Dunn Decision Puts OC Dems Behind The 8-Ball
Posted by: Jubal | 01/11/2008 5:24 PM
Former state Sen. Joe Dunn's decision not to run for Supervisor really puts Democrats in a pickle, at least in my opinion. The 1st District is only supervisor district where Democrats are competitive by simple virtue of registration:
Now that Dunn is out, any other Democrat who might have run is faced with the prospect of less than five months to put together a campaign capable of coming in second to Janet while denying her an outright majority and then going on to defeat an incumbent Supervisor in the general election -- a rare feat indeed in Orange County politics.
The first name that crops up is Santa Ana Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez. I don't want to say she's unpopular in OC Democratic circles, but let's just say she's the object of strong opinions. I left a message on her cel phone to ask how Dunn's decision impacts her plans, but we'll see if she calls me back.
Alvarez's decision will likely hinge on the success or failure of Measure D, the Santa Ana ballot initiative that if passed would give her a third term on the city council (she is currently due to be termed out at the end of 2008).
If Measure D fails and Alvarez is looking at being termed out of office at the end of 2008 , she might decide to roll the dice and run against Janet, hoping to force a run-off and eke out a November win on the strength of Democratic turn-out.
But that's still a real gamble, and Alvarez might be reluctant to acquire the stigma of a three-time loser, having failed in back-to-back Assembly races in 2004 and 2006.
Dunn's decision and the dearth of alternative Democratic candidates brings us to a point my friend Claudio Gallegos writes about over at Orange Juice: the lack of a Democratic farm team:
Chris Prevatt has more over at TheLiberalOC.com.
There are now very few obstacles left in the way of Janet Nguyen's re-election. About the only thing that could knock her off track for a full four year term is an adverse decision by the California Court of Appeals, which is due any day now.
Democrats: 82,349 39.2%As I'd written previously, Joe Dunn's prolonged decision-making process had the effect of freezing other potential Democratic candidates in place. It's hard to organize a campaign when everyone thinks the prohibitive Democratic favorite is likely to jump in.
Republicans: 80,571 38.3%
Decline-to-state: 39,404 18.7%
Now that Dunn is out, any other Democrat who might have run is faced with the prospect of less than five months to put together a campaign capable of coming in second to Janet while denying her an outright majority and then going on to defeat an incumbent Supervisor in the general election -- a rare feat indeed in Orange County politics.
The first name that crops up is Santa Ana Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez. I don't want to say she's unpopular in OC Democratic circles, but let's just say she's the object of strong opinions. I left a message on her cel phone to ask how Dunn's decision impacts her plans, but we'll see if she calls me back.
Alvarez's decision will likely hinge on the success or failure of Measure D, the Santa Ana ballot initiative that if passed would give her a third term on the city council (she is currently due to be termed out at the end of 2008).
If Measure D fails and Alvarez is looking at being termed out of office at the end of 2008 , she might decide to roll the dice and run against Janet, hoping to force a run-off and eke out a November win on the strength of Democratic turn-out.
But that's still a real gamble, and Alvarez might be reluctant to acquire the stigma of a three-time loser, having failed in back-to-back Assembly races in 2004 and 2006.
Dunn's decision and the dearth of alternative Democratic candidates brings us to a point my friend Claudio Gallegos writes about over at Orange Juice: the lack of a Democratic farm team:
So now us Democrats will be scrambling for a candidate to take on Janet Nguyen. The name being mentioned is Claudia Alvarez. If that is the best Democrat we can come up with, than we are in deep you know what. This only goes to show the need to develop a good farm team of viable and trustworthy Democrats to run for offices such as this. Sorry to see Dunn is not running, now is the time to learn our lesson and find real Democrats who we run as viable alternatives when a big name like Joe Dunn decides not to run. Claudia Alvarez is not a viable alternative, Miguel Pulido is not a viable alternative. The Republicans will take us apart if they are our the standard bearers of the party in a race like this.You can read the rest of Claudio's post here.
Chris Prevatt has more over at TheLiberalOC.com.
There are now very few obstacles left in the way of Janet Nguyen's re-election. About the only thing that could knock her off track for a full four year term is an adverse decision by the California Court of Appeals, which is due any day now.
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1st Supe District Watch
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
I wouldn't bet on Janet Nguyen having an easy time running for the First Supe seat. Nothing is that simple and straight forward in Central OC. The voters in this area are not predictable and are in fact, very fickled.
I predict that given Janet's negative karma and her conduct and pattern of bringing problems upon herself, repeatedly, don't be surprised if there will be a few more wrenches thrown at her.
