Jim Gilchrist To Run Against Loretta Sanchez?
Posted by: Jubal | 12/10/2007 1:55 PM
There's a match-up guaranteed to generate headlines -- and from what I'm told it's likely to happen.According to a source close to the incipient campaign, the Minutemen founder is going to run in the June primary for the GOP nomination in the 47th Congressional District in central Orange County, which has been held by Democrat Loretta Sanchez since 1996. Gilchrist has a nationally-known polling firm and some additional Beltway talent on board in addition to local campaign strategists, and preliminary opposition research is being conducted.
CD47 is 42.5% Democratic and 36% Republican.
This would be Gilchrist's second run for Congress. Readers will remember he ran as an independent in the 2005 special election for the 48th CD (precipitated by Chris Cox's appointment to run the Securities & Exchange Commission) in which he garnered 25% of the vote in the final round.
As George Bailey says in "It's A Wonderful Life," this is a very interesting situation!
The operating assumption among OC GOP politicos has been Assemblyman Van Tran will run for the 47th CD when he is termed out of the Assembly in 2010. A corollary assumption is Rep. Loretta Sanchez herself will seek statewide office in 2010 (she currently has opened a committee for that purpose) -- probably for governor.The view that this is "Van's seat" has kept the 2008 GOP primary in CD47 in a sort of stasis: no serious GOP candidate wants to get in unless they're going to receive serious support, and it's hard to obtain serious donor support when the expectation is Assemblyman Tran will run for what may well be an open seat it to years -- so why spend hundreds of thousands, or possibly millions, of dollars now against an incumbent?
So how does a Gilchrist dynamic impact these calculations? Does the GOP establishment embrace the controversial Gilchrist?
Turning Back The Clock?
I'm one of those Republicans who still worries about increasing our share of the Latino vote and I would be considered as left-of-center (in the context of the GOP) on immigration. My initial reaction is a Gilchrist candidacy in CD47 is a gift to Loretta Sanchez and the Democrats. It'll gin them up and enable Loretta to talk about her ethnicity rather than defend her voting record, and in the end make the already difficult task of reversing the GOP slide among Latinos that much harder.
More about that in a later post.
And What About Van Tran?As for Van Tran, he'll be focused on employing his formidable central OC political operation to help Trung Nguyen's challenge to Supervisor Janet Nguyen's re-election, which is on the same June primary ballot in the overlapping 1st Supervisor District.
I doubt Van Tran would accelerate his plans and jump in to the race head off the nomination of a hard-line anti-illegal immigration activist in the central OC district -- the most Latino and Democratic one in Orange County. For one, Van would have to give up his Assembly seat two-years early, and secondly, Gilchrist is a long-shot to beat Loretta.
The question for Van is how much or how little to help Gilchrist? Van has eyed that seat for years, so a Gilchrist upset isn't on his list of favorite things. Given his background, it would be impossible for Gilchrist to talk about anything other than immigration even if he wants to, and that energizes Latinos for Loretta. Does Van want that to splatter on him?
On the other hand, if Van is too stand-offish and Gilchrist comes closer than expected to winning, will Van open himself to accusations that he undercut Gilchrist.
Either way, a Gilchrist for Congress campaign upsets settled calculations in central OC.
I'll keep you posted.
CATEGORY:
CD47 Watch
Mr. Ayer registered as a Republican to be electable in an interim election with no incumbents. He did...
When Gilchrist in the much more Republican, much less Hispanic CD48 in 2005, his numbers were:
Republican John Campbell 41,450 44.7
Democratic Steve Young 25,926 28.0
American Ind. Jim Gilchrist 23,237 25.1
Impressive for an independent, but not exactly the stuff of victory. Due to both two years on the fringe of the media spotlight and the differing demographics, I'd be surprised if Jim did even this well.
Thus, Jim running for the 47th is a gift for Republicans: he's rabid, he's can't win, but he open the opportunity for OC Republicans to redefine themselves immigration issue in a manner much more palatable to the CD 47th electorate with doing any waffling.
That is, don't try to beat Loretta this time around. Rather, have an articulate Republican run, and let the noisy but ineffectual Gilchrist demonize said spokesperson as "soft" on immigration. Let Gilchrist, in the primary, loudly spout on talk radio and anyplace else he can grab a microphone, how the "machine" Republican doesn't want to be tough on immigrants.
Notice, the "true" Republican need not pander; simply endorse something like President Bush's plan or some other mainstream Republican plan and let the clown Gilchrist work himself into a frenzy rebranding Republicans on immigration.
For free.
I completely agree with you, Jubal. Considering the ethnic and political makeup of this district, Gilchrist doesn't have a chance.
Even many people (like me) who agree that we need control of our borders see Gilchrist as a firebrand and borderline racist who they'd never vote for.
Of all the districts to run in, why the 47th? He's certain to lose.
Look for Loretta to get close to 65% of the vote in this election. With higher than normal Latino turnout in a Presidential year, Gilchrist's candidacy will be quixotic at best. He will definitely make it a "colorful" race, bringing his followers. I can just imagine them wandering around the 47th and screaming accusations that any Latino that does not support Gilchrist is an illegal immigrant.
And going for the GOP nomination, I can imagine the powers that be in the GOP are still not too happy about him taking on their golden boy John Campbell. And now cutting into Van Tran's turf, you are correct in your assessment Matt, that will only burn more bridges from GOP insiders. And he will have the wrath of Schroeder on him, Gilchrist beware, you don't know the power of the Darkside.
Jubal, I know both Jim Gilchrist and assemblyman Van Tran.
If Jim beats Loretta Sanchez next year, we should be celebrating....... because he will rightfully deserve that seat.
Assemblyman Van Tran will be more than happy to see hard working republican to win over Loretta Sanchez........ because he truly wants to build respectful republican party.
This is another reason why we need to have a strong leaders like Assemblyman Van Tran..... and I support him with great pride.
Ohhhh please do this OC GOP...
You are close to going back to the Prop 187 days, where you lost hispanic voters for almost an entire generation. Your party is on the cusp of doing this again.
DRAFT JIM DRAFT JIM!
CRA:
You need to stop blowing the pixy dust on this blog. You are crazy to think Van wants a Reep to win this seat in '08.
devilsnightout, this is the primary reason why I have no respect for shallow minded Rats... I mean Democrats!
Van Tran's "formidable central OC political operation" can't help out Trung Nguyen, let alone a potential congressional bid - It's been divided among various other campaigns around the state.
Why is it Van's seat?
"Why is it Van's seat?"
Because he's the only Republican who can actually win it.
"Van Tran's "formidable central OC political operation" can't help out Trung Nguyen, let alone a potential congressional bid."
I'm sure that's EXACTLY what they want you to think. In the meantime they continue to register voters...
A Gilchrist candidacy is a GOP Christmas card to Loretta, a nice gift perhaps prompted by their political if not prurient response to the last few holiday cards she sent.
Gilchrist will be cannon fodder, much like past GOP candidates vanquished by Sanchez. Gilchrist will help solidify the Dem base in the District, something useful if Sanchez opts out of an increasingly powerful and senior House position for the Pachanga-like experience of running statewide in 2010.