An occupational affliction among election officials is keeping one eye alert for open rungs further up the political ladder.

The possibility of Rep. Loretta Sanchez's seat opening in 2010 (or 2012) if she seeks higher office has  naturally entered into the calculations of central OC politicians regarding the 1st Supervisor District race.

Chris Prevatt has an interesting post on the topic over at TheLiberalOC.com in which he raises the possibility that neither Sanchez nor Sen. Lou Correa would endorse a Joe Dunn for Supervisor race:

 

It is widely known in political circles that Congresswoman Sanchez would like to seek state-wide elected office in either 2010 or 2012. It is possible that Sanchez and Correa have allied in hopes that Correa secures the party nomination to fill her Congressional seat should she move on. They may fear that if Dunn is a sitting Supervisor that he might run for that seat and simply do not want to take the chance that he would be in a strong position to do so.

An additional factor is that Correa and Dunn (according to my sources) just plain don't like each other -- although in politics, personal dislike often gives way to personal interest.

Since central county is really the only part of OC where competitive partisan districts exist, the dynamics of the upcoming 1st Supervisor District race will naturally have a ripple on other seats.

On the GOP side, it is widely expected Assemblyman Van Tran will run for the 47th Congressional District when he is termed out in 2010 -- optimally in an open seat, or against an incumbent Loretta Sanchez if she backs away from a statewide run.

The prospect of Tran's candidacy has a freezing effect on the GOP nomination in the interim, as no serious candidate emerges. Van Tran will continue to develop his central OC operation's strength and effectiveness, but he has no motivation to support a strong GOP challenger to Loretta.

I'm sure it is also a factor in the Van-Janet conflict.  If Supervisor Janet Nguyen is re-elected next year to a full four-year term and Loretta runs for a different office in 2010, Janet would have a "free ride" shot at the 47th CD. In other words, Van would have a another major elected Vietnamese-American official as a potential competitor for the GOP nomination in the 47th CD.

But this dynamic is nothing new in politics, and is especially prominent in legislative districts due to term limits -- where it was more acute under the 1991 redistricting that "nested" two Assembly districts in each Senate district. I preferred that arrangement, but it did created a situation where the neighboring Assemblymembers viewed each other as potential opponents from Day one.

If nothing else, all this will make for great 1st Supervisor District blog fodder.