One thing that Republicans and Democrats can agree on... NO on Crazy Claudia!
Say it ain't so Joe! Reports of Janet belting out that old Donkey song "Happy Days Are Here Again" are not greatly exaggerated.
This was quite the shocker. All systems were go. Good poll, activist base was into pavlovian mode, campaign carnies getting hyped up with dreams of 5th floor office space keeping them restless at night, OCEA ready to lock and load, trial lawyers and doctors--a motley crew--ready to flex their check writing muscles.
And then Dunn pulls a politicus interruptus. Nick is left holding his you know what. Political activists are left to wander like zombies in Dawn of the Dead. Trial lawyers scramble to file motions to compel Dunn to run.
Wealthy liberals get deep into their bottles of Jamesons. Middle class liberals get deep into their bottle of Bushmills. Working class liberals get deep into their 12 pack of Bud. The Chardonnay Campaign of Joe Dunn is done.
In a post-Dunn political world, the 1st S.D. may not be the promised land but it certainly isn't Sinai. Given Janet's legal and political troubles, a well funded Democrat could still be very competitive and win the seat. Claudio does not like Mayor Pulido or Council member Alvarez and neither do a number of liberal activists. But after the Dark Lord gets through with Janet--assuming she can even beat Trung again and assuming Trung doesn't win the lawsuit--neither slam dunk assumptions-Pulido(especially him) or Alvarez could make the run off and win in November if sufficiently funded. Miguel can raise a ton of money. Alvarez would need to make sure Nick gets out of the ICU he must be in tonight and get pumped up again and then make this a Latino financial and political priority seat.
I don't think Pulido will do this even though I'm fairly confident he would win the seat. He, like Curt, has found a policy and financial comfort zone while being alcalde. Why give up the bucks to be a zombie in the creative-policy free zone on the 5th floor?
Alvarez is not the only donkey the Dems can put forward. And if the Dems are smart, they won't limit their search to the councils or school boards but look to someone successful in the private sector. Time for a Democrat from the private sector to bring some new ideas to 10 Civic Center Plaza.
The key may be what the Democratic latino Troika of Sanchez/Correa/Solorio will do here. It was not a secret that the three of them-especially Correa-disliked Dunn but didn't have a Democrat who could run ahead of Dunn in June. Now here is their chance. Allowing Janet to have a hall pass guarantees that she gets nested in the 34thSD and 47thCD, one day to pop up and be Lou or Jose's nightmare on Brookhurst Street. They may weigh that fear against putting a Democrat in a spot to challenge one of the two(don't you think Claudia would love another shot at Jose?). And some cynics think Jose is going to be the next Democratic Supervisor so a Janet win isn't all bad for Jose.
But if the troika can agree on a candidate and actually put some muscle into their endorsements the Dem could win the seat. If the Dems are going to take the seat back this is the year to do it. Its going to be the best Democratic year since 1996, maybe even since 1976.
And Dunn decided to leave his bat in the rack. Regardless of anything else, Janet dodged a big Mauser bullet today.
Bladerunner,
It's a best blog I have seen for a long time with political humor and prediction. Thank you for an entertaining write-up.
Blade
You are right on the money!!! Outstanding post !!!!
Bladerunner:
You're right. The Dems will have other credible candidate options to go against Janet Nguyen, who is politically vulnerable.
One can't even assume that Trung will be the only Vietnamese candidate running against Janet either.
Mike Garcia, where are you? The First District needs our former Santa Ana City Councilmember!
Mike Garcia has not voter base and was an abject failure on the SA City Council. He was the guy you could count on not to understand the nuances of every single policy discussion.
I agree with Bladerunner: the dems ought to look to the private sector to find their woman/man.
I say we run Michelle Martinez against janet.
Charleslob, what are you talking about? Not only is Mike Garcia popular among Santa Ana voters, he is building a successful business in the private sector.
Mike Garcia for Supervisor!
Anonymous @ 5:49:
I respect Mike b/c he tried to challenge Mayor Pulido. However,as usual, Mike didn't actually think about how he would do that before acting and the mayor summarily had him withdraw from therace. It was a pathetic, sad and humbling experience for Mike.
Mike is now going door to door to cities across Southern California trying to get them to hire his boss as a land use consultant. I'm not sure that qualifies as a success in the private sector.
Mike did something that many politicians do not do today when his hat was briefly in the ring against Pulido, he acted from the heart. If Mike were to express his interest in running for Supervisor, he would have far more support than any other Democrat on the radar screen. He is union-friendly and did not vote with Pulido every single time like some of the current puppets on the Council.