Bladerunner On The Dems's Post Dunn Dilemma
Posted by: Jubal | 01/13/2008 9:30 AM
BR wrote an exceptional comment regarding Joe Dunn's bolt-out-of-the-blue decision not to run against Supervisor Janet Nguyen, which I thought deserved to be spotlighted in its own post:
Say it ain't so Joe! Reports of Janet belting out that old Donkey song "Happy Days Are Here Again" are not greatly exaggerated.
This was quite the shocker. All systems were go. Good poll, activist base was into pavlovian mode, campaign carnies getting hyped up with dreams of 5th floor office space keeping them restless at night, OCEA ready to lock and load, trial lawyers and doctors--a motley crew--ready to flex their check writing muscles.
And then Dunn pulls a politicus interruptus. Nick is left holding his you know what. Political activists are left to wander like zombies in Dawn of the Dead. Trial lawyers scramble to file motions to compel Dunn to run.
Wealthy liberals get deep into their bottles of Jamesons. Middle class liberals get deep into their bottle of Bushmills. Working class liberals get deep into their 12 pack of Bud. The Chardonnay Campaign of Joe Dunn is done.In a post-Dunn political world, the 1st S.D. may not be the promised land but it certainly isn't Sinai. Given Janet's legal and political troubles, a well funded Democrat could still be very competitive and win the seat. Claudio does not like Mayor Pulido or Council member Alvarez and neither do a number of liberal activists. But after the Dark Lord gets through with Janet--assuming she can even beat Trung again and assuming Trung doesn't win the lawsuit--neither slam dunk assumptions-Pulido(especially him) or Alvarez could make the run off and win in November if sufficiently funded. Miguel can raise a ton of money. Alvarez would need to make sure Nick gets out of the ICU he must be in tonight and get pumped up again and then make this a Latino financial and political priority seat.
I don't think Pulido will do this even though I'm fairly confident he would win the seat. He, like Curt, has found a policy and financial comfort zone while being alcalde. Why give up the bucks to be a zombie in the creative-policy free zone on the 5th floor?
Alvarez is not the only donkey the Dems can put forward. And if the Dems are smart, they won't limit their search to the councils or school boards but look to someone successful in the private sector. Time for a Democrat from the private sector to bring some new ideas to 10 Civic Center Plaza.
The key may be what the Democratic latino Troika of Sanchez/Correa/Solorio will do here. It was not a secret that the three of them-especially Correa-disliked Dunn but didn't have a Democrat who could run ahead of Dunn in June. Now here is their chance. Allowing Janet to have a hall pass guarantees that she gets nested in the 34thSD and 47thCD, one day to pop up and be Lou or Jose's nightmare on Brookhurst Street. They may weigh that fear against putting a Democrat in a spot to challenge one of the two(don't you think Claudia would love another shot at Jose?). And some cynics think Jose is going to be the next Democratic Supervisor so a Janet win isn't all bad for Jose.
But if the troika can agree on a candidate and actually put some muscle into their endorsements the Dem could win the seat. If the Dems are going to take the seat back this is the year to do it. Its going to be the best Democratic year since 1996, maybe even since 1976.
And Dunn decided to leave his bat in the rack. Regardless of anything else, Janet dodged a big Mauser bullet today.
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
I agree wholeheartly.
Joe Dunn would be the perfect political choice but not the only viable candidate who can retake the Suoe seat. I suspect that the Dems will grief over the "loss" of Dunn over the weekend and then move on to mobilize for a solid candidate for the June and November campaign.
If there is a run-off in November, Janet will be drowned by the anticipated Democratic Tsunami. Most likely she won't get over 50%+ in June with Trung Nguyen and others coming in. Her days are really numbered.
Mike Garcia for Supervisor!
Mike Garcia: stop posting anonomously or we will have Mayor Pulido take you out again.
However, if you and Claudia both decide to run, I'll grudingly give my vote to you.
So why haven't you added Bladerunner to your blogpen, Jubal?
Believe me, I've thought about it.
Better get him/her/it before someone does first...
Jubal--- Gracias. Coming from you its a great compliment although you must have written this post after your 4th bottle of Smithwicks.
Gustavo--Are you trying to say I should play Alan Colmes in Red County? I'm nobody's B, but assuming that's not what you meant, I'm flattered you would suggest the idea and that Jubal would even entertain it but...
I don't have the qualifications. I can't keep up with Jubal in military history trivia references. My Latin is rustier then the bike in my back yard. Assemblyman Devore and Team Taiwan will be so hemped up on the Irvine Armageddon in November that they'd require loyalty oaths for Shea & Choi. Whatever the shortcomings of the Agranistas & Krommunists, it would take water boarding to make me sign that puppy. And Jubal would most likely assign me, for good sport, to cover the pandering and hustling and at the parliamentary rules-challenged GOP Central Committee meetings, a step slightly below listening to fingernails scratching a chalkboard and a step slightly above covering the circular firing squads over at the Democratic Central Committee meetings.
And there is the minor matter of Red County wanting its bloggers to have political values that fall somewhere on the right side of the political spectrum. If this were the Bay area I think I would qualify. But in Red County, where people with 90% Chamber approval ratings are tarred with the "liberal" label, I'd be a stranger in a strange land.
"But in Red County, where people with 90% Chamber approval ratings are tarred with the "liberal" label, I'd be a stranger in a strange land."
BR, that's because Chamber approval ratings are usually based on how big a shill you can be for City Hall! Anyway you're learning!
Rusty Latin is the best kind - that way most folks will understand what you're talking about and still think you're smart.
Don't cave in too soon - your membership application to the illuminati is still under consideration.