Dunn Won't Run For Supervisor
Posted by: Jubal | 01/11/2008 2:02 PM
Peggy Lowe over at Total Buzz reported that former state Sen. Joe Dunn will not challenge Sup. Janet Nguyen's re-election.
Wow. This has got to be a huge relief for Janet. I think she'd have beat Dunn in a November run-off, but Dunn was her toughest opponent.
UPDATE: I'll be discussing Dunn's decision on the weekly Red County Radio Roundtable today at 3:30 p.m. with our regular guests Adam Probolsky and Nick Berardino. We'll also take up the topic of OC Treasurer Chriss Street's continuing troubles and Sup. John Moorlach's proposal to establish a mini-FPPC to regulate county political campaigns.
If you want to listen live, click here.
UPDATE 2: Peggy put a call into the OC Democratic Party and got some brave talk about how the 1st Supe District ought to be Democratic "numberswise."
Uh, that's a stretch. The two parties are almost dead even in registration. The Dems have a 2,000 vote advantage: 82,349 to 80,571. For those who prefer percentages, the 1st is 39.2% Democratic and 38.3% Republican.
To be precise, what DPOC Executive Director Melahat Rafiei told Peggy was, "We should really have two out of the (five) supervisors, numberswise."
I assume she means the 4th Supervisor District. While that seat will likely go Democratic due to the absence of any announced GOP candidate to run against OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (other than the possibility of soon-to-be-retired Sen. Dick Ackerman), the 4th District won't go blue because of the numbers. The GOP has an 18,000 vote advantage there: 108,375 Republicans versus 90,958 Democrats.
If the 4th goes blue, it will be due to Tom Daly's proven ability to attract significant Republican support in non-partisan races.
Wow. This has got to be a huge relief for Janet. I think she'd have beat Dunn in a November run-off, but Dunn was her toughest opponent.
UPDATE: I'll be discussing Dunn's decision on the weekly Red County Radio Roundtable today at 3:30 p.m. with our regular guests Adam Probolsky and Nick Berardino. We'll also take up the topic of OC Treasurer Chriss Street's continuing troubles and Sup. John Moorlach's proposal to establish a mini-FPPC to regulate county political campaigns.
If you want to listen live, click here.
UPDATE 2: Peggy put a call into the OC Democratic Party and got some brave talk about how the 1st Supe District ought to be Democratic "numberswise."
Uh, that's a stretch. The two parties are almost dead even in registration. The Dems have a 2,000 vote advantage: 82,349 to 80,571. For those who prefer percentages, the 1st is 39.2% Democratic and 38.3% Republican.
To be precise, what DPOC Executive Director Melahat Rafiei told Peggy was, "We should really have two out of the (five) supervisors, numberswise."
I assume she means the 4th Supervisor District. While that seat will likely go Democratic due to the absence of any announced GOP candidate to run against OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (other than the possibility of soon-to-be-retired Sen. Dick Ackerman), the 4th District won't go blue because of the numbers. The GOP has an 18,000 vote advantage there: 108,375 Republicans versus 90,958 Democrats.
If the 4th goes blue, it will be due to Tom Daly's proven ability to attract significant Republican support in non-partisan races.
CATEGORY:
1st Supe District Watch
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
Until we hear from the man himself this type of news can be testing-the-water feeler. It's also there to attract Democrats' attention. So far the DPOC ED already talked up about 2 seats on the Board.
Let's wait and see.
Peggy Lowe is the ace who snagged that scoop.
Doh! Thanks for the correction, Martin.
Props to Peggy!
8 More Years! 8 More Years! 8 More Years!
Who is going to tell Art Pedroza that Tom Daly will win the 4th Supervisorial District?
I wouldn't be so quick to congratulate Janet Nguyen. Given the history of this Supe District and Janet's extraordinary ability to screw up and alienate people, she is, for lack of a better term, a strong magnet for opponents to come out of the woodwork to challenge her.
The political road in and through this area is never smooth. Just ask those officials who represent this area.
Yes, Troubled Janet will lose against any credible candidate from either party.