later history will likely repeat.

As the realization sets in that a first ballot convention nomination is unlikely, look for the top tier candidates to start wheeling and dealing.  McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani will have the most delegate chips in this wild political poker game.  If one of those three gets razor close, it might deal Romney into the mix.

Of the top tier GOP candidates, McCain and Giuliani seem to have the most gravitas.  Will one of them be able to recruit Governor Huckabee as their Vice-President running mate?  Can Mitt Romney win just enough delegates to be relevant to the new dynamic?
Or can either Giuliani or McCain check their ego at the door and become the other man's running mate?  One can even envision a McCain (Pres.)/Giuliani (V.P) ticket established by a private pledge from Senator McCain to Rudy to not seek a second term due to age considerations.

The 1952 convention featured fistfights between Dwight Eisenhower and Robert Taft supporters.  The 1976 convention was a first ballot squeaker between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan.  2008 could feature multiple ballots, but perhaps an alliance between 2 front runners could end the suspense early.
 
One thing is for sure. Those of us who are committed political junkies will certainly get our fix between now and the convention in St. Paul, Minnesota.

John Lewis, California State Senator Ret. served in the California State Legislature for 20 years.  He is now President of Orange County based Lewis Consulting Group. He has not endorsed in this years presidential election